If Russia will ever experience regime change, what will happen to its Eurasian Economic Union?

WolfBear

Well-known member
If Russia will ever experience regime change, what will happen to its Eurasian Economic Union? Could we, for instance, see a future Russian nationalist government deciding to end Russia's participation in the Eurasian Economic Union due to it containing too many Muslims and non-Slavs? Especially if this future Russian nationalist government will also ironically be Western-aligned (think Alexei Navalny) and thus seek membership in Western organizations such as the EU and NATO? Also, in such a scenario, could Central Asia, Turkey, and perhaps even eventually Iran if it will ever experience regime change form a new Turko-Persian Economic Union of their own? Or just a Turkic Economic Union if Iran doesn't want to join?

Thoughts on this?
 

Terthna

Professional Lurker
Almost everyone in Russian politics absolutely despises the west; and even those who don't do not trust us in the slightest. If there is a regime change, I'd expect their actions, whatever they end up being economically-speaking, to be more antagonistic towards the west, not less.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Almost everyone in Russian politics absolutely despises the west; and even those who don't do not trust us in the slightest. If there is a regime change, I'd expect their actions, whatever they end up being economically-speaking, to be more antagonistic towards the west, not less.

Russia more or less runs on three things.

Oil, Vodka, and spite, and the oil is new.
 

ATP

Well-known member
If Russia will ever experience regime change, what will happen to its Eurasian Economic Union? Could we, for instance, see a future Russian nationalist government deciding to end Russia's participation in the Eurasian Economic Union due to it containing too many Muslims and non-Slavs? Especially if this future Russian nationalist government will also ironically be Western-aligned (think Alexei Navalny) and thus seek membership in Western organizations such as the EU and NATO? Also, in such a scenario, could Central Asia, Turkey, and perhaps even eventually Iran if it will ever experience regime change form a new Turko-Persian Economic Union of their own? Or just a Turkic Economic Union if Iran doesn't want to join?

Thoughts on this?

Moscov is ruled by KGB mafias,if Putin dies,andther KGB colonel would rule.Nothing would change - except fact,that USA would have no problems with selling Europe to Moscov again.

If you want remove KGB mafias,you need cyvil war big enough to destroy entire country,and leave few smaller states.
Which could be relatively normal,just like germans states was normal before prussians conqered them.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
My thought on Russia is that Putin has become Tito. Once he dies, get ready for the ugly civil wars.

Don't forget the nukes!

(Or China becoming both terrified and uppity at the same time, and marching its troops in to "restore order" to its northern neighbor.)
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Both are possible, though the latter is more likely than the former.

Why? Logically, I know it makes little sense to nuke territory you probably want to capture—and avoid retaliation, more importantly—but it only takes one computer error or unhinged warlord to set the chain reaction off.

We’ve already had close calls of that sort during the Cold War, so I don’t imagine a violent breakup of Russia where a bunch of nuclear-armed factions are actually fighting would be any less risky.
 

The Whispering Monk

Well-known member
Osaul
Why? Logically, I know it makes little sense to nuke territory you probably want to capture—and avoid retaliation, more importantly—but it only takes one computer error or unhinged warlord to set the chain reaction off.

We’ve already had close calls of that sort during the Cold War, so I don’t imagine a violent breakup of Russia where a bunch of nuclear-armed factions are actually fighting would be any less risky.
The biggest issue is that each Nuke will have to be retargeted at locations w/in Russia. If I was Russia/USSR, I'd have made sure that was extremely difficult to impossible. You don't want foreign hackers using your own weapons to destroy you.

Though, I could easily see a Chinese incursion resulting in a nuke strike by a desperate Russian warlord with nothing to lose.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
The biggest issue is that each Nuke will have to be retargeted at locations w/in Russia. If I was Russia/USSR, I'd have made sure that was extremely difficult to impossible. You don't want foreign hackers using your own weapons to destroy you.

Though, I could easily see a Chinese incursion resulting in a nuke strike by a desperate Russian warlord with nothing to lose.

Fair point, though somehow, I can imagine the Chinese thinking the same thing and lobbing some nukes their direction, either in retaliation or as a preemptive strike.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
Fair point, though somehow, I can imagine the Chinese thinking the same thing and lobbing some nukes their direction, either in retaliation or as a preemptive strike.
Thing is if china seizes the far east and Siberia it more or less solves their resource issues and since Russia just declared that conquest is ok again...
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
Thing is if china seizes the far east and Siberia it more or less solves their resource issues and since Russia just declared that conquest is ok again...

Sure, but how else will China address the “Russian warlords nuking us” problem without responding in kind? Siberia’s a resource machine, all right, but when the natives have lots of nukes, well…
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
Thing is if china seizes the far east and Siberia it more or less solves their resource issues and since Russia just declared that conquest is ok again...

If China invades the Russian far East, they will absolutely get nuked. Russia's arsenal is an order of magnitude larger than theirs, and you can bet that Russia would be willing to at the least directly hit the Chinese armies trying to invade, betting in turn the Chinese won't escalate to a general exchange of nuclear weapons.
 

Zyobot

Just a time-traveling robot stranded on Earth.
If China invades the Russian far East, they will absolutely get nuked. Russia's arsenal is an order of magnitude larger than theirs, and you can bet that Russia would be willing to at the least directly hit the Chinese armies trying to invade, betting in turn the Chinese won't escalate to a general exchange of nuclear weapons.

Agreed, though I think this holds things constant, and is thus more applicable for a near-term scenario. But if something like this happens in the mid (or late) 21st century, the variables can change. (e.g.: China’s nuclear arsenal bridging the gap with Russia’s, by then.)
 

DarthOne

☦️
Almost everyone in Russian politics absolutely despises the west; and even those who don't do not trust us in the slightest. If there is a regime change, I'd expect their actions, whatever they end up being economically-speaking, to be more antagonistic towards the west, not less.
As someone whose not a expert in recent Russian politics, how much of this is the fault of the West/NATO/the USA?
 

ATP

Well-known member
My thought on Russia is that Putin has become Tito. Once he dies, get ready for the ugly civil wars.
There is such possibiity,But - Moscov is ruled by coalition of various KGB mafias.They knew each other,and even if used to kill each other from time to time/some 30-40 generals till 2022/,they still would prefer to talk.

I think,that we would have new,better Putin who would widraw from part of Ukraine.And West woud love him as next enlightened Moscov leader - becouse main weakness of West is perceiving Moscov as special state which could do whatever they want,and after old genociding leader died,new one is welcomed as some king of Saint.Till he start genociding too much to be ignored.

I hope,that you are right,not me.
 

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