You can cumulatively alter three events in 20th century European history; which events do you alter?

sillygoose

Well-known member
Wilson was an idiot, though; that's the thing. A more rational US President would have agreed to the Lodge Reservations. Likely even Thomas Marshall had Wilson's stroke killed him in late 1919.

Whether the Lodge Reservations would have neutered the Versailles Treaty is really besides the point; the French Security Treaty is much more important here. I'd easily accept the LR in exchange for getting the FST ratified. A peacetime Franco-Anglo-American alliance would be quite formidable!
If he did the treaty would have fallen apart when the Euros protested and Wilson would have gotten nothing. That was the reason he couldn't have compromised. In hindsight to you the French security treaty is the most important thing, but Americans and even Wilson had different opinions. A peacetime Frano-British-US alliance wouldn't have lasted and pretty much fell apart anyway over reparations and the Ruhr issue. The only thing even making such a temporary alliance possible was fighting Germany without that boogey man they had too many divergent interests to actually have a binding treaty.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
If he did the treaty would have fallen apart when the Euros protested and Wilson would have gotten nothing. That was the reason he couldn't have compromised. In hindsight to you the French security treaty is the most important thing, but Americans and even Wilson had different opinions. A peacetime Frano-British-US alliance wouldn't have lasted and pretty much fell apart anyway over reparations and the Ruhr issue. The only thing even making such a temporary alliance possible was fighting Germany without that boogey man they had too many divergent interests to actually have a binding treaty.

Actually, IIRC, I seem to recall seeing an article (and/or a reference to this article) by some British and/or French diplomat(s) from 1919 or 1920 mentioned where they said that they would have accepted the ratification of the ToV by the US with any reservations since it would still be better than no treaty ratification and no US LoN membership at all. I can try finding this reference if you want. Not sure if I could, but I can try.

And would France have behaved the same way in 1923-1924 if it would have still had the US as its ally?
 

ShieldWife

Marchioness
1. Taft wins the 1912 election against Wilson, hopefully preventing many of the calamitous things that happened during his presidency.

2. Gavrilo Princip doesn’t assassinate Archduke Franz Ferdinand, thus hopefully preventing WWI and subsequently WWII.

3. I don’t know, so much will be changed by those two big events. Maybe I will just give my young 1999 self a few billion dollars 😏
 

Atarlost

Well-known member
Why not Teddy Roosevelt?
See, this is why I just said "Wilson loses," in my list. I don't think it matters if Taft wins or Teddy wins or someone else Teddy is willing to support wins the Republican nomination. Even a primary loss for Wilson is acceptable as long as it isn't to someone else with exactly the same policies and it's by a margin large enough to crush his national political ambitions.

An honest internationalist like Roosevelt does not get reelected in 1916. An isolationist continues to actually keep us out of war.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
See, this is why I just said "Wilson loses," in my list. I don't think it matters if Taft wins or Teddy wins or someone else Teddy is willing to support wins the Republican nomination. Even a primary loss for Wilson is acceptable as long as it isn't to someone else with exactly the same policies and it's by a margin large enough to crush his national political ambitions.

An honest internationalist like Roosevelt does not get reelected in 1916. An isolationist continues to actually keep us out of war.

Do you think that Hughes would have been a good compromise choice for the GOP in 1912?
 

Atarlost

Well-known member
Do you think that Hughes would have been a good compromise choice for the GOP in 1912?
I'm not nearly old enough to have been following that election so I can't say off hand and don't want to spend hours weighing primary candidates for an election more than a century past, but he's not Wilson so I'd have voted for him in the general if I was a voter at the time.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
As for me:

1. Have the Whites win the Russian Civil War.
2. Have the Poles be more successful in their post-World War I war with Russia, allowing them to expand up to the Dnieper River and create nominally independent pro-Polish Ukrainian and Belarusian puppet states.
3. Have Adolf Hitler get killed in 1923.

@stevep What are your thoughts on my list here? And what's your own list in regards to this?

I suppose that in place of #1 I could simply kill Lenin, but this would only work so long as someone else such as Trotsky is incapable of replacing Lenin. Meanwhile, a White-run regime, while likely not being pleasant, is likely to be a better deal for Russians than the Red regime in real life was. Russians would still be allowed to own private property and to emigrate, after all, and the transition back to democracy should be at least a little bit easier. Russians would also become really prosperous much faster.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Ideally I'd have Russia and Germany come to an understanding on the basis of the Bjorko Treaty and we avoid World War I as we know it in favor of localized Great Power wars, with Tsarist Russia giving the Ottomans the boot sometime in the 1910s and Japan in the 1920s. Germany, meanwhile, deals with France at some point. Also, just because it's me, Germany meddling in the Mexican Civil War sufficiently destabilizes the nation as to engender an American occupation and pathway to annexation.

