United States 2024: United States Senate Dicussion Thread

[Sergeant Foley]

What about Ohio and North Carolina? They're a lot closer than Colorado. Open seats and all that.

Personally, I'm very interested to see the results in Alaska. Everyone, including me, expects the new RCV/IRV method to help her, but we haven't seen it till we've seen it.

North Carolina will be intriguing to watch.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

I guess I can put out my own list. I am not bothering to keep a particularly close eye on New Hampshire or North Carolina even though they are quite close; I'm content to just assume they go Democratic and Republican respectively and be surprised if that turns out not to be the case. Colorado seems more firmly Democratic though I suppose it's not really out of reach for an upset.

1. Pennsylvania: If Fetterman loses it will be more to his own failing body than to Oz. I expect the debate to indicate how that battle is going.
2. Georgia: This one is also very interesting. And another debate to watch. In a different race, Abrams doesn't seem to be living up to the hype in her rematch.
3. Wisconsin: my understanding is that Ron Johnson is the only statewide-elected Republican still standing. Can he beat the trendline?
4. Ohio: Ryan is presenting himself as a conservative Democrat, to some apparent success so far. But is it enough to win in a red state?
5. Nevada: I hear both state parties are in disarray. Who's in worse shape?
6. Arizona: Things look fairly good for Kelly so far.
7. Alaska: as mentioned.

On Georgia: Democrats realizing they're never winning back the Governor's Mansion, but sounds like Kemp will carry Walker across the finish line.

Republicans need only one pickup to win back control of the US Senate.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

What about Ohio and North Carolina? They're a lot closer than Colorado. Open seats and all that.

Personally, I'm very interested to see the results in Alaska. Everyone, including me, expects the new RCV/IRV method to help her, but we haven't seen it till we've seen it.

Washington could have a similar surprise of the 2014 Virginia US Senate race where Warner got a huge scare from Gillespie.

Smiley is aggressively campaigning hard in her bid to pull off the upset against Murray. I wouldn't be surprised if we see Youngkin, Trump, etc coming to Washington to campaign for Smiley.

 

[Zachowon]

I guess I can put out my own list. I am not bothering to keep a particularly close eye on New Hampshire or North Carolina even though they are quite close; I'm content to just assume they go Democratic and Republican respectively and be surprised if that turns out not to be the case. Colorado seems more firmly Democratic though I suppose it's not really out of reach for an upset.

1. Pennsylvania: If Fetterman loses it will be more to his own failing body than to Oz. I expect the debate to indicate how that battle is going.
2. Georgia: This one is also very interesting. And another debate to watch. In a different race, Abrams doesn't seem to be living up to the hype in her rematch.
3. Wisconsin: my understanding is that Ron Johnson is the only statewide-elected Republican still standing. Can he beat the trendline?
4. Ohio: Ryan is presenting himself as a conservative Democrat, to some apparent success so far. But is it enough to win in a red state?
5. Nevada: I hear both state parties are in disarray. Who's in worse shape?
6. Arizona: Things look fairly good for Kelly so far.
7. Alaska: as mentioned.

Abrams is hoping on the cities winning it, and Abortion and Voter rights being her way to win.
As in the current system needs tk be reworked and is racist

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Abrams is hoping on the cities winning it, and Abortion and Voter rights being her way to win.
As in the current system needs tk be reworked and is racist

Georgia will NEVER vote for an African American Governor in our lifetime

 

[Zachowon]

Georgia will NEVER vote for an African American Governor in our lifetime

Almost did last time

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Almost did last time

The deep-seated hatred of Abrams in parts of Georgia (especially the predominantly white northern part of the state) is too much to overcome

 

[Zachowon]

The deep-seated hatred of Abrams in parts of Georgia (especially the predominantly white northern part of the state) is too much to overcome

The north yes, but domt forget Atlanta, Columbus, Augusta, Savanah

 

[Sergeant Foley]

The north yes, but domt forget Atlanta, Columbus, Augusta, Savanah

Crazy to think the late US Senator Zell Miller (D-GA) is from the predominantly white northern part of the state (Young Harris).

Speaking of Miller, was he buried there?

 

[Zachowon]

Crazy to think the late US Senator Zell Miller (D-GA) is from the predominantly white northern part of the state (Young Harris).

Speaking of Miller, was he buried there?

He probably is.
And I mean, the dude was the last Dem governor of GA.
Anyone who takes college has to learn about how many Dems ruled the state until the 2000s

 

[Sergeant Foley]

He probably is.
And I mean, the dude was the last Dem governor of GA.
Anyone who takes college has to learn about how many Dems ruled the state until the 2000s

Roy Barnes was the last Democrat to win the Georgia Governor's Mansion in 1998.

 

[Captain X]

 

[Cherico]

I wont count my chickens before their hatched, but if the dems lose both the house and the senate well...

Biden becomes a lame duck president at best, and the hunter labtop is more then enough to earn an impeachment.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

I wont count my chickens before their hatched, but if the dems lose both the house and the senate well...

