Empress Elizabeth of Russia dies a little bit later

[WolfBear]

What if Empress Elizabeth of Russia dies a little bit later? Say, a couple of years or more later than she did in real life? One huge effect of this would be that she and not her nephew, Tsar Peter III, would be in charge of dictating the peace settlement in Europe at the end of the Seven Years' War. This would bode very poorly for Frederick the Great, since he would likely be forced to give up East Prussia, which AFAIK Russia under Empress Elizabeth wanted to give to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in exchange for Russia itself acquiring Courland from it. I don't know if Frederick the Great would have actually gotten any compensation for this--Saxony, perhaps?

Anyway, what effect would these territorial changes have on subsequent European geopolitics, such as on the partitions of Poland? Could the partitions of Poland be completely avoided in this scenario?

 

[stevep]

What if Empress Elizabeth of Russia dies a little bit later? Say, a couple of years or more later than she did in real life? One huge effect of this would be that she and not her nephew, Tsar Peter III, would be in charge of dictating the peace settlement in Europe at the end of the Seven Years' War. This would bode very poorly for Frederick the Great, since he would likely be forced to give up East Prussia, which AFAIK Russia under Empress Elizabeth wanted to give to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in exchange for Russia itself acquiring Courland from it. I don't know if Frederick the Great would have actually gotten any compensation for this--Saxony, perhaps?

Anyway, what effect would these territorial changes have on subsequent European geopolitics, such as on the partitions of Poland? Could the partitions of Poland be completely avoided in this scenario?

WolfBear

In that scenario I would suspect that Prussia doesn't get Saxony, as its in no position to argue for any compensation and since the empress seems not to have liked Frederick and Austria of course had no reason to want them having Saxony, which is markedly richer than E Prussia. Plus what do you do with the deposed Welfs? It would be unlikely given the values at the time that a dynasty of such historical relevance would have been deposed without any compensation. In fact if Prussia is being curb-stomped this badly Austria might well seek to regain Silesia.

Depending on how badly Prussia is battered but I would suspect that the partitions still occur. Poland is very weak because of its internal divisions and constitution and Russia is determined to keep it that way. Russia will still want a lot of its eastern territories, many of which are Orthodox. Prussia will now want both west and east Prussia and Austria is likely to be persuaded at some point to join in. If nothing else it won't be able to oppose the other two on their own.

One other thought just occurred to me. With Prussia markedly weakened, especially if it also lost Silesia, would Joseph's planned swap of the Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria go ahead? - Although I'm not sure how much of both areas were under discussion. True you will have the French revolution possibly coming along to disrupt everything but Austria with Silesia and Bavaria is going to be a markedly more Germanic power and depending how things go may not be supplanted by Prussia in such a TL. In which case what happens with Germany?

Steve

 

[WolfBear]

WolfBear

In that scenario I would suspect that Prussia doesn't get Saxony, as its in no position to argue for any compensation and since the empress seems not to have liked Frederick and Austria of course had no reason to want them having Saxony, which is markedly richer than E Prussia. Plus what do you do with the deposed Welfs? It would be unlikely given the values at the time that a dynasty of such historical relevance would have been deposed without any compensation. In fact if Prussia is being curb-stomped this badly Austria might well seek to regain Silesia.

Depending on how badly Prussia is battered but I would suspect that the partitions still occur. Poland is very weak because of its internal divisions and constitution and Russia is determined to keep it that way. Russia will still want a lot of its eastern territories, many of which are Orthodox. Prussia will now want both west and east Prussia and Austria is likely to be persuaded at some point to join in. If nothing else it won't be able to oppose the other two on their own.

One other thought just occurred to me. With Prussia markedly weakened, especially if it also lost Silesia, would Joseph's planned swap of the Austrian Netherlands for Bavaria go ahead? - Although I'm not sure how much of both areas were under discussion. True you will have the French revolution possibly coming along to disrupt everything but Austria with Silesia and Bavaria is going to be a markedly more Germanic power and depending how things go may not be supplanted by Prussia in such a TL. In which case what happens with Germany?

Steve

Who ends up getting the Austrian Netherlands in this TL?

You can decide what happens to the Welfs.

