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Do you mean Qing conquer it instead of Koxinga, or in addition to Koxinga, *after* he does it, to chase after him/his successors?

It's an idea, but most of these ones, Chinese, Dutch, maybe or maybe not British, who would seize a Spanish Philippines, would also seize a Spanish Formosa/Taiwan. Indeed some of them, like Zheng/Koxinga, would be coming from right there as they mounted their invasion.

If Spain lost the Philippines in its early colonial centuries (the 1500s, 1600s, or 1700s) could and would it have found a substitute outpost in the East Indies? If so, where? There were multiple occasions in which Spain might have been deprived of the Philippines. From the 1560s, the Spanish...