Austrian Empire federalizes

Aldarion

Neoreactionary Monarchist
So after 1866. defeat against Prussia, Austrian Empire does not transform into Austria-Hungary but instead federalizes based on the US model. Will this be enough to save it from falling apart in the First World War, and if so, how does it affect the future history - especially potential Second World War?

EDIT: Year.
 
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Buba

A total creep
You mixed up the dates - 1866/67 versus 1878 :)
Yes, IMO federalisation - need not be on US model, it is enough if the individual Crown Lands get a measure of autonomy - would help save it as the country will be less dysfunctional. Three distinct military budgets passed by two parliaments? Hungary not sending X to Austria and vice versa, in wartime? O'rly?
As to Crown Lands - finally add Dalmacja to Croatia-Slavonia, keep Banat (and Transylvania, Slovakia etc.) separate from Hungary proper, break up Galicia into Halychyna and Little Poland, etc. etc.
However, the biggest millstone around the country's neck is Franz Josef. IMO even with the dysfunctional kakanian* mess (which he created) a more competent ruler would had sailed though the Great War (would it even happen?) unharmed.

*
The abbreviation k.k. gave rise to the noun Kakania (spelling out the letter K [kah] twice as well as reminiscent of caca in the Central European languages).

Kaka = poop
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
So after 1878. defeat against Prussia, Austrian Empire does not transform into Austria-Hungary but instead federalizes based on the US model. Will this be enough to save it from falling apart in the First World War, and if so, how does it affect the future history - especially potential Second World War?

I'm not even sure that there would actually be a WWI in this TL due to butterflies. Heck, I'm not even sure that Franz Ferdinand would ever become the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne in this TL since Franz Joseph could have a son in 1868 or his son Crown Prince Rudolf could have his own son in 1883 in this TL.

You mixed up the dates - 1866/67 versus 1878 :)
Yes, IMO federalisation - need not be on US model, it is enough if the individual Crown Lands get a measure of autonomy - would help save it as the country will be less dysfunctional. Three distinct military budgets passed by two parliaments? Hungary not sending X to Austria and vice versa, in wartime? O'rly?
As to Crown Lands - finally add Dalmacja to Croatia-Slavonia, keep Banat (and Transylvania, Slovakia etc.) separate from Hungary proper, break up Galicia into Halychyna and Little Poland, etc. etc.
However, the biggest millstone around the country's neck is Franz Josef. IMO even with the dysfunctional kakanian* mess (which he created) a more competent ruler would had sailed though the Great War (would it even happen?) unharmed.

*
The abbreviation k.k. gave rise to the noun Kakania (spelling out the letter K [kah] twice as well as reminiscent of caca in the Central European languages).

Kaka = poop

Would Transylvania also be separate from Hungary? And should Bohemia be split into a Czech section and a German section?
 

ATP

Well-known member
So after 1866. defeat against Prussia, Austrian Empire does not transform into Austria-Hungary but instead federalizes based on the US model. Will this be enough to save it from falling apart in the First World War, and if so, how does it affect the future history - especially potential Second World War?

EDIT: Year.

Yes,people ,except polish territories,would not support creating their own states.
Surviving A-H woud stop Hitler in 1938,and,if they get support from Poland,they could actually beat germans and made free Bavarian state.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
So after 1866. defeat against Prussia, Austrian Empire does not transform into Austria-Hungary but instead federalizes based on the US model. Will this be enough to save it from falling apart in the First World War, and if so, how does it affect the future history - especially potential Second World War?

EDIT: Year.
The magyar aristocracy is going to scream bloody murder, as will the Austrian aristocracy and other haughty blue bloods, IMHO.

The Magyars wanting to keep down their slavic populations and prevent industrialization, and their shenanigans forced Austria-Hungary to spend more money on security than was necessary.

IMHO it is very unlikely for this federalization to work in the heart of Europe, and since the age of nationalism was upon us most of its neighbors would have started to chip at its territory in short order.
 

Buba

A total creep
forced Austria-Hungary to spend more money on security than was necessary.
???
A-H spent c.2,5% of GDP on its military, the lowest figure among the Great Powers (same league as Italy).
France and Russia regularly spent 4-5%, Germany and UK - c.3,5%.
Surviving A-H woud stop Hitler in 1938
I cannot imagine Hitler duplicating his OTL career in a world with a surviving A-H.
 
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ATP

Well-known member
???
A-H spent c.2,5% of GDP on its military, the lowest figure among the Great Powers (same league as Italy).
France and Russia regularly spent 4-5%, Germany and UK - 3-3,5%.

I cannot imagine Hitler duplicating his OTL career in a world with a surviving A-H.

1.True
2.Again,true.So - stopping germans when they try attack Poland.Any german leader would do so.
 

Agent23

Ни шагу назад!
???
A-H spent c.2,5% of GDP on its military, the lowest figure among the Great Powers (same league as Italy).
France and Russia regularly spent 4-5%, Germany and UK - 3-3,5%.
What about the various security forces that kept down the polyglot population?
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
This requires kicking the Hungarians into submission, but it can be achieved. As mentioned, you probably need Franz-Joseph to have a personality transplant, though. Or somehow contrive for some extremely influential advisor to set him on this course.

Anyway, this means any reform happens on Austrian terms. As also mentioned, it certainly won't be like the USA. That approach was utterly alien to Austria-Hungary, and probably for the best. The situations are far too different.

You'd probably see Austria directly absorb the German-majority border regions of Hungary. The region of Slovenia (including Trieste and the surrounding coast) would probably also be integrally included in Austria, without much local opposition. The Sudetenland would also become part of Austria proper, but Bohemia and Moravia (separately!) would each become independent provinces with cultural autonomy.

