AHC: Have Japan Surrender before Germany does in WWII

[raharris1973]

With a Point of Divergence after Pearl Harbor, your challenge is to ensure that the final surrender of an Axis power comes not from Japan, as it historically was in September 2nd 1945, but from Germany. This can be done by either extending the lifespan of Nazi Germany powers,or by ensuring the Japanese will be the first one to collapse. Ideally Japan would surrender with as few preconditions as OTL (IE, related to the Emperor), but you can bend this requirement if you feel you must and can devise a convincing way to get the Allies to accept a more conditions attached to Japan's surrender than OTL, or fewer.

This is not including other powers such as Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland and Thailand, those can surrender at any time.

A Japan-first policy amongst the allies may be the challenge here because Britain and the Soviets will both push far more to counter Germany, which is an imminent threat to their homelands, than the Japanese. The second challenge is the fanaticism of the Japanese defenders in the first place, considering the military even attempted a coup in 1945 (that is after it was apparent the war was lost, with two nuclear detonations, a Soviet invasion, and the loss of the IJN) despite going against the Emperor's wishes.

 

[ATP]

With a Point of Divergence after Pearl Harbor, your challenge is to ensure that the final surrender of an Axis power comes not from Japan, as it historically was in September 2nd 1945, but from Germany. This can be done by either extending the lifespan of Nazi Germany powers,or by ensuring the Japanese will be the first one to collapse. Ideally Japan would surrender with as few preconditions as OTL (IE, related to the Emperor), but you can bend this requirement if you feel you must and can devise a convincing way to get the Allies to accept a more conditions attached to Japan's surrender than OTL, or fewer.

This is not including other powers such as Italy, Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, Finland and Thailand, those can surrender at any time.

A Japan-first policy amongst the allies may be the challenge here because Britain and the Soviets will both push far more to counter Germany, which is an imminent threat to their homelands, than the Japanese. The second challenge is the fanaticism of the Japanese defenders in the first place, considering the military even attempted a coup in 1945 (that is after it was apparent the war was lost, with two nuclear detonations, a Soviet invasion, and the loss of the IJN) despite going against the Emperor's wishes.

1.Kill Hitler in 1942/there was almost succesfull attempt then/
Germans do not go for Kursk battle,only prepare defense.Soviets get on Dniepr by 1.5.45,when Allies would be still boggled in France/more german tanks there/.

So,first Atomic bomb is dropped on Berlin,when soviets fight for Kiev,and Allies for France.Germans surrender after few more,let say in 1946,but before it happaen,Japan,after watching what USA did to fellow white people,surrender in end of 1945.

Results - Poland,Hungary,Czech,Bulgary and probable Romania remained free,soviets do not have army to try anytching?in OTL they get recruits from retaken lands,now they get only part of tem,and kill in wave attacks for notching.

No North Korea,Czang win cyvil war.


2.Japan manage to win Midway battle,bomb USA,and as a result FDR must send most forces against them.They get crushed i early 1945,when german still fight soviets on Dniepr.

In this scenario,soviets probably still gets part of Europe,but not North Korea and Manchuria.

 

[IndyFront]

I can't remember the exact timeline of The Bomb, but depending on when it was ready it could theoretically be used against Japan earlier than in OTL. If not then I'm out of ideas.

 

[Buba]

Taiwan - or even better, Okinawa - instead of Phillippines?

 

[raharris1973]

Taiwan - or even better, Okinawa - instead of Phillippines?

So you are thinking an invasion of Taiwan, or Okinawa kicks off early, starting the time of the OTL invasion of the Philippines? Which was Oct 20, 1944 if you count it from the invasion of Leyte, or December 15th if you only count it from the start of the big island of Luzon. And with an earlier start to Taiwan or Okinawa, it would be an earlier finish.

But without the Taiwan or Okinawa invasions being the home base for an invasion of the Tokyo area before Mar-Apr-May 1945, why would the Japanese capitulate from one of the former invasions alone?

Because it might demonstrate to the Japanese their vulnerability? Or inspire the Soviets to break the neutrality pact and then declare war on Japan several months earlier?

 

[Buba]

I was thinking about Japan capitulating before May 9th.
Hence the idea to land on Taiwan or Okinawa instead of the Phillppines and unleash USN u-boats and aircraft upon the Sea of Japan and Tsushima Strait, cutting off the Home Islands from the rest of the empire.
But I thought that it was earlier than X.44 so there might not be enough time to starve Japan and/or show it that there is no hope.
I do not see the Great Genocider making a move on Japan as long as his conquest of Central Europe is not finished.

 

[ATP]

I was thinking about Japan capitulating before May 9th.
Hence the idea to land on Taiwan or Okinawa instead of the Phillppines and unleash USN u-boats and aircraft upon the Sea of Japan and Tsushima Strait, cutting off the Home Islands from the rest of the empire.
But I thought that it was earlier than X.44 so there might not be enough time to starve Japan and/or show it that there is no hope.
I do not see the Great Genocider making a move on Japan as long as his conquest of Central Europe is not finished.