Off-topic, but you don't think that there was ever any realistic chance in the 20th century for a French monarchical restoration of any kind (Orleanist, Bourbon/Legitimist, or Bonapartist), right?
 

stevep

Well-known member
@stevep What are your thoughts on my list here? And what's your own list in regards to this?

I suppose that in place of #1 I could simply kill Lenin, but this would only work so long as someone else such as Trotsky is incapable of replacing Lenin. Meanwhile, a White-run regime, while likely not being pleasant, is likely to be a better deal for Russians than the Red regime in real life was. Russians would still be allowed to own private property and to emigrate, after all, and the transition back to democracy should be at least a little bit easier. Russians would also become really prosperous much faster.

In terms of your own choices I would say have things go somewhat differently and the Provisional government survive to provide a viable republican government in Russia. That would avoid communism and also make any Nazi or other militaristic German revanchism unlikely to be a serious threat.

If you have the Whites win the CW and then lose significant territory to the Polish republic its likely to cause serious tension between the two which could be bad for both of them and everybody else as it means probably a revanchist and autocratic Russia and opens up options for such a state to have a temporary alignment with a German revanchist group.

If we can get a more stable Europe post-WWI then Hitler is likely to be irrelevant. He could come to power if things went badly but is likely to get stomped fairly quickly without an eastern alliance, especially if the great power in the east is hostile to such a Germany.

One issue is that POD1 could change so much that later PODs are irrelevant or have no bearing on the TL. For instance POD1 which averts most of the bloodletting and costs of the world wars could have POD2 or 3 being that PM XXXX's government in 1967-75 successfully carried out the British Luna landing programme. ;)

However for my choices say
1) some events in 1906/07 prompts war between the two alliance blocs. [This date so Germany is already committed to attacking France as their primary aim, resulting in an invasion of Belgium and hence bringing Britain into the conflict]. For reasons mentioned elsewhere this is better for France and due to the isolation of Germany from nitrate supplies its forced to make peace within say 12-18 months at most. Losses of blood and money and physical destruction is much less for all powers , most especially Britain which doesn't have the same time to mobilize massive amounts of troops. Germany sees territorial losses similar to OTL but Prussia is partitioned within Germany with a Rhineland state and independent Hanover restored along with possibly others. The Hapsburg empire also sees some losses, mostly in the Orthodox lands in the south but survives.

The short war does however show the shortcomings in aspects of the British military and even more its industry - with the lack of an home chemistry industry and obsolescence of the steel industry for instance forcing the government to encourage investment, end free trade and expand technical education.

2) Without the destruction of the Liberal Party as of OTL it remains the primary radical party and in the late teens and 20s' pushes more internal reforms and also a more liberal system in the empire. India gets dominion status in the 20's and some other nations are similarly pushed forward for self-government.

3) The lack of an overwhelming US dominance of financial markets means that when its stock market crashes it doesn't drag the world down with it. In turn the continuation of the rest of the world's economic activity makes US recovery quicker and more complete, although does mean that the reforms of the 1st Roosevelt administration are avoided so its prone to later problems.

That's about all I can think of for the moment.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
In terms of your own choices I would say have things go somewhat differently and the Provisional government survive to provide a viable republican government in Russia. That would avoid communism and also make any Nazi or other militaristic German revanchism unlikely to be a serious threat.

If you have the Whites win the CW and then lose significant territory to the Polish republic its likely to cause serious tension between the two which could be bad for both of them and everybody else as it means probably a revanchist and autocratic Russia and opens up options for such a state to have a temporary alignment with a German revanchist group.

If we can get a more stable Europe post-WWI then Hitler is likely to be irrelevant. He could come to power if things went badly but is likely to get stomped fairly quickly without an eastern alliance, especially if the great power in the east is hostile to such a Germany.

