raharris1973
Well-known member
If Spain lost the Philippines in its early colonial centuries (the 1500s, 1600s, or 1700s) could and would it have found a substitute outpost in the East Indies? If so, where?
There were multiple occasions in which Spain might have been deprived of the Philippines. From the 1560s, the Spanish started spreading their authority over much of the archipelago, but it took a long time to deepen their authority and grow routes. Here are some occasions where it might have been lost:
a) 1575 - to the Chinese pirate fleet under Limahong - decent possibility, he led a large fleet, outnumbering the Spanish, using a mixture of eastern and western guns and ships that attacked Manila and had a large pirate forces of Chinese and Japanese. In the longer run Limahong's pirate kingdom of the Philippines, called something else, would face risks of being conquered by the emerging Shogunate of Hideyoshi, or more likely, eventually, the conquering Qing a century later.
b) 1646 - Dutch win battle of La Naval de Manila - small possibility. The Dutch had reasonable odds of beating the local Spanish fleet in the Philippines and the larger East Indies and China Seas region. Reinforcing the islands with enough troops to decimate and defeat the Spanish garrisons and their local garrisons and clients would have more difficult, but conceivably possible with a multi-year, possibly decade or dozen year effort that the Dutch relentlessly reinforce over time. If successful, it would make the Philippines one of the centerpieces of the Dutch East Indies as much as Batavia (Djakarta) on Java, and link Dutch Taiwan to Dutch Java, Malacca and Spice Islands/Maluku. This configuration might endure, or much of it, at least the Taiwan and northern and central Philippines part might fall to the Chinese pirate/Admiral Zheng, aka Koxinga who in OTL conquered Taiwan from the Dutch between 1661-1663, and whose heirs subsequently lost the all their lands, surrendering them to the Qing Dynasty in 1683.
c) 1664-1665 - Koxinga is rumored to have been intending upon conquering the Philippines shortly after consolidating on Taiwan and building his state there, and shortly before dying in 1664, and indeed launched effective raids and demanded tribute from the Spanish. He might have succeeded in such a conquest of the Spanish Philippines.
d) 1762 - Britain captured Manila and defeated the Spanish Pacific Fleet, and was in a position to conquer the Philippines, potentially making it a colony.
If any of these conquerors succeeded in taking the Philippines from Spain, reducing Spanish and Spanish-aligned resistance, and fending off any Spanish recapture or reinvasion attempts over the next couple decades, would Spain have been finished in the Southeast Asia region? Or would it likely have built up an alternate base in the Southeast Asia/Southwest Pacific/East Indies region?
Possible candidate areas might include the Malukus/Spice Islands - although they would have to pry them away from the Dutch, who valued them very much. Or elsewhere in Eastern Indonesia. Or New Guinea. Or the Bismarck Archipelago including Rabaul (not called Bismarck at the time), or the Solomon islands? Or perhaps Spain would just be stuck with the minor Micronesian/Mariana islands like Guam that it historically had. The further east any of these islands are, however, the less valuable they would be for the silver for silk and Chinese luxuries trade. A wildcard substitute further north could be Okinawa in the Ryukyu islands. That was a "secret protectorate" of the Satsuma domain's Shimazu clan, so not openly acknowledged by the Tokugawa, so the Japanese Shoguns might not fight for it. Okinawa/Ryukyu/Liuchiu is also formally a Chinese protectorate, so a Chinese reaction is risked there, but perhaps China would not react if Spain made its move during the Ming/Qing transition.
A Chinese state, or indeed any state, depriving Spain of the Philippines, or a comparable outpost actually puts China in an awkward position, by interrupting Spanish safe harbor for its Manila galleon silver fleets. Unless Spain reconciles with the new landlord of Manila, who might also be ruler of the Chinese mainland, the flow of Spanish New World silver is stopped for the duration, which requires belt-tightening in China as long as this is the case. Of course, Spanish importers of Chinese silks and luxury goods would also miss out to an extent on suspension of trade, they can't eat silver (though they can eat from silver bowls and cups instead of fine porcelain ones) and can't wear silver garments. So, there might be enough incentive to restart Spanish galleon trade across the Pacific, even if port ownership changes hands or if the Pacific terminus changes to Macau instead of Manila, or possibly moves to a further out Spanish controlled island.
