FF not assassinated in 1914, A-H civil war in 1917?

[sillygoose]

What if FF managed to dodge his assassination in 1914, say his driver parks in a different side street and Princip doesn't get his chance. Things in Europe remain relatively quiet until 1917 when the Ausgleich negotiations are up. It seems that FF and the head of the Hungarian parliament, Count Tisza were bitter enemies and both planned to turn the 1917 Ausgleich renewal into a major showdown that threatened to cause a civil war, especially if Franz Josef had died or would die shortly:

István Tisza - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

On 19 February 1910, Tisza established the National Party of Work (Nemzeti Munkapárt) which subsequently won the election of 1910. He did not desire to form a government, primarily due to his conflict with Franz Ferdinand who sought to centralise the Habsburg Monarchy with universal suffrage. Tisza opposed this initiative, as he believed that this would lead to the weakening of the Magyar supremacy over ethnic minorities in Hungary. In addition, he claimed demagogues (i.e. Communists and agrarian socialist movements) would manipulate peasants to put in power groups that oppose democracy.[13] Tisza was supported by the emperor, but he feared a repeat of the faults of his first prime ministry and thus called for Károly Khuen-Héderváry to form the new government. Despite Tisza was not prime minister again until 1913, as the founder of the National Party of Work, his power and influence on the ruling majority party was completely absolute. In this way Tisza could remain the key figure of Hungarian politics and legislation behind the curtains, even without having premiership.

More info:

A Letter of Count Tisza's on JSTOR

Stephen Tisza, Hamilton Fish Armstrong, A Letter of Count Tisza's, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Apr., 1928), pp. 501-504

www.jstor.org

The situation was even more complicated because Berlin preferred Tisza to Ferdinand:

https://ww1.habsburger.net/en/chapters/istvan-graf-tisza-hungarys-strong-man

Tisza became the ‘strong man’ of Hungary and was able to continue his previous policies. He was an uncompromising representative of Magyar interests in the supranational state, which made him into a bitter opponent of the heir to the throne Archduke Franz Ferdinand, who sought to water down the special status of the Magyars established by the 1867 Compromise and to strengthen the central authority. Tisza also rejected an extension of federalism, which would have helped the smaller nations to obtain more autonomous rights.

Tisza’s dictatorial regime also influenced the political atmosphere in the first years of the First World War. Supporters of change in conservative Viennese circles looked enviously at Budapest. Thanks to his firm opposition to democratic tendencies, Tisza was also seen in Berlin as a more dependable partner than the government in Vienna, which had to be more open to compromise in view of the diverging interests of the various national groups.

FF considered pulling the the trigger on Plan U:
From Geoffrey Wawro A Mad Catastrophe:

"All objective observers laid the decline of the Austro-Hungarian military at Hungary’s door. The rulers in Vienna were no exception, and following the 1903 concessions those outside the emperor’s drowsy and rather credulous inner circle began planning to do something about the Hungarian impediment. Quietly, the forty-two-year-old Archduke Franz Ferdinand added a Plan U—as in Ungarn (Hungary)—to the raft of Austrian war plans in 1905. If the Hungarians continued their obstruction of every Austrian effort to revive the monarchy, a large Austrian army would stream into Hungary by rail and the Danube, seize Budapest, and install a Habsburg military governor. Of the five Austro-Hungarian corps situated in Transleithania, only one—IV Corps, recruited around Budapest—was expected to fight for Hungary in a civil war. The rest were manned with Croats, Rumanians, Slovaks, Ukrainians, and Serbs and were expected to fight for the emperor. According to the French embassy, a civil war “like 1848,” when Austrian troops had invaded Hungary and crushed a revolution there, was avoided in the early 1900s only because the Hungarians knew that they would lose a military contest and the Austrians feared that the Italians would seize the opportunity presented by an Austro-Hungarian civil war to invade contested Habsburg territories like Trieste, Trentino, and South Tyrol."

By 1917 the Hungarian Honved had gained artillery units and was quite a bit more formidable than in 1905, so Tisza, having become more radical and firmly in charge of the Hungarian political scene, seems like he would have fought rather than let FF have his way.

So what happens with the 1917 Ausgleich and do other countries get involved if war starts? The Russian military build up start in 1914 would have finished in 1917 and Germany was slated to scrap the Schlieffen Plan in 1915.

