Excellence in Polling

[Husky_Khan]

So I had these graphics professionally created in MS Paint this morning.

Susan Collins v. Sara Gideon... Gideon projected to win in every poll, in some by upwards of twelve points!

Spoiler: 2020 Maine Senate Elections

Gary Peters v. John James in Michigan... several elections projected the incumbent Gary Peters winning by 12... 13... even 15 points!

Spoiler: 2020 Michigan Senate Elections

Thom Tillis v. Cal Cunningham... Of the past twenty plus or so polls... one has a draw and two project a Tillis victory. But most project a comfortable Cunningham win just above the margin of error!

Spoiler: 2020 North Carolina Senate Elections

Lindsey Graham v. Swamp Creature Jaime Harrison... STATISTICAL DEAD HEAT!

Spoiler: 2020 South Carolina Senate Elections

2020 Presidential Elections between Donald Trump and Sleepy Joe Biden. Biden wins every poll except one and often by double digits... aggregates project a 7.5% to 8.5% point victory.

Spoiler: 2020 Presidential Election

Well done all around I think. They definitely improved from 2016 in their projections.

 

[MelancholicMechanicus]

It's quite simple what has happened here: Outdated methodology, outdated basis of data sourcing, dishonest reporting and wish fulfillment came together to destroy the science of political polling.

 

[ShieldWife]

Polls are primarily a method of disseminating information, not gathering it. Polls give Biden the edge to create a bandwagon effect, to energize his supporters while discouraging Trump supporters.