There were multiple occasions in which Spain might have been deprived of the Philippines. From the 1560s, the Spanish started spreading their authority over much of the archipelago, but it took a long time to deepen their authority and grow routes. Here are some occasions where it might have been lost:
a) 1575 - to the Chinese pirate fleet under Limahong - decent possibility, he led a large fleet, outnumbering the Spanish, using a mixture of eastern and western guns and ships that attacked Manila and had a large pirate forces of Chinese and Japanese. In the longer run Limahong's pirate kingdom of the Philippines, called something else, would face risks of being conquered by the emerging Shogunate of Hideyoshi, or more likely, eventually, the conquering Qing a century later.
b) 1646 - Dutch win battle of La Naval de Manila - small possibility. The Dutch had reasonable odds of beating the local Spanish fleet in the Philippines and the larger East Indies and China Seas region. Reinforcing the islands with enough troops to decimate and defeat the Spanish garrisons and their local garrisons and clients would have more difficult, but conceivably possible with a multi-year, possibly decade or dozen year effort that the Dutch relentlessly reinforce over time. If successful, it would make the Philippines one of the centerpieces of the Dutch East Indies as much as Batavia (Djakarta) on Java, and link Dutch Taiwan to Dutch Java, Malacca and Spice Islands/Maluku. This configuration might endure, or much of it, at least the Taiwan and northern and central Philippines part might fall to the Chinese pirate/Admiral Zheng, aka Koxinga who in OTL conquered Taiwan from the Dutch between 1661-1663, and whose heirs subsequently lost the all their lands, surrendering them to the Qing Dynasty in 1683.
c) 1664-1665 - Koxinga is rumored to have been intending upon conquering the Philippines shortly after consolidating on Taiwan and building his state there, and shortly before dying in 1664, and indeed launched effective raids and demanded tribute from the Spanish. He might have succeeded in such a conquest of the Spanish Philippines.
d) 1762 - Britain captured Manila and defeated the Spanish Pacific Fleet, and was in a position to conquer the Philippines, potentially making it a colony.
If any of these conquerors succeeded in taking the Philippines from Spain, reducing Spanish and Spanish-aligned resistance, and fending off any Spanish recapture or reinvasion attempts over the next couple decades, would Spain have been finished in the Southeast Asia region? Or would it likely have built up an alternate base in the Southeast Asia/Southwest Pacific/East Indies region?
Possible candidate areas might include the Malukus/Spice Islands - although they would have to pry them away from the Dutch, who valued them very much. Or elsewhere in Eastern Indonesia. Or New Guinea. Or the Bismarck Archipelago including Rabaul (not called Bismarck at the time), or the Solomon islands? Or perhaps Spain would just be stuck with the minor Micronesian/Mariana islands like Guam that it historically had. The further east any of these islands are, however, the less valuable they would be for the silver for silk and Chinese luxuries trade. A wildcard substitute further north could be Okinawa in the Ryukyu islands. That was a "secret protectorate" of the Satsuma domain's Shimazu clan, so not openly acknowledged by the Tokugawa, so the Japanese Shoguns might not fight for it. Okinawa/Ryukyu/Liuchiu is also formally a Chinese protectorate, so a Chinese reaction is risked there, but perhaps China would not react if Spain made its move during the Ming/Qing transition.
A Chinese state, or indeed any state, depriving Spain of the Philippines, or a comparable outpost actually puts China in an awkward position, by interrupting Spanish safe harbor for its Manila galleon silver fleets. Unless Spain reconciles with the new landlord of Manila, who might also be ruler of the Chinese mainland, the flow of Spanish New World silver is stopped for the duration, which requires belt-tightening in China as long as this is the case. Of course, Spanish importers of Chinese silks and luxury goods would also miss out to an extent on suspension of trade, they can't eat silver (though they can eat from silver bowls and cups instead of fine porcelain ones) and can't wear silver garments. So, there might be enough incentive to restart Spanish galleon trade across the Pacific, even if port ownership changes hands or if the Pacific terminus changes to Macau instead of Manila, or possibly moves to a further out Spanish controlled island.