True.
You could beat Japan first,only if USA focused on Pacyfic and send notching soviets - thanks to that Japan could be beaten in 1944,when germans would still fought on Ukraine and Belarus.

Not possible,becouse FDR loved soviets,and his vice,Wallace,was soviet agent.
Unless Republican president win in 1940.

 

[ThatZenoGuy]

Pretty simple, Lend Lease to Russia is canned because fears of a communist empire in Europe exists.
Without the Lend Lease, Russia gets destroyed pretty badly, with Japan falling to American occupation (after nukes and horrific losses).
Finally once Japan is out of the picture, the now heavily defended and pretty powerful German gets attacked from now-Allied Japan/China, and landing forces from Britain.

 

[ATP]

Pretty simple, Lend Lease to Russia is canned because fears of a communist empire in Europe exists.
Without the Lend Lease, Russia gets destroyed pretty badly, with Japan falling to American occupation (after nukes and horrific losses).
Finally once Japan is out of the picture, the now heavily defended and pretty powerful German gets attacked from now-Allied Japan/China, and landing forces from Britain.

Soviets would never be destroyed,becouse germans were too stupid to come as liberators there,so they would fight to death.

Add Hitler stupidity,and front would be between Don and Dniepr when muschroom become visible over Berlin and few other german cities.

 

[ThatZenoGuy]

Soviets would never be destroyed,becouse germans were too stupid to come as liberators there,so they would fight to death.

Add Hitler stupidity,and front would be between Don and Dniepr when muschroom become visible over Berlin and few other german cities.

Fight to the death with what? Some rusty Mosins and nonfunctioning industry?
Russia was practically kept on life support by the allies, without that help, they fold, either willingly or by force.
Call me cynical but the Nazis weren't the sort of people who'd leave a job half-finished.

 

[ATP]

Fight to the death with what? Some rusty Mosins and nonfunctioning industry?
Russia was practically kept on life support by the allies, without that help, they fold, either willingly or by force.
Call me cynical but the Nazis weren't the sort of people who'd leave a job half-finished.

They hold them with their own industry in 1942,becouse Lend-Lease do not come in great numbers yet.
So,they continue to do so on their own,unless germans get smart and made people there free.Not possible.

And,Hitler was genuine idiot - so his handling of german armies would help soviets,too.

 

[ThatZenoGuy]

They hold them with their own industry in 1942,becouse Lend-Lease do not come in great numbers yet.
So,they continue to do so on their own,unless germans get smart and made people there free.Not possible.

And,Hitler was genuine idiot - so his handling of german armies would help soviets,too.

I wouldn't call 2,453,097 tons of stuff in 1942 alone 'not great numbers'. Lmao.
I shouldn't have to stress how absolutely fucked Russia would be without the lend lease, given that Zhukov himself said as much.
And in regards to Soviet military capabilities, there's not many who are more knowledgeable than him.

 

[Husky_Khan]

As stated before, the easiest way for this scenario to be made to work would be to delay the surrender of Germany as opposed to hastening the surrender of Japan. I really can't think of any strong points of divergence that would get Japan to surrender in a manner similar to what it did OTL, at least to the extent where they'd somehow surrender before the Spring of 1945. The United States, despite taking Japan as the secondary threat, I feel was pretty efficient in how they conducted their Pacific Operations and I don't think the British or anyone else would've really helped accelerate that process.

Treating Germany as the secondary threat you'd still need most of the Commonwealth and other Allied forces tied up in Europe to protect the Middle East and North Africa and conduct the Battle of the Atlantic. And it's not like Russia wasn't going to divert significantly away from the Eastern Front... nor would the Allies curb Lend Lease significantly for nebulous reasons. Liberating French North Africa and causing a collapse of Italy could actually help alleviate the British Empire since they'd have Free French Colonial Forces to augment the British forces and allow them to spread themselves thin and aid in the Asian theater.

Significant US Naval Assets would still have to be deployed in the Atlantic as I stated before... so you'd only be able to free up a fraction of the fleet for Pacific Operations. You'd also have a lot more ground troops I suppose who wouldn't be slogging through Italy and invading Northwest Europe though.

So maybe you could have MacArthur driving through the Southwest Pacific, Nimitz through the Central Pacific and maybe by late 1943-44 you could have another major offensive... like driving through Burma/Malaya or French Indochina and culminate with landings in China and Formosa/Taiwan? With more Allied Naval forces and operations in the Pacific the Japanese Fleet would wither away quicker, allowing blockading and starving of the Home Islands, plus maybe the expanded offensive operations would prevent the Japanese Ichi-Go Offensive in the Summer of 1944 that really mauled Nationalist China. I don't know if it's enough to get Japan to surrender earlier because without Atomic Bombs, Japan would still need an invasion to bring them to surrender IMHO.

Postwar world would be more interesting though.

