What if Empress Elizabeth of Russia dies a little bit later? Say, a couple of years or more later than she did in real life? One huge effect of this would be that she and not her nephew, Tsar Peter III, would be in charge of dictating the peace settlement in Europe at the end of the Seven Years' War. This would bode very poorly for Frederick the Great, since he would likely be forced to give up East Prussia, which AFAIK Russia under Empress Elizabeth wanted to give to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth in exchange for Russia itself acquiring Courland from it. I don't know if Frederick the Great would have actually gotten any compensation for this--Saxony, perhaps?
Anyway, what effect would these territorial changes have on subsequent European geopolitics, such as on the partitions of Poland? Could the partitions of Poland be completely avoided in this scenario?
Anyway, what effect would these territorial changes have on subsequent European geopolitics, such as on the partitions of Poland? Could the partitions of Poland be completely avoided in this scenario?