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Agreed, though I think this holds things constant, and is thus more applicable for a near-term scenario. But if something like this happens in the mid (or late) 21st century, the variables can change. (e.g.: China’s nuclear arsenal bridging the gap with Russia’s, by then.)

Sure, but how else will China address the “Russian warlords nuking us” problem without responding in kind? Siberia’s a resource machine, all right, but when the natives have lots of nukes, well…

Fair point, though somehow, I can imagine the Chinese thinking the same thing and lobbing some nukes their direction, either in retaliation or as a preemptive strike.

Why? Logically, I know it makes little sense to nuke territory you probably want to capture—and avoid retaliation, more importantly—but it only takes one computer error or unhinged warlord to set the chain reaction off. We’ve already had close calls of that sort during the Cold War, so I don’t...

Don't forget the nukes! (Or China becoming both terrified and uppity at the same time, and marching its troops in to "restore order" to its northern neighbor.)