 

[ATP]

I wouldn't call 2,453,097 tons of stuff in 1942 alone 'not great numbers'. Lmao.
I shouldn't have to stress how absolutely fucked Russia would be without the lend lease, given that Zhukov himself said as much.
And in regards to Soviet military capabilities, there's not many who are more knowledgeable than him.

So,they could lost Leningrad and Stalingrad,maybe later Moscov - but i doubt it.
Soviets still produced 50.000 T.34 on their own,the same goes for planes and artillery.

Lend-Lease was important when it come to trucks,trains,and ammo.Soviets without that could only hold - but,with Hitler help ,they would hold.

P.S Zhukow was idiot capable only of throwinbg his soldiers at enemy till they all die.I would not care about his opinions.
And,in really dire situation,Sralin would replace him with somebody normal,like Koniew.

 

[ThatZenoGuy]

So,they could lost Leningrad and Stalingrad,maybe later Moscov - but i doubt it.
Soviets still produced 50.000 T.34 on their own,the same goes for planes and artillery.

Lend-Lease was important when it come to trucks,trains,and ammo.Soviets without that could only hold - but,with Hitler help ,they would hold.

P.S Zhukow was idiot capable only of throwinbg his soldiers at enemy till they all die.I would not care about his opinions.
And,in really dire situation,Sralin would replace him with somebody normal,like Koniew.

They wouldn't have produced 50k T-34's without the lend lease, and what use is so many tanks when you have no airforce to back them up? And so on.
Just saying but 'Zhukov was actually bad, he knew nothing' is pretty silly given that he's one of Russia's most famous military individuals in history.
It'd be like saying 'Oh Rommel was terrible', it's just plain silly.

 

[ATP]

They wouldn't have produced 50k T-34's without the lend lease, and what use is so many tanks when you have no airforce to back them up? And so on.
Just saying but 'Zhukov was actually bad, he knew nothing' is pretty silly given that he's one of Russia's most famous military individuals in history.
It'd be like saying 'Oh Rommel was terrible', it's just plain silly.

Then,they would built 25k T.34,and more truck and planes.Enough to hold germans - who during entire war made maybe 18k tanks.

Rommel with 2 dyvisions and another 2 italians ALMOST take Egypt,win outnumbered,and Allies need 2:1 advantage to defeat him.
Zukov - never attacked without 3:1 advantage,and still manage to lost few times.
Most famous - in 1941 led counterattack of still intact soviet armored corps on Ukraine with 7:1 advantage in tanks,not counting having T.34 and KV1 tanks - last one was impossible to destroy for Wermacht.

Dude lost.
Even in 1945 in Berlin he manage to destroy TWO SOVIET TANK ARMIES taking city.
And,when he meet minefield and do not want waste time? he simply send infrantry to remove mines with their bodies.
Even said so to americans after WW2 !

 

[ThatZenoGuy]

Then,they would built 25k T.34,and more truck and planes.Enough to hold germans - who during entire war made maybe 18k tanks.

You're discounting the fact that a weaker Russia means more stuff on the West, meaning less factories bombed and thus more German production.

 

[ATP]

You're discounting the fact that a weaker Russia means more stuff on the West, meaning less factories bombed and thus more German production.

Do not matter.German production was never stopped by bombers,in fact they produced more and more till 1944,when they have problems with resources.

The same problems with resources would stop them now.

And,you forget Adolf the Idiot.In OTL he wonted Maus superheavy tank built,which was stopped by pretext that americans bombed some factories in 1943.
Now,in intact factories,germans would build Maus,maybe even Rats,and more V1 and V2 missiles - which would change notching.

If you want help germans,kill Hitler in 1940.THEN they could win.

 

[ThatZenoGuy]

Do not matter.German production was never stopped by bombers,in fact they produced more and more till 1944,when they have problems with resources.

The same problems with resources would stop them now.

And,you forget Adolf the Idiot.In OTL he wonted Maus superheavy tank built,which was stopped by pretext that americans bombed some factories in 1943.
Now,in intact factories,germans would build Maus,maybe even Rats,and more V1 and V2 missiles - which would change notching.

If you want help germans,kill Hitler in 1940.THEN they could win.

Of course they produced more in '44, they ramped production up and got every single workshop and craftsman working on building cheaper and cheaper things.
Never the less, production was far below their demands because the big efficient factories were getting exploded all over the place.

 

[ATP]

Of course they produced more in '44, they ramped production up and got every single workshop and craftsman working on building cheaper and cheaper things.
Never the less, production was far below their demands because the big efficient factories were getting exploded all over the place.

Except those belonging to USA,which never get targeted.

But,as i mentioned earlier,as long as Hitler lived more factories do not mean more useful stuff,but stupid things like Mouse or V2.
Well,V2 was good for future satellites,but as weapon it was joke.Just like V1.
Even sensible ones,like Me 262,was partially ruined by Hitler,who want turn it into bomber....

But,it would be funny TL,with germans using Mouse and other shitty weapons.