You'd certainly see a separate Croatian province, with similar autonomy, incorporating the Croat-majority Southern part of Istria.

The Slovakians would get similar autonomy. Galicia-Lodomeria(-Bukovina) would be split into Little Poland (or whatever) and Galicia, although I could see the latter being sub-divided further, splitting off Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia to become its own province. In any case, each of these would also have cultural autonomy.

As far as the Romanian regions are concerned, a lot depend on how things play out with the Hungarians. I think the Banat, Southern Transylvania and the Romanian border strip in Bukovina will probably be organised as Romanian provinces. The Székely Land will almost certainly remain Hungarian, though, and Northern Transylvania (the region connecting Székely Land to Hungary proper) may also remain Hungarian -- or be organised as a culturally mixed region where Hungarian and Romanian both have cultural protection.

Trentino may remain integrally included in Tyrol (and thus Austria), but there's a slight chance that it might get autonomy, too.

Various German-majority regions may become exclaves, organised as part of Austria proper.

The Serbian-majority regions in the Voivodeship may well get autonomy, too. Since the POD is before the Austrian occupation of Bosnia, this actually opens avenues for the Austrians to become agents of Serbian independence.



For the moment, this arrangement would be stable enough. In the long term, there would be clear impulses towards separatism. Trentino for certain. The Serbs in the Voivodeship quite possibly (although, depending on circumstances, that might be allowed if it results in an Austrian-allied Serbia). The Poles will not move until there's a real shot at an independent Poland, but when there is, they'll want this (although, again, that could be a Poland under a Habsburg monarch, so the separatism might be formally endorsed as part of that scheme). The Romanians will probably seek to split off in due time, as well.

The Czechs and Slovaks aren't really in a good position for separatism. I think Slovenia may want more autonomy eventually, but will likewise stay within the Empire. Croatia, too. Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia and Galicia will have a bunch of Greek Catholics, so even if (Orthodox!) Ukraine ever gains independence, they may not have any desire to join that country.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
This requires kicking the Hungarians into submission, but it can be achieved. As mentioned, you probably need Franz-Joseph to have a personality transplant, though. Or somehow contrive for some extremely influential advisor to set him on this course.

Anyway, this means any reform happens on Austrian terms. As also mentioned, it certainly won't be like the USA. That approach was utterly alien to Austria-Hungary, and probably for the best. The situations are far too different.

You'd probably see Austria directly absorb the German-majority border regions of Hungary. The region of Slovenia (including Trieste and the surrounding coast) would probably also be integrally included in Austria, without much local opposition. The Sudetenland would also become part of Austria proper, but Bohemia and Moravia (separately!) would each become independent provinces with cultural autonomy.

You'd certainly see a separate Croatian province, with similar autonomy, incorporating the Croat-majority Southern part of Istria.

The Slovakians would get similar autonomy. Galicia-Lodomeria(-Bukovina) would be split into Little Poland (or whatever) and Galicia, although I could see the latter being sub-divided further, splitting off Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia to become its own province. In any case, each of these would also have cultural autonomy.

As far as the Romanian regions are concerned, a lot depend on how things play out with the Hungarians. I think the Banat, Southern Transylvania and the Romanian border strip in Bukovina will probably be organised as Romanian provinces. The Székely Land will almost certainly remain Hungarian, though, and Northern Transylvania (the region connecting Székely Land to Hungary proper) may also remain Hungarian -- or be organised as a culturally mixed region where Hungarian and Romanian both have cultural protection.

Trentino may remain integrally included in Tyrol (and thus Austria), but there's a slight chance that it might get autonomy, too.

Various German-majority regions may become exclaves, organised as part of Austria proper.

The Serbian-majority regions in the Voivodeship may well get autonomy, too. Since the POD is before the Austrian occupation of Bosnia, this actually opens avenues for the Austrians to become agents of Serbian independence.



For the moment, this arrangement would be stable enough. In the long term, there would be clear impulses towards separatism. Trentino for certain. The Serbs in the Voivodeship quite possibly (although, depending on circumstances, that might be allowed if it results in an Austrian-allied Serbia). The Poles will not move until there's a real shot at an independent Poland, but when there is, they'll want this (although, again, that could be a Poland under a Habsburg monarch, so the separatism might be formally endorsed as part of that scheme). The Romanians will probably seek to split off in due time, as well.

The Czechs and Slovaks aren't really in a good position for separatism. I think Slovenia may want more autonomy eventually, but will likewise stay within the Empire. Croatia, too. Sub-Carpathian Ruthenia and Galicia will have a bunch of Greek Catholics, so even if (Orthodox!) Ukraine ever gains independence, they may not have any desire to join that country.

What's interesting is that central Northern Transylvania was actually pretty solidly Romanian-majority:

Romania_1930_ethnic_map_EN.png


The main Hungarian-majority parts of Northern Transylvania were Szekely Land and the border areas near Hungary. This is why, for instance, the USoGA plan placed all of Transylvania as a single unit:


1024px-Greater_austria.png


As for an independent Ukraine, Galicia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia can be a separate autonomous unit within a Greater Ukraine. Maybe even two units if necessary.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
BTW, there's an interesting 1942 Foreign Affairs article by Otto von Hapsburg titled "Danubian Reconstruction" about the value of Austria-Hungary and recreating it and about how a revived Austria-Hungary can copy the US Senate model and have two senators for all of its constituent parts/territories or something like that:


You can find this article for free in its entirety on LibGen. It's very good, IMHO.
 

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