What would an 1890s partition of the Ottoman Empire have looked like?

[WolfBear]

What would an 1890s partition of the Ottoman Empire have looked like? For instance, had Russia militarily intervened in the Ottoman Empire during the Hamidian massacres in the mid-1890s and negotiated with the other Great Powers to partition the Ottoman Empire right then and there.

There was one TL on AH.com that made an attempt at speculating at this, but what exactly do you think? Anyway, from that TL:

An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

Interesting update. Eagerly waiting for the maps...;)

www.alternatehistory.com

map #1: Anatolia and the Mashriq 1896

Red is British
Blue is French
White is Russian
Black is German
Purple is occupied/administered/demillitarized by the great powers+Switzeland jointly

Thin lines represent autonomous Kurd, Zaza, Yezidi, Druze and Turkmen emirates which neither the Europeans or remaining Ottoman officials are much involved in administering.

An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

If the Hejaz still official Ottoman, then? And what about that large island between the Straits and Smira areas? All of it is still "officialy" Ottoman. What will actually happen on the ground in Arabia will be covered in the next post or two. That island is Lesbos, the hometown of Djemal. It...

www.alternatehistory.com

Maps #2: the Balkans 1896

Next map: The Balkans

Red is Austrian Macedon

Pink is Bulgarian Thrace.

Blue is the Emirate of Albania

Light green are territorial gains by Montenegro

Dark Green Territorial gains by Greece in the Aegean

 

[Skallagrim]

The maps depicted in your links are creative, but ultimately pretty fanciful.


-- Albania is going to get screwed over, probably in favour of Austria-Hungary (getting everything North of Corfu).

-- This gives Austria-Hungary some gains that are marginally more sensible than that Macedinian protrusion.

-- Which in turn allows for Greece to get something more akin to what it eventually got after the Balkan Wars in OTL (including their Epirote claims).

-- Greece probably also gets that part of South-Western Anatolia that's marked as "international" here.

-- Cyprus is uncertain. Greece will have a decent claim, but Britain and/or France will almost certainly have other ideas.

-- Bulgaria gets Western Thrace and some more inland regions of Macedonia, and that's probably it.

-- French Levant is unlikely to extend into Anatolia proper.

-- Instead, Russia will want its Armenia to stretch all the way to the coast, including "Cilician Armenia".

-- The Black Sea coast, conversely, is probably not going to be included in Armenia, but spun off into a separate "Trebizond" by the Russians.

-- French Levant and British Mesopotamia may just out a little further North, ensuring that (after a few messy population transfers), they get all the Kurds and Russia gets all the Armenians.

-- German Palestine strikes me as unlikely. At this juncture, it may well be internationalised.

-- The Germans will probably be far more interested in favourable alliances and trade deals than in getting Palestine. At this point, Wilhelm II has his place in the sun. In fact, everything discussed here should ideally be resolved at a congress in Berlin. Where he looks good, gets of lot of prestige, but doesn't really try to grab much. And is rewarded with diplomatic and economic favours, instead. (Which he'll get in spades, because him agreeing to drop the Ottomans and side with the ones doing the partitioning is what makes all this go off without a major war.)

-- At any rate, the British will make damn sure that the Suez region gets included in the territory of Egypt (which they have under their thumb), and not Palestine.

-- Internationalised Straits Zone seems plausible enough. (But will cause Russian grumbling, which is why they'll want Med access via Armenia, and probably get it, too.)

-- Italy may jump in and get Libya early. (Greeks may want Cyrenaica, but they're already richly rewarded here, so presumably won't get it, unless they have truly formidable PR going on.)



Anyway, that's my take on this whole deal. Particulars will differ based on the exact scenario, obviously.

 

[WolfBear]

The maps depicted in your links are creative, but ultimately pretty fanciful.


-- Albania is going to get screwed over, probably in favour of Austria-Hungary (getting everything North of Corfu).

Will the Albanians be loyal A-H subjects like the Bosniaks were?

-- This gives Austria-Hungary some gains that are marginally more sensible than that Macedinian protrusion.

-- Which in turn allows for Greece to get something more akin to what it eventually got after the Balkan Wars in OTL (including their Epirote claims).