And Yes, Austria will very likely seek to reacquire Silesia in this scenario.

And even if the partitions of Poland still occur, the lines are going to be different here, no? Prussia will be in a weaker starting position, after all.

 

[stevep]

Who ends up getting the Austrian Netherlands in this TL?

You can decide what happens to the Welfs.

And Yes, Austria will very likely seek to reacquire Silesia in this scenario.

And even if the partitions of Poland still occur, the lines are going to be different here, no? Prussia will be in a weaker starting position, after all.

The broadest suggestion was that the Wittelsbachs, who ruled the electorate of Bavaria would take over the Austrian Netherlands - basically OTL Belgium minus the bishopric of Liege and Austria would get Bavaria. See the War_of_the_Bavarian_Succession for more details, especially the section on 'deal maker'. Although IIRC lesser lands would be involved. At the time 'Belgium' was a markedly richer land than Bavaria but a constant problem to defend against French attacks. Joseph, the Austrian co-ruler with his mother Maria Theresa wanted to increase the dynasties German lands to secure the continued election of the dynasty as Holy Roman Emperor, although his mother seems to have been unsupportive on this issue.

I would say that the Welfs would keep Saxony. They were nowadays, given the hostility of Prussia, generally friendly to Austria so its in everybody but Prussia's interest to keep them in power there.

Definitely the lines would be different, which could actually be better for Prussia if the French revolution is avoided. OTL after the last partition they had Warsaw as their largest city and about as many Polish as German subjects which could have been an issue in the longer term. Their starting from a weaker starting position, especially if they lose Silesia as well so probably their main gains would be both parts of Prussia and possibly the Posen region, which would give them the sort of eastern border that they had from 1815-1919. Austria would probably end up with more of Poland, possibly getting Warsaw here. Looking at a map after the final partition, see here you might end up with say the lands given to Prussia in the 3rd partition end up going mostly to Russia, largely and Austria.

There would be a good basis here for a 'Polish' kingdom as part of the Hapsburg empire although of course if the French revolution and then some Napoleon figure emerges a lot would change. A lot would depend on events elsewhere.

Steve

 

[WolfBear]

The broadest suggestion was that the Wittelsbachs, who ruled the electorate of Bavaria would take over the Austrian Netherlands - basically OTL Belgium minus the bishopric of Liege and Austria would get Bavaria. See the War_of_the_Bavarian_Succession for more details, especially the section on 'deal maker'. Although IIRC lesser lands would be involved. At the time 'Belgium' was a markedly richer land than Bavaria but a constant problem to defend against French attacks. Joseph, the Austrian co-ruler with his mother Maria Theresa wanted to increase the dynasties German lands to secure the continued election of the dynasty as Holy Roman Emperor, although his mother seems to have been unsupportive on this issue.

I would say that the Welfs would keep Saxony. They were nowadays, given the hostility of Prussia, generally friendly to Austria so its in everybody but Prussia's interest to keep them in power there.

Definitely the lines would be different, which could actually be better for Prussia if the French revolution is avoided. OTL after the last partition they had Warsaw as their largest city and about as many Polish as German subjects which could have been an issue in the longer term. Their starting from a weaker starting position, especially if they lose Silesia as well so probably their main gains would be both parts of Prussia and possibly the Posen region, which would give them the sort of eastern border that they had from 1815-1919. Austria would probably end up with more of Poland, possibly getting Warsaw here. Looking at a map after the final partition, see here you might end up with say the lands given to Prussia in the 3rd partition end up going mostly to Russia, largely and Austria.

There would be a good basis here for a 'Polish' kingdom as part of the Hapsburg empire although of course if the French revolution and then some Napoleon figure emerges a lot would change. A lot would depend on events elsewhere.

Steve

Good analysis. Re: Napoleon: He himself likely won't be born in this TL due to the butterfly effect, but someone similar could rise in his place, albeit not necessarily from the same family. Still, an "alt-Napoleon" might not necessarily be willing to alienate Europe as much as the real Napoleon did and thus could, for instance, allow France to permanently keep its eastern border on the Rhine River. This in itself would have huge effects down the line.

Natural borders of France - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org