Eduard Shevardnadze killed in Sukhumi

[PsihoKekec]

During the fall of Sukhumi, Georgian president (Speaker of the Parliament with presidential powers to be exact) Shevardnadze left the city on the last flight, right before the city fell. It is quite likely that Russian troops and Abkhasian separatist were under orders to let him escape, but what if some of the less disciplined elements of the force managed to shoot down the airplane during the takeoff?

This would leave a mayor power vacuum in the country. The overthrown president Gamsakhurdia had returned to the country and his supporters took much of western Georgia, OTL the Shevardnadze had to ask Russia to help him crush them, but if he is dead, it is unlikely anyone else would beg them for assistance. The triumvirate that brought him in power is still active, as Shevardnadze only managed to sideline them by this time. They are sworn enemies of Gamsakhurdia, so there is no chance of reconciliation, meaning there would probably be another prolonged round of civil war.

What do you think would be the result of civil war and what would be the subsequent Georgian politics?

 

[Circle of Willis]

From an overview of the Georgian Civil War's Wiki article & maps, as you say it does seem as though Gamsakhurdia was making progress and had taken over most of the west of the country before getting flattened after Russia agreed to help Shevardnadze. Maybe in these circumstances he could defeat the now-headless and even more discredited opposition (who have lost not only the secessionist regions but also their figurehead), but he was apparently a staunch nationalist and anti-Russian in outlook (prone to denouncing his enemies as agents of the Kremlin, though he might've been right about some or even most of them in hindsight, heh) so Russia will likely go in to crush him if they can anyway. I could imagine Jaba Ioseliani, a powerful mobster with his own paramilitary and firm opponent of Gamsakhurdia's, as an alternative candidate to lead a pro-Russian puppet government after Russia moves in to end Gamsakhurdia themselves.

If somehow Gamsakhurdia manages to hang on to power and not get steamrolled by Russia right away (let's say he holds out until the First Chechen War breaks out & distracts the Bear from tearing his head off), I could see him being encouraged to try bumrushing the separatist regions during or immediately after the First Chechen War. (Attempting to do so at any other time seems like it'd just turn him into Saakashvili 0.1) Maybe he'd succeed in Ossetia while Russia is distracted & reeling, since it was the weaker of the two breakaways, although Abkhazia seems a bigger and tougher nut to crack - and considering the Abkhaz got up to ethnic cleansing in their victory while Gamsakhurdia was an ardent Georgian nationalist, I think it's very likely that if he does win he's going to seek revenge, causing yet another humanitarian crisis and likely ruining his image in the eyes of the West (unless Bush/Clinton decide that a friendly Georgia is well worth overlooking any Georgian war crimes).

But unless he can get Georgia into NATO before 2000 or Russia remains under the rule of one Yeltsin-tier disaster after another following Yeltsin's own resignation, Georgia's probably hosed in the medium to long term anyway once the Russians have sufficiently sorted themselves out.

 

[WolfBear]

But unless he can get Georgia into NATO before 2000 or Russia remains under the rule of one Yeltsin-tier disaster after another following Yeltsin's own resignation, Georgia's probably hosed in the medium to long term anyway once the Russians have sufficiently sorted themselves out.

What about if Yuri Luzhkov succeeds Yeltsin? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yury_Luzhkov

 

[Circle of Willis]

What about if Yuri Luzhkov succeeds Yeltsin? :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yury_Luzhkov

I don't think it really matters who succeeds Yeltsin, if they have even a single nationalistic bone in their body (or are at least forced to look like it by the public) they're likely going to go after a Gamsakhurdia-led Georgia that's managed to retake one or both of the separatist regions, barring either Georgia becoming a NATO country early on or the two countries managing to reach an accommodation along the lines of Finlandizing Georgia (doubtful that this would ever happen under Gamsakhurdia, IMO, he seems to have been positively seething at the Russians after they helped Shevardnadze & Ioseliani overthrow him the first time and then backed the various separatists).

I mean hell, even Alexei Navalny bashed Georgia back in the day. I can't imagine he or any other 'liberal reformer' type in Russia would be very happy if the Georgians have a militantly anti-Russian government in place from the '90s onward, and have also potentially embarrassed Russia & driven thousands of Abkhaz/Ossetian refugees onto Russian territory following a revanchist spree against the separatists.

 

[WolfBear]

I don't think it really matters who succeeds Yeltsin, if they have even a single nationalistic bone in their body (or are at least forced to look like it by the public) they're likely going to go after a Gamsakhurdia-led Georgia that's managed to retake one or both of the separatist regions, barring either Georgia becoming a NATO country early on or the two countries managing to reach an accommodation along the lines of Finlandizing Georgia (doubtful that this would ever happen under Gamsakhurdia, IMO, he seems to have been positively seething at the Russians after they helped Shevardnadze & Ioseliani overthrow him the first time and then backed the various separatists).

I mean hell, even Alexei Navalny bashed Georgia back in the day. I can't imagine he or any other 'liberal reformer' type in Russia would be very happy if the Georgians have a militantly anti-Russian government in place from the '90s onward, and have also potentially embarrassed Russia & driven thousands of Abkhaz/Ossetian refugees onto Russian territory following a revanchist spree against the separatists.

Excellent analysis! And re: Navalny: AFAIK, he referred to Central Asians and/or Caucasians as "cockroaches" in the past! Ouch!