 

[PsihoKekec]

FF was an inflexible man and so was Tisza, so the two were unlikely to reach a compromise and escalate it into war instead, perhaps dragging the political turmoil into 1918 before the fighting starts.
I reckon the plan U was too optimistic and the quick and decisive operation would turn into protracted fight, giving Italians a chance to do their thing, although with Italian politics being what they are, they would most likely drag their feet until most of the fighting is done. Serbia would seek to stoke the unrest in Bosnia, but I doubt Russia would back any overt military adventurism, although it wouldn't be out of character for them to send mixed signals due to dysfunctionality of their diplomacy.
Germans would be facepalming and trying to intimidate everyone against intervening, France would be laughing with glee and prodding Italy and Russia into getting involved, while the British would hope they won't get involved into shooting war on the continent.

 

[Aaron Fox]

Germans would be facepalming and trying to intimidate everyone against intervening, France would be laughing with glee and prodding Italy and Russia into getting involved, while the British leadership would hope they would get involved into a shooting war on the continent.

FIFY. You've got to remember that the British wants a weakened Europe just so they stay at the top. Remember that during this time Germany was becoming the economic and technological center of Europe, not Britain (seriously, Germany was pretty much pumping out various geniuses and technologies during the years leading up to the 1st World War)... and for Britain that can't stand.

 

[sillygoose]

FIFY. You've got to remember that the British wants a weakened Europe just so they stay at the top. Remember that during this time Germany was becoming the economic and technological center of Europe, not Britain (seriously, Germany was pretty much pumping out various geniuses and technologies during the years leading up to the 1st World War)... and for Britain that can't stand.

There is the balance of power issue, so if Germany doesn't start the war Britain could well come in on their side to prevent Franco-Russian hegemony on the continent.

 

[Aaron Fox]

There is the balance of power issue, so if Germany doesn't start the war Britain could well come in on their side to prevent Franco-Russian hegemony on the continent.

While possible, I wouldn't be surprised that they didn't...

 

[stevep]

FIFY. You've got to remember that the British wants a weakened Europe just so they stay at the top. Remember that during this time Germany was becoming the economic and technological center of Europe, not Britain (seriously, Germany was pretty much pumping out various geniuses and technologies during the years leading up to the 1st World War)... and for Britain that can't stand.

No Britain wants a Europe that isn't dominated by a single power/bloc that would be a potential threat to Britain's independence. As such while they would seek to end the war by diplomatic means, for both humamitarian and economic reasons British military intervention is unlikely as long as it looked like no one would win big.

 

[Aaron Fox]

No Britain wants a Europe that isn't dominated by a single power/bloc that would be a potential threat to Britain's independence. As such while they would seek to end the war by diplomatic means, for both humamitarian and economic reasons British military intervention is unlikely as long as it looked like no one would win big.

Problem is, Germany will win big regardless for you are talking about possibly one of the most economically powerful nations on the continent, thus there is a decent probability that they would let Germany be left to dry...

 

[sillygoose]

Problem is, Germany will win big regardless for you are talking about possibly one of the most economically powerful nations on the continent, thus there is a decent probability that they would let Germany be left to dry...

Germany being defeated at low cost by Russia and France is the opposite of what Britain wants. Look at how they turned on France immediately after the war to help Germany out of the Treaty of Versailles when France occupied the Ruhr or how they helped build Hitler up to oppose the USSR in the 1930s. Germany on its own, isolated in Europe, is not good for Britain, as Germany was Britain's largest trade partner in Europe and it being defeated and carved up how France and Russia wanted would leave Britain economically worse off.

As threatening as Germany was IOTL they were economically very important to Britain:

The Economic Relations of the British and German Empires on JSTOR

Edgar Crammond, The Economic Relations of the British and German Empires, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Vol. 77, No. 8 (Jul., 1914), pp. 777-824

www.jstor.org

That trade relationship was only expanding and was set to do so even more once some planned political reforms broke the stranglehold the Junkers had tariffs, which favored they used to favor their agricultural products over industrial exports.

IOTL Germany got too big for their britches (in the British view) since they initiated the war and their victory would leave them in control of the continent, but Germany with a collapsing ally and Europe turning on them out of opportunism is a very different situation. Even in victory in that situation Germany wouldn't be nearly as powerful as they'd have been with a victory IOTL.

 

[Buba]

Please remind me Good People - what exactly did the Ausgleich address?

Another thing - we know that FJ was a barely competent ruler at best. I see him as the worst possible kind - a hard working idiot. FF being a smarter political operator than FJ is a low bar to cross.

