Can anyone else verify how many are tallied to have voted in the Iowa Caucus? I'm hearing via Ben Shapiro the number was significantly lower this time than it was when they voted for Obama in 2012. If so, that means overall enthusiasm for the Dems has really taken a hit.
Those are the results.
On the First Alignment, 176,436 people "voted".
Leading up to Monday's caucuses, the Iowa Democratic Party officials said they were expecting attendance to surpass the turnout record set a dozen years ago.
www.desmoinesregister.com
While it isn't good for the Democrats, caucuses aren't really the most representative way to measure actual turnout. It takes a great deal more enthusiasm to show up at a caucus than to show up at a primary, and that is even more true compared to the General Election.
I mean in the 2018 Congressional Democrat Primary, a total of 170,398 votes were cast.
By comparison, the 2016 primary had 94,221 votes cast.
As for the general election comparison, in 2016 there were 673,969 Democrat votes in congressional races (and 653,669 cast for Hillary). In 2018 there were 664,676 Democrat votes in congressional races. Republicans, by comparison, went from 813,153 congressional votes in 2016 to 612,338 in 2018.
The Democrats flipped two House seats (the first and third).
| 2016 Dem | 2018 Dem | 2016 GOP | 2018 GOP |
1st | 177,403 | 170,342 | 206,903 | 153,442 |
3rd | 155,002 | 175,642 | 208,598 | 167,933 |
Those seats were flipped not because Democrats convinced more people to go to the polls or vote for them, but because they convinced more Hillary voters to come to the polls in an off year.
2018 Republican turnout was essentially what you would expect in an off year election.
More broadly speaking, this is why I expect the Republicans to pick up a great many House seats (although I would be surprised if they take back the House). Democrats won in 2018 by getting Democrats to turn out in numbers comparable to Presidential election years while Republicans got turnout that was broadly as expected for an off year election.