If there's no WWI in 1914 and Russia eventually ends its alliance with France in favor of one with Germany, can an alt-WWI still eventually occur?

W

WolfBear

Well-known member
If there's no WWI in 1914 and Russia eventually ends its alliance with France in favor of one with Germany, can an alt-WWI still eventually realistically occur? FWIW, here is what I was thinking here:

-Franz Ferdinand lives; thus there is no World War I in 1914.
-Russia still eventually experiences a revolution (albeit not a Bolshevik one) and a subsequent civil war in which Germany agrees to help the reactionaries in exchange for them ending the Franco-Russian alliance and instead allying with Germany and Austria-Hungary, thus recreating the Three Emperors' League.
-The loss of Russia as an ally causes France to move even closer to Britain, especially considering that Germany no longer needs Britain now that it has Russia.
-Britain remains allied with Japan in the Far East.
-Italy and Romania nominally remain allied with Germany but wait and see which way the wind will blow in any future European war before entering it on anyone's side.

Is there any realistic way that an alt-WWI can eventually break out in this TL? The likely points of tension here would, of course, be the Ottoman Empire, Persia, Afghanistan, and the Far East. But can any of these points of tension actually realistically result in an alt-WWI in this TL? Or is the balance of forces simply too uneven here in favor of the Three Emperors' League? Because I would think that the US would be on the Anglo-Franco-Japanese side in this war much more than on the side of the Three Emperors' League, even if the US will not actually directly enter this war for a while, if ever.

Anyway, what do you think?
 
I suppose if Russia is favored over Austria by Germany the Russo-German alliance can pick apart the Habsburg empire in 1917.
 
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sillygoose said:
I suppose if Austria is favored over Russia by Germany the Russo-German alliance can pick apart the Habsburg empire in 1917.
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You mean if Russia is favored over Austria by Germany, no? And Yes, that actually would make sense if the German Protestant Junker elite won't be anywhere near as hostile towards incorporating a lot of Catholics into the German Reich in 1917 as was the case in the late 19th century. Though some disputes will still remain: For instance, how much A-H land does Romania get? Does Hungary keep Subcarpathian Ruthenia or does Russia get it? Does Serbia get Bosnia and Dalmatia or does it also get any other territories? Does Italy only get Trentino or does it also get Trieste and Istria and perhaps even Fiume and/or South Tyrol? Et cetera.
 
WolfBear said:
You mean if Russia is favored over Austria by Germany, no? And Yes, that actually would make sense if the German Protestant Junker elite won't be anywhere near as hostile towards incorporating a lot of Catholics into the German Reich in 1917 as was the case in the late 19th century. Though some disputes will still remain: For instance, how much A-H land does Romania get? Does Hungary keep Subcarpathian Ruthenia or does Russia get it? Does Serbia get Bosnia and Dalmatia or does it also get any other territories? Does Italy only get Trentino or does it also get Trieste and Istria and perhaps even Fiume and/or South Tyrol? Et cetera.
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Yes, was typing too quickly and didn't proof read.
The big issue is the economic zone of the Balkans was coveted by both Germany and Russia, so that was OTL's big sticking point, plus who was going to be the senior partner in the alliance as well as elements of the Russian ruling class not keen on Germany in general.
 
sillygoose said:
as well as elements of the Russian ruling class not keen on Germany in general.
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Why? They had German blood, after all!

As for the Balkans, do an east-west split: Germany gets Serbia, Albania, and Greece in its sphere of influence while Russia get Bulgaria and Romania. But of course Russia would still eventually want Constantinople, which I'm unsure that Germany would ever actually be willing to give.
 
BTW, @sillygoose, if you don't mind, can you please respond to this thread of mine?


I just want to see a more general understanding of what the odds of an alt-WWI breaking out here considering that no one other than myself has actually voted in this poll.

For instance, here's a TL where Franz Ferdinand lives but where war does NOT break out over Russia's aggressive moves on the Ottoman Empire in the late 1910s:

Artifice of Eternity: Franz Ferdinand Forever

Author's Notes: I have long been a fan of alternate history and more recently this website. As the 100th anniversary of World War I approached, I became obsessed with what could have been if Franz Ferdinand had not been assassinated. I've read up on the subject, including Lebow's recent book and...
www.alternatehistory.com

1916
  • Bitlis, Ottoman Empire: Major Hoff, inspector for Armenian affairs, visits the city to learn about latest alleged persecution of Armenians. During a heated confrontation between local Armenians and Ottoman officials, Hoff is caught in a riot and killed. Clashes between Armenians and Muslims spread. News spreads quickly to the West. Russia takes advantage by issuing ultimatum to Ottomans demanding broad access to Ottoman lands to defend rights of Christians.
  • During “February crisis”, furious diplomacy amongst all players - Ottomans, Russians, Germans, British. Finally, Ottomans reject Russian ultimatum, British fail to dissuade Russian martial ambitions, and Russia mobilizes. After fevered, contentious discussions of potential war, Germans decide not to back Ottomans militarily. Russo-Turkish War of 1916, also known as Turkish Intervention, begins.