-- Greece probably also gets that part of South-Western Anatolia that's marked as "international" here.

-- Cyprus is uncertain. Greece will have a decent claim, but Britain and/or France will almost certainly have other ideas.

What would the Anglo-French propose for Cyprus?

-- Bulgaria gets Western Thrace and some more inland regions of Macedonia, and that's probably it.

-- French Levant is unlikely to extend into Anatolia proper.

Why not?

-- Instead, Russia will want its Armenia to stretch all the way to the coast, including "Cilician Armenia".

Does Italy get anything in Anatolia?

-- The Black Sea coast, conversely, is probably not going to be included in Armenia, but spun off into a separate "Trebizond" by the Russians.

Completely independent? Also, is Armenia itself likewise going to be completely independent?

-- French Levant and British Mesopotamia may just out a little further North, ensuring that (after a few messy population transfers), they get all the Kurds and Russia gets all the Armenians.

-- German Palestine strikes me as unlikely. At this juncture, it may well be internationalised.

-- The Germans will probably be far more interested in favourable alliances and trade deals than in getting Palestine. At this point, Wilhelm II has his place in the sun. In fact, everything discussed here should ideally be resolved at a congress in Berlin. Where he looks good, gets of lot of prestige, but doesn't really try to grab much. And is rewarded with diplomatic and economic favours, instead. (Which he'll get in spades, because him agreeing to drop the Ottomans and side with the ones doing the partitioning is what makes all this go off without a major war.)

-- At any rate, the British will make damn sure that the Suez region gets included in the territory of Egypt (which they have under their thumb), and not Palestine.

-- Internationalised Straits Zone seems plausible enough. (But will cause Russian grumbling, which is why they'll want Med access via Armenia, and probably get it, too.)

-- Italy may jump in and get Libya early. (Greeks may want Cyrenaica, but they're already richly rewarded here, so presumably won't get it, unless they have truly formidable PR going on.)

Makes sense.

Anyway, that's my take on this whole deal. Particulars will differ based on the exact scenario, obviously.

Excellent analysis!

 

[Skallagrim]

Will the Albanians be loyal A-H subjects like the Bosniaks were?

Depends on how they're treated. If the Habsburgs are smart, they treat the Albanians well.

What would the Anglo-French propose for Cyprus?

"MINE! MINE! MINE!"

Why not?

Adding that essentially "foreign" region to an already pretty diverse -- and messy -- prospective Syria would really be a disaster waiting to happen. And also, Russia will want that region pretty badly.

Does Italy get anything in Anatolia?

Do you see Italy doing anything particularly useful that earns them anything like that? If they contribute anything at all, they'll get Libya out of it, and that'll be a fair reward for their efforts.

Completely independent? Also, is Armenia itself likewise going to be completely independent?

Independent from Armenia. Not independent from Russia.

That said, both states would presumably be closely-held vassal states, rather than being directly annexed.

 

[WolfBear]

That said, both states would presumably be closely-held vassal states, rather than being directly annexed.

Any idea as to who their monarchs might be? Some Romanov princelings?

 

[raharris1973]

What would an 1877-1878 partition of the Ottoman Empire look like? What if Disraeli, stung by the effectiveness of Gladstone's Bulgarian Horrors campaign and his insinuation that Disraeli doesn't care because he wasn't born Christian, decides he can't take an anti-Bulgarian, pro-Ottoman stand, and the best Britain can do is take corresponding compensating shares of the Ottoman Empire for Britain in exchange for creation of enlarged Russian client states in the Balkans? Salisbury agrees it would be "backing the wrong horse" to try to limit Ottoman losses. Other powers, Austria-Hungary, Italy, France, inevitably stake their compensatory claims.

 

[raharris1973]

So the Russian's preference is really going to be for them to own the straits themselves, or secondarily, for them to remain Ottoman.

The thinking that they'd be an international zone comes from the idea that others, above all Britain, would veto it?

If so, I think that's why St. Petersburg in OTL was all like ''eff Lord Salisbury's ideas of intervening in the Ottoman Empire, no way is more Armenians a sufficient prize for us.'

