raharris1973
Well-known member
This alternate history challenge is to manipulate the operations of World War Two, the Manhattan Project, and their relative pace, so that the the first target the Americans strike with atomic bomb when ready, is the first one that Leslie Groves' committee settled on as feasible, suitable, and useful - the Imperial Japanese Navy Anchorage at Truk (aka Chu'uk) lagoon in the Japanese controlled Caroline Islands.
For this target to be chosen, things need to be altered in such a way that when the atomic bomb and a suitable delivery aircraft are ready: a) Sufficient undamaged IJN assets remain at Truk for it to be a worthy military target, b) Truk is within striking range of US aircraft, c) a potentially more valuable military, command, or political target within the Japanese Home Islands or innermost core empire is out of reach of US aircraft, at least within the risk tolerances of this 'no fail'* mission, d) There is no German target that is potential more valuable and fits within the risk tolerances of this mission**
However, I do not think this challenge is easy. There were major, structural reasons, physical, economic, political, why the major events of WWII happened when they did. And these were not isolated from each other- changing one likely effects others.
So can my challenge be plausibly met, working from a world identical to ours up to let's say, the signing of the Anti-Comintern Pact of 1936?
For this target to be chosen, things need to be altered in such a way that when the atomic bomb and a suitable delivery aircraft are ready: a) Sufficient undamaged IJN assets remain at Truk for it to be a worthy military target, b) Truk is within striking range of US aircraft, c) a potentially more valuable military, command, or political target within the Japanese Home Islands or innermost core empire is out of reach of US aircraft, at least within the risk tolerances of this 'no fail'* mission, d) There is no German target that is potential more valuable and fits within the risk tolerances of this mission**
*'No fail' in this case means = Any risk of the bomb being wasted by failing to hit the target, or, any chance of an unexploded bomb being recovered by an enemy salvage team. Closer-range allows greater fuel use for greater precision, and a deep sea target reduces the chances of salvage.
**There is a decent argument that German air defenses throughout the war are of such superior robustness to Japanese, that the only "safe" atomic missions targets in German controlled space are tactical ones or cities/ports/facilities on the outer edge, not any 'strategic' targets deeper in Reich territory. IE, by the time an atomic mission on the Ruhr or Berlin is "safe" Allied ground forces must be close enough that Allied conventional seizure of the target is a foregone conclusion within mere weeks.
However, I do not think this challenge is easy. There were major, structural reasons, physical, economic, political, why the major events of WWII happened when they did. And these were not isolated from each other- changing one likely effects others.
So can my challenge be plausibly met, working from a world identical to ours up to let's say, the signing of the Anti-Comintern Pact of 1936?