So, would it not be possible to circumvent the ruling Hungarian elite by "overthrowing" it with the Hungarian middle class? Can't the King of Hungary change - or push HARD for the change - the electoral franchise? Even the rather restrictive UK wealth based franchise would increase the voter base forty time!

Wouldn't this put new people in charge in Hungary? Answering to different interest groups? Beholden - for a time - to FF? "Owing him" for their place in the sun?

FF = new broom, tries things which simply were beyond FJ's imagination?

 

[Aaron Fox]

Ausgleich, from what I understand, addresses all sorts of problems that were festering in the AH for decades, if not centuries. We're talking language problems, mustering problems, etc.

 

[stevep]

Problem is, Germany will win big regardless for you are talking about possibly one of the most economically powerful nations on the continent, thus there is a decent probability that they would let Germany be left to dry...

Not if Austria is in chaos and possible civil war, or even a nervous neutral. That greatly reduces the resources available to aid Berlin and makes it unlikely that either Turkey or Bulgaria are going to aid them.

 

[sillygoose]

Please remind me Good People - what exactly did the Ausgleich address?

The political problems with the Hungarians:

Austro-Hungarian Compromise of 1867 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It ended the military occupation of Hungary after the 1848 civil war.

So, would it not be possible to circumvent the ruling Hungarian elite by "overthrowing" it with the Hungarian middle class? Can't the King of Hungary change - or push HARD for the change - the electoral franchise? Even the rather restrictive UK wealth based franchise would increase the voter base forty time!

Not by the constitution since voting rights requirements were written in such a way (land ownership+tax payment standards) to give the Magyar nobility a lock on parliament. That is why FF wanted to overthrow the existing compromise if the Hungarian parliament didn't want to make reforms and institute a new constitution to give the average Hungarian (not necessarily Magyar ethnically) the vote, which would ensure the nobility could never dominate the process again.

Wouldn't this put new people in charge in Hungary? Answering to different interest groups? Beholden - for a time - to FF? "Owing him" for their place in the sun?

Yes.

FF = new broom, tries things which simply were beyond FJ's imagination?

FJ wanted to avoid civil war at all costs; FF did to except he was willing to risk certain things to reform the system. It was more a matter of FJ being too old to risk change and FF being young enough to be willing to having seen that the Magyar nobility were willing to break the system to hold on to power.

 

[Buba]

Looking at the wiki, the deci-annual negotiations had a quite narrow scope:
The monetary and economic terms of the Compromise and the customs union had to be renegotiated every ten years.

 

[sillygoose]

Looking at the wiki, the deci-annual negotiations had a quite narrow scope:
The monetary and economic terms of the Compromise and the customs union had to be renegotiated every ten years.

Indeed, which is why the politics were so messed up every time they tried to change anything.

 

[WolfBear]

What if FF managed to dodge his assassination in 1914, say his driver parks in a different side street and Princip doesn't get his chance. Things in Europe remain relatively quiet until 1917 when the Ausgleich negotiations are up. It seems that FF and the head of the Hungarian parliament, Count Tisza were bitter enemies and both planned to turn the 1917 Ausgleich renewal into a major showdown that threatened to cause a civil war, especially if Franz Josef had died or would die shortly:

István Tisza - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

More info:

A Letter of Count Tisza's on JSTOR

Stephen Tisza, Hamilton Fish Armstrong, A Letter of Count Tisza's, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 6, No. 3 (Apr., 1928), pp. 501-504

www.jstor.org

The situation was even more complicated because Berlin preferred Tisza to Ferdinand:

https://ww1.habsburger.net/en/chapters/istvan-graf-tisza-hungarys-strong-man

FF considered pulling the the trigger on Plan U:
From Geoffrey Wawro A Mad Catastrophe:

By 1917 the Hungarian Honved had gained artillery units and was quite a bit more formidable than in 1905, so Tisza, having become more radical and firmly in charge of the Hungarian political scene, seems like he would have fought rather than let FF have his way.

So what happens with the 1917 Ausgleich and do other countries get involved if war starts? The Russian military build up start in 1914 would have finished in 1917 and Germany was slated to scrap the Schlieffen Plan in 1915.