In any case, how is the international zone of the straits occupied and an administered? An international naval flotilla with Marines from multiple powers, sort of like the Eight Nations Alliance of the Boxer Expedition?

 

[WolfBear]

In any case, how is the international zone of the straits occupied and an administered? An international naval flotilla with Marines from multiple powers, sort of like the Eight Nations Alliance of the Boxer Expedition?

Similar to how the international zone of Jerusalem was going to be administered in the 1947 Palestine Partition Plan, except with naval vessels? Though in 1947, the UN already existed. In the 1890s, there's not even a LoN yet.

Interestingly enough, one would think that even though Russia disliked Armenian nationalists in the 1890s, there was still logic in Russia supporting the creation of an independent Armenian state back then. Specifically, Russia could deport any troublesome Armenian nationalists and/or revolutionaries into this newly independent Armenian state so that they won't be causing any trouble for Russia any longer. Indeed, such a state would seem like a great dumping ground for Russia for such troublesome Armenian elements within Russia. Very Machiavellian, but also very effective!

 

[WolfBear]

So the Russian's preference is really going to be for them to own the straits themselves, or secondarily, for them to remain Ottoman.

The thinking that they'd be an international zone comes from the idea that others, above all Britain, would veto it?

If so, I think that's why St. Petersburg in OTL was all like ''eff Lord Salisbury's ideas of intervening in the Ottoman Empire, no way is more Armenians a sufficient prize for us.'

In any case, how is the international zone of the straits occupied and an administered? An international naval flotilla with Marines from multiple powers, sort of like the Eight Nations Alliance of the Boxer Expedition?

-- Internationalised Straits Zone seems plausible enough. (But will cause Russian grumbling, which is why they'll want Med access via Armenia, and probably get it, too.)

What about creating an independent Kingdom of the Straits with some neutral or at least relatively neutral European prince as its King? Heck, this King could even style himself a Neo-Byzantine Emperor if he would want to.

TBH, I sort of fantasize about the idea of reclaiming Constantinople for Christendom in the 18th, 19th, or early 20th centuries and creating a Neo-Byzantine Empire, even a miniature one exclusively centered on Constantinople and the Straits.

 

[raharris1973]

What would an 1890s partition of the Ottoman Empire have looked like? For instance, had Russia militarily intervened in the Ottoman Empire during the Hamidian massacres in the mid-1890s and negotiated with the other Great Powers to partition the Ottoman Empire right then and there.

There was one TL on AH.com that made an attempt at speculating at this, but what exactly do you think? Anyway, from that TL:

An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

Interesting update. Eagerly waiting for the maps...;)

www.alternatehistory.com

An execution preempted: A lethal Otsu incident, Russian empire centered TL

If the Hejaz still official Ottoman, then? And what about that large island between the Straits and Smira areas? All of it is still "officialy" Ottoman. What will actually happen on the ground in Arabia will be covered in the next post or two. That island is Lesbos, the hometown of Djemal. It...

www.alternatehistory.com

In the original AH.com TL you are grabbing this idea, and the maps, from, could you tell me what the in-story rationale for the partition of the Ottoman Empire is? What makes Russia in particular favor it? And Germany? How are the straits kept away from exclusive Russian control? How does Palestine end up German? Finally, since this is a brutal, thoroughgoing carve-up of the Ottoman Empire, leaving rump Turkey with less than OTL modern Turkey, but also less of a rump than even the treaty of Sevres, how long of a war do the powers need to fight against Turkey with what kind of losses to achieve these territorial amputations?

 

[WolfBear]

In the original AH.com TL you are grabbing this idea, and the maps, from, could you tell me what the in-story rationale for the partition of the Ottoman Empire is? What makes Russia in particular favor it? And Germany? How are the straits kept away from exclusive Russian control? How does Palestine end up German? Finally, since this is a brutal, thoroughgoing carve-up of the Ottoman Empire, leaving rump Turkey with less than OTL modern Turkey, but also less of a rump than even the treaty of Sevres, how long of a war do the powers need to fight against Turkey with what kind of losses to achieve these territorial amputations?

Unfortunately, I have only skimmed the relevant TL and thus can't answer these questions with much precision.