If Austria defeated Serbia in 1914 what did it want to deprive Serbia of, and what did Russia think it wanted to take?

[raharris1973]

Russia in OTL obviously felt like it had to come to Serbia's rescue in 1914.

It figured Austria would win if Serbia stood alone, Austria would do bad things to Serbia, Russia's reputation would take a hit, and domestic opinion would be outraged.

What did the Austrians want and plan to do with Serbia, and what did the Russians think the Austrians planned to do?

Run their own investigation and punishments all over the country?

Did the Austrians plan regime change of the dynasty? Karageorgovic back to Obrenovic (if they could find any of the latter)

Take away territory from Serbia?

If taking territory, anything more than the amount of territory that Austria say had occupied prior to 1908, the Sanjak of Novi Pazar

That territory is the small blue appendix thingy sticking out from Bosnia that Austria occupied before 1908, but gave up when it annexed Bosnia (returning it to Turkey), that Serbia and Montenegro partitioned during the 1912 Balkan War.

If depriving Serbia of territory, was anyone thinking Serbia would be deprived of territory equal or greater to what it had just won to its south in the Balkan Wars in 1912-1913? (these lands are southwest of a thick red line and have hashmarks on them)

If so, considering Serbia had lived as a viable state without that much land before 1912, would Austria rolling Serbia back to its 1911-1912 size in a small war in 1914 have been that big a deal for Serbia? And especially for Russia?

Was it worth a world war?

Or did the Austrians want to annex and incorporate all of Serbia?

Or did they want to genocide the Serbians?

Or did the Russians have no idea how much or how little the Austrians wanted/planned to do?

 

[WolfBear]

TBH, if I was the Russian Tsar, I'd have given the Austro-Hungarians this deal:

1. No territorial losses of pre-1911 Serbian territory.
2. No loss of Serbian independence or outright A-H annexation of Serbia (or Montenegro, for that matter).
3. No human rights violations or atrocities in any A-H occupation of Serbia.
4. Having any A-H occupation of Serbia be temporary with a clearly defined timetable.

I'd also eagerly invite any pro-Russian Serbian refugees to permanently settle in my country, of course. This would include the June 1914 Serbian royal family if they are overthrown by Austria-Hungary.

Such a deal would have allowed Russia to save face while subsequently avoiding the loss of the lives of two million young Russian men in WWI and everything else that followed it, such as Communism, the Russian Civil War, Nazism/World War II, et cetera.

 

[WolfBear]

For territories, I was thinking:

-Serbia keeps all of its pre-1911 territories.
-Bulgaria conquers Macedonia.
-Albania gets Kosovo.
-Austria-Hungary could get the Sanjak of Novi Pazar, I suppose. This would give Austria-Hungary a direct land connection to Albania and subsequently to both Bulgaria and Greece while ensuring that Serbo-Montenegrin unification could never, ever occur in the future without prior Austro-Hungarian consent.