One scenario that I flirted with is having no one help the Hungarians but also have Serbia and/or Romania attempt to expand at Austria-Hungary's expense during the Austro-Hungarian civil war in 1917. Then if Austria-Hungary will want its lost territories back, it would have to go to war against Serbia and/or Romania, who will have Franco-Russian backing (if not, then they won't attempt such a stunt in the first place, thus making this issue a moot point). I could also see Italy using this moment to press its own territorial claims on Austria-Hungary.

Basically, I expect Britain, France, and Germany to try searching for some kind of negotiated solution to this problem through arbitration. Maybe something along the lines of "Italy gets the Italian-majority parts of A-H, minus Trieste, Istria, and Fiume, Serbia gets the Serb-majority parts of A-H, and Romania gets the Romanian-majority parts of A-H, but otherwise A-H's territorial integrity is not only preserved, but also permanently guaranteed by all of the European Great Powers for all time". But if one or both of the sides will reject the results of this arbitration, then war might very well result. I would think that Franz Ferdinand would prefer to accept an arbitrated solution like this than to go to war with Russia, a war that he greatly feared would result in the downfall of the Hapsburgs and/or the Romanovs. Still, pride can be a very powerful thing--as can national honor. So, I just don't know for sure what he would have done.

 

[WolfBear]

It's worth noting that there is logic in allowing Franz Ferdinand to give Transylvania to Romania: It both punishes the rebellious Magyars and also ensures Romania's loyalty (esp. if Bukovina is also a part of the package). With Romania's territorial claims against Austria-Hungary being more-or-less satisfied, only Romania's territorial claims against Russia would be left--which is bad news for Russia.

 

[WolfBear]

One scenario that I flirted with is having no one help the Hungarians but also have Serbia and/or Romania attempt to expand at Austria-Hungary's expense during the Austro-Hungarian civil war in 1917. Then if Austria-Hungary will want its lost territories back, it would have to go to war against Serbia and/or Romania, who will have Franco-Russian backing (if not, then they won't attempt such a stunt in the first place, thus making this issue a moot point). I could also see Italy using this moment to press its own territorial claims on Austria-Hungary.

Basically, I expect Britain, France, and Germany to try searching for some kind of negotiated solution to this problem through arbitration. Maybe something along the lines of "Italy gets the Italian-majority parts of A-H, minus Trieste, Istria, and Fiume, Serbia gets the Serb-majority parts of A-H, and Romania gets the Romanian-majority parts of A-H, but otherwise A-H's territorial integrity is not only preserved, but also permanently guaranteed by all of the European Great Powers for all time". But if one or both of the sides will reject the results of this arbitration, then war might very well result. I would think that Franz Ferdinand would prefer to accept an arbitrated solution like this than to go to war with Russia, a war that he greatly feared would result in the downfall of the Hapsburgs and/or the Romanovs. Still, pride can be a very powerful thing--as can national honor. So, I just don't know for sure what he would have done.

@sillygoose If Hungary attempts to secede from A-H in 1917, would it be plausible for Bosnia's Landtag (Diet) to vote in favor of Bosnia's secession from A-H and joining Serbia? Would Serbia, Russia, France, and Britain, or at least the first three countries here, actually be willing to support the Bosnian Landtag if it did this?

 

[raharris1973]

Serbia would seek to stoke the unrest in Bosnia, but I doubt Russia would back any overt military adventurism, although it wouldn't be out of character for them to send mixed signals due to dysfunctionality of their diplomacy.

Right, for example, Russian Ambassador Hartwig in Belgrade encouraging maximum aggressiveness by the Serbs - if that man's cardiovascular system holds out another three years.

 

[Buba]

There are more relevant players around than just A-H, Serbia and Russia.
In 1913 A-H and Russia both backed down because their backers told them lolnope. In 1914 Poincare issued the carte blanche to Russian warmongering crazies and thus started World War One. If not reined in by the ruling Paris Clique, he'd do so again.
Britain - in 1917 it would under Tories, looking askance at Russian and French battleship programmes* (and maybe fantasising about Russian troops pouring through Khyber Pass into India) ...

* In 1910 France passed a Naval Law stipulating 28 dreadnaughts by 1920. Somehow no mass hysteria of the British press over this, showing how aligned it was to the Asquith Cabinet's germanophobia/wheedling of funds for fleet through Evul! Willie Will Eat Your Dog propaganda.

 

[WolfBear]

Right, for example, Russian Ambassador Hartwig in Belgrade encouraging maximum aggressiveness by the Serbs - if that man's cardiovascular system holds out another three years.

Why exactly would it?