One issue is that POD1 could change so much that later PODs are irrelevant or have no bearing on the TL. For instance POD1 which averts most of the bloodletting and costs of the world wars could have POD2 or 3 being that PM XXXX's government in 1967-75 successfully carried out the British Luna landing programme. ;)

However for my choices say
1) some events in 1906/07 prompts war between the two alliance blocs. [This date so Germany is already committed to attacking France as their primary aim, resulting in an invasion of Belgium and hence bringing Britain into the conflict]. For reasons mentioned elsewhere this is better for France and due to the isolation of Germany from nitrate supplies its forced to make peace within say 12-18 months at most. Losses of blood and money and physical destruction is much less for all powers , most especially Britain which doesn't have the same time to mobilize massive amounts of troops. Germany sees territorial losses similar to OTL but Prussia is partitioned within Germany with a Rhineland state and independent Hanover restored along with possibly others. The Hapsburg empire also sees some losses, mostly in the Orthodox lands in the south but survives.

The short war does however show the shortcomings in aspects of the British military and even more its industry - with the lack of an home chemistry industry and obsolescence of the steel industry for instance forcing the government to encourage investment, end free trade and expand technical education.

2) Without the destruction of the Liberal Party as of OTL it remains the primary radical party and in the late teens and 20s' pushes more internal reforms and also a more liberal system in the empire. India gets dominion status in the 20's and some other nations are similarly pushed forward for self-government.

3) The lack of an overwhelming US dominance of financial markets means that when its stock market crashes it doesn't drag the world down with it. In turn the continuation of the rest of the world's economic activity makes US recovery quicker and more complete, although does mean that the reforms of the 1st Roosevelt administration are avoided so its prone to later problems.

That's about all I can think of for the moment.

For #2, is the Indian partition avoided? Also, are you sure that with a WWI that starts that early, Russia is actually going to be able to relieve enough pressure on France for France to avoid falling quickly? AFAIK, the Russian military was stronger in 1914 relative to 1905, and Russia itself was also less volatile in 1914 relative to 1905. I'm not sure that the situation has fully calmed down in Russia by 1906-1907.

Was the British Liberal Party comparable to Teddy Roosevelt's 1912 Progressive Party?
 

stevep

Well-known member
For #2, is the Indian partition avoided? Also, are you sure that with a WWI that starts that early, Russia is actually going to be able to relieve enough pressure on France for France to avoid falling quickly? AFAIK, the Russian military was stronger in 1914 relative to 1905, and Russia itself was also less volatile in 1914 relative to 1905. I'm not sure that the situation has fully calmed down in Russia by 1906-1907.

Was the British Liberal Party comparable to Teddy Roosevelt's 1912 Progressive Party?

Well I'm thinking of the impracticality of the entire plan plus that the French will have a far more rational defence plan plus that with less modern siege artillery the Belgium forts will be more of a struggle to take. As such France can stabilize a line and then it just becomes a slog until the Germans run out of munitions. Also while Russia will be weaker a German initiation of a new war would probably be a unifying aspect plus its unlikely that they would face much German pressure while they should be able to at least hold a line against Austria.

Not sure what would happen elsewhere with Italy and Turkey being the major unknowns. Italy could go either way and them staying with the CPs would be nasty, especially for France in the early stages. However their very vulnerable to sea power both in terms of trade and potentially attacks on their long coastline. They don't have Libya or the Dodecanese at the moment either so if they did they would lack foreign bases to threaten allied shipping other than two isolated bases in Eritrea and Somalia - although in theory the latter could possibly try and link up with the Germans in E Africa.

If Turkey joins the war then its a lot less developed and without the reforms that occurred after the Balkan wars at this point and the Young Turk revolt hasn't yet occurred so hopefully could be fairly easily held by the allies. There's also the possibility that it might prompt an earlier Balkan war with a combination of powers ganging up on them aided by the allies, possibly especially at sea. Also if Italy has stayed neutral initially they could then seek to join such a conflict given their interests in the Balkans and Libya.

PS - sorry forgot your 1st point. yes and no. They definitely wanted to do more for ordinary people but were still rather tied to free trade/laissez faire - albeit with an interest in government involvement in the economy - and were strongly opposed to military spending. The party was also somewhat divided between more traditional 'Whigs' and more radical figures such as Lloyd George. So there were some simularities but also a fair number of differences.
 
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WolfBear

Well-known member
Well I'm thinking of the impracticality of the entire plan plus that the French will have a far more rational defence plan plus that with less modern siege artillery the Belgium forts will be more of a struggle to take. As such France can stabilize a line and then it just becomes a slog until the Germans run out of munitions. Also while Russia will be weaker a German initiation of a new war would probably be a unifying aspect plus its unlikely that they would face much German pressure while they should be able to at least hold a line against Austria.

