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Gaston d'Orleans was, as the name implies, French. A foreigner. Isabel was a woman. I probably sound like Sufficient Velocity or AH or SB but the reality of the day was that.

Brazil would be probably in a better position but I am unsure if a male heir would have made it better frankly. Because the coup was backed by ex slavers. I am saying this as someone who is in favor of a Bragança restoration. I am mildly monarchist-ish, but just for Brazil.