Biden becomes a lame duck president at best, and the hunter labtop is more then enough to earn an impeachment.

Gingrich predicts Republicans pick up 20-70 seats in the US House of Representatives and 7 seats in the US Senate.

 

[strunkenwhite]

Gingrich predicts Republicans pick up 20-70 seats in the US House of Representatives and 7 seats in the US Senate.

Absolute insanity. That's, what, lose nothing, pick up GA, AZ, NV, NH, CO, OR, WA? Or maybe he's expecting to flip California instead? There's an open seat in Vermont, I guess.

As for the House, that would be the biggest loss/gain since 1948, or 1938 for a midterm. And although being so narrowly in the minority makes it easier to win back the majority, it actually makes huge swings unlikelier since there's less room for growth. After the blue wave of 2006/8 receded, it left a lot of Democrats high and dry in Republican-leaning districts to be flipped right back in 2010.

 

[gral]

Absolute insanity. That's, what, lose nothing, pick up GA, AZ, NV, NH, CO, OR, WA? Or maybe he's expecting to flip California instead? There's an open seat in Vermont, I guess.

As for the House, that would be the biggest loss/gain since 1948, or 1938 for a midterm. And although being so narrowly in the minority makes it easier to win back the majority, it actually makes huge swings unlikelier since there's less room for growth. After the blue wave of 2006/8 receded, it left a lot of Democrats high and dry in Republican-leaning districts to be flipped right back in 2010.

Yeah. I can see the Republicans regaining the majority in the House and Senate. I can't see them doing that well, though.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Absolute insanity. That's, what, lose nothing, pick up GA, AZ, NV, NH, CO, OR, WA? Or maybe he's expecting to flip California instead? There's an open seat in Vermont, I guess.

As for the House, that would be the biggest loss/gain since 1948, or 1938 for a midterm. And although being so narrowly in the minority makes it easier to win back the majority, it actually makes huge swings unlikelier since there's less room for growth. After the blue wave of 2006/8 receded, it left a lot of Democrats high and dry in Republican-leaning districts to be flipped right back in 2010.

Republicans need hold onto Pennsylvania (OPEN), Ohio (OPEN), North Carolina (OPEN) including Wisconsin.

I think they'll pick up Nevada, Georgia, Arizona. Big question is whether they get New Hampshire considering Sununu will have coattails.

 

[Bacle]

Colorado seems more firmly Democratic though I suppose it's not really out of reach for an upset.

Colorado won't be going red anytime soon on the national level.

A few seats in the Red areas, like Boeberts, are relatively 'safe' from Dems flipping them; however the Governorship and Senate seats are likely only to shift more blue over time.

The Colorado state-level GOP have made some very, very dumb moves in the past decade or so, including trying to run a member of the Stapleton family (long time CO political family with direct ties to the KKK of old and not many warm feelings among the populace) against Gov. Polis last time, while they were the delegation that walked out of the 2016 RNC out of protest to Trump getting the nomination.

Anyone who thinks Colorado is still a 'battleground/swing' state is about 10 years behind the times, just like the state-level GOP seems to be.

 

[Sergeant Foley]

Colorado won't be going red anytime soon on the national level.

A few seats in the Red areas, like Boeberts, are relatively 'safe' from Dems flipping them; however the Governorship and Senate seats are likely only to shift more blue over time.

The Colorado state-level GOP have made some very, very dumb moves in the past decade or so, including trying to run a member of the Stapleton family (long time CO political family with direct ties to the KKK of old and not many warm feelings among the populace) against Gov. Polis last time, while they were the delegation that walked out of the 2016 RNC out of protest to Trump getting the nomination.

Anyone who thinks Colorado is still a 'battleground/swing' state is about 10 years behind the times, just like the state-level GOP seems to be.

Dana Perino of Fox News still has this naive analysis of Colorado being a Purple State

 

[49ersfootball]

I guess I can put out my own list. I am not bothering to keep a particularly close eye on New Hampshire or North Carolina even though they are quite close; I'm content to just assume they go Democratic and Republican respectively and be surprised if that turns out not to be the case. Colorado seems more firmly Democratic though I suppose it's not really out of reach for an upset.

1. Pennsylvania: If Fetterman loses it will be more to his own failing body than to Oz. I expect the debate to indicate how that battle is going.
2. Georgia: This one is also very interesting. And another debate to watch. In a different race, Abrams doesn't seem to be living up to the hype in her rematch.
3. Wisconsin: my understanding is that Ron Johnson is the only statewide-elected Republican still standing. Can he beat the trendline?
4. Ohio: Ryan is presenting himself as a conservative Democrat, to some apparent success so far. But is it enough to win in a red state?
5. Nevada: I hear both state parties are in disarray. Who's in worse shape?
6. Arizona: Things look fairly good for Kelly so far.
7. Alaska: as mentioned.

Speaking of the Peach State: Assuming you've heard about the explosive allegations of Walker paying one of his girlfriends $$$$$$ of getting an abortion ?