Not sure what would happen elsewhere with Italy and Turkey being the major unknowns. Italy could go either way and them staying with the CPs would be nasty, especially for France in the early stages. However their very vulnerable to sea power both in terms of trade and potentially attacks on their long coastline. They don't have Libya or the Dodecanese at the moment either so if they did they would lack foreign bases to threaten allied shipping other than two isolated bases in Eritrea and Somalia - although in theory the latter could possibly try and link up with the Germans in E Africa.

If Turkey joins the war then its a lot less developed and without the reforms that occurred after the Balkan wars at this point and the Young Turk revolt hasn't yet occurred so hopefully could be fairly easily held by the allies. There's also the possibility that it might prompt an earlier Balkan war with a combination of powers ganging up on them aided by the allies, possibly especially at sea. Also if Italy has stayed neutral initially they could then seek to join such a conflict given their interests in the Balkans and Libya.

PS - sorry forgot your 1st point. yes and no. They definitely wanted to do more for ordinary people but were still rather tied to free trade/laissez faire - albeit with an interest in government involvement in the economy - and were strongly opposed to military spending. The party was also somewhat divided between more traditional 'Whigs' and more radical figures such as Lloyd George. So there were some simularities but also a fair number of differences.

Excellent analysis, Steve!

Question: Could the Italians be persuaded by the Entente to switch sides if they will initially join the CPs but the CPs will subsequently be losing the war? Romania managed to do it in 1944 in WWII in real life, after all.
 

stevep

Well-known member
Excellent analysis, Steve!

Question: Could the Italians be persuaded by the Entente to switch sides if they will initially join the CPs but the CPs will subsequently be losing the war? Romania managed to do it in 1944 in WWII in real life, after all.

I suspect it would depend on the circumstances. For instance how much damage has a CP Italy done to the EPs before they switch sides and what terms are they offering? If the EPs are clearly winning even with Italy on the CPs side then the EP have definitely got the upper hand in the negotiations. Also is this like Italy in WWII when it lost the will to support Mussolini and the fascists but ended up occupied and fought over by both sides. Although in a WWI example its probably less likely that the CPs would be able to occupy much of Italy unless they had already sent forces to prop it up. In which case its probably only the north along the Po valley. Possibly not that.

I wouldn't say Romania was a good example as if I understand it correctly it was more a pro-Soviet puppet regime was set up and conscripted men to booster the forces attacking the remaining Axis. Ditto with assorted other pro-Soviet 'governments' in Poland, Bulgaria etc. Italy was possibly a better example as there did seem to be a government that decided to surrender to the allies and then fight alongside them - albeit it didn't stop the occupation of virtually all the country coming under German control until they were driven out with much fighting and destruction.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
I suspect it would depend on the circumstances. For instance how much damage has a CP Italy done to the EPs before they switch sides and what terms are they offering? If the EPs are clearly winning even with Italy on the CPs side then the EP have definitely got the upper hand in the negotiations. Also is this like Italy in WWII when it lost the will to support Mussolini and the fascists but ended up occupied and fought over by both sides. Although in a WWI example its probably less likely that the CPs would be able to occupy much of Italy unless they had already sent forces to prop it up. In which case its probably only the north along the Po valley. Possibly not that.

I wouldn't say Romania was a good example as if I understand it correctly it was more a pro-Soviet puppet regime was set up and conscripted men to booster the forces attacking the remaining Axis. Ditto with assorted other pro-Soviet 'governments' in Poland, Bulgaria etc. Italy was possibly a better example as there did seem to be a government that decided to surrender to the allies and then fight alongside them - albeit it didn't stop the occupation of virtually all the country coming under German control until they were driven out with much fighting and destruction.

AFAIK, King Michael's Coup in Romania did not immediately result in the installation of a pro-Soviet puppet regime in Romania. That only came later. In or around 1947, I think. That's when King Michael got exiled from Romania.
 

stevep

Well-known member
AFAIK, King Michael's Coup in Romania did not immediately result in the installation of a pro-Soviet puppet regime in Romania. That only came later. In or around 1947, I think. That's when King Michael got exiled from Romania.

OK checking your correct. Well technically the communists only took clear control in 1947 although they pretty much had the whip hand from 1944. However Romania did try to escape the German yoke - unfortunately ending up with a Soviet one instead :( - so it does fit your suggestion of a nation seeking to switch sides.

In terms of the initial question it might need something like that in Romania, with basically an internal coup over whatever group was in power and favoured supporting the CPs - probably with the monarchy coming out clearing in support of the coup - for such a change of alliance. A lot would depend on timing and how well the Italians and the EPs could keep plans and negotiations secret from both the pro-CP forces and also Vienna and Berlin as the reaction if their found out could be very nasty.
 

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