  • War progresses in fits and starts. Ottomans defend furiously, but Russians with support of Andranik’s Armenian legions push into Eastern Anatolia. CUP Triumvirate responds with harsh measures against Dashnak and Armenian intellectuals still in Constantinople. Bulgarians enter war against Ottomans in exchange for promise of regaining Odrin (aka Edirne). Greece enters war to take Smyrna. British Mediterranean Fleet observes from Cyprus but does not intervene. Russians push towards Constantinople. Russian Dobrynya Nikitich bombers pound Turkish formations.
  • Great Versöhnung (Rapprochement) between British and Germans as war progresses.
  • Ottoman CUP government descends into infighting as situation on the fronts worsens. British and Germans lead Great Power effort to intervene and stabilize the quickly disintegrating Sick Man. First German, then British forces land in Gallipoli and meet in Constantinople before Russian forces arrive. French enter the Levant. Indian Army moves into Mesopotamia. Arab lands begin revolting against Ottoman power with British and German encouragement.

  • Europe: 1916 Summer Olympics still held in Berlin, Germany in June-July 1916.
  • USA: Theodore Roosevelt maneuvers reconciliation with Republican Party leadership and pushes for nomination as he hammers Wilson for weakness in response to Turkish War and American economic slowdown. TR wins Presidential Election of 1916 as Progressive-Republican.

1917
  • Franz Joseph of Austria-Hungary dies in January.
  • Turkish Intervention ends soon after with the flight of Sultan Mehmed V to Bursa and the collapse of the institutions of the 718-year old Ottoman Empire. Great Power conference held in Vienna at insistence of new emperor Franz Ferdinand.

Conference of Vienna: Dubbed by some the “Second Congress of Vienna”, the Great Powers of Europe (Austria-Hungary, France, Germany, Italy, Russia, United Kingdom) are joined by the United States (bipartisan group led by Elihu Root) and the Empire of Japan to determine the future of the Near East. Representatives from the former Ottoman Empire are dominated by Armenians and Greeks. Japanese attend at urging of British, however play little to no role, except for pushing for Great Power recognition of its special position in Manchuria. Americans push for limited self-government for former Ottoman subjects as well as path towards independence, but have limited influence in preventing colonization of the area.

Treaty of Vienna: Former Ottoman lands split into European spheres of influence
  • Kingdom of Armenia: proclaimed under protection of Russian Empire; consists of former Ottoman vilayets of Erzerum, Van, Bitlis, portions of Diyarbakir (including Sivan), Mamuret al-Aziz (including Harput), and smaller bits of Sivas and Trebizond vilayets
  • Russian Empire: annexes remainder of Trebizond, Kastamon and Izmid vilayets, thus controlling entire Black Sea coast of Anatolia; subsequently renames Izmid (orginally Nikomedia) to Nikolayeslav and bases expanded Black Sea Fleet there; shares control of former Mosul vilayet - renamed Commission of Mosul - with Britain and Germany
  • Bulgaria: gains Odrin and some surrounding territory
  • British Empire: gains Basra and Baghdad vilayets as Colony of Mesopotamia; shares control of former Mosul Commission with Germany and Russia; retains protectorates on Arabian peninsula, gains protectorate over Kingdom of Nejd; de facto control over Egypt confirmed de jure
  • German Empire: combines Aleppo vilayet, eastern Adana vilayet (including city of Adana), southern portion of Mamuret al-Aziz and most of Diyarbakir vilayets into Colony of German Cilicia; shares control of Mosul Commission with Britain and Russia; gains protectorate over Kingdom of Hejaz
  • Greece: annexes city of Smyrna and northern portion of Smyrna vilayet
  • Italy: combines southern portion of Smyrna vilayet (with city of Mughla), coastal portion of Konya and western Adana vilayets into new Colony of Lycia
  • Austria-Hungary: due to insistence of new emperor, granted Colony of Tripoli, including former northern portion of Beirut vilayet, from Latakia to Tripoli, northern portion of Syria vilayet including cities of Hamah and Homs as well as most of Sanjak of Zor, including city of Deir-al-Zor
  • France: gains Lebanon vilayet and southern portion of Beirut vilayet as well as central Syria vilayet, including Damascus, as Colony of the French Levant
  • Turkish Sultanate: Angora, most of Sivas, northwestern portion of Mamuret al-Aziz, all of Bursa except for coast, and majority of Konya vilayets reformed with Sultan resident in Bursa but most government functions moved to city of Konya; state technically under international supervision, but chiefly directed by German and British advisors
  • Commission of Palestine: Jerusalem and southern Syria vilayet turned into international zone governed by mix of Great Power commissioners and local confessional leaders
  • Free City of Constantinople and Commission of the Straits: Constantinople to be governed similar to Palestine with mix of international commissioners and ethno-religious groups including Turks, Greeks, Armenians and Jews; territory includes all former Ottoman lands bordering the Straits, except for Russian-held Nikolayeslav (former Izmid)
  • Berlin-Baghdad railway: much of railroad damaged during the war, but agreement is made to restore it and internationalize the railway; plans are made to extend railway to Basra and Kuwait
  • Persia: Russian and British spheres of influence reconfirmed

Though the Turkish War is over, the turmoil is not. Further revolutions and echoes of the past war promise to haunt both sides in the coming years…..
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WolfBear said:
Why? They had German blood, after all!

As for the Balkans, do an east-west split: Germany gets Serbia, Albania, and Greece in its sphere of influence while Russia get Bulgaria and Romania. But of course Russia would still eventually want Constantinople, which I'm unsure that Germany would ever actually be willing to give.
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AFAIK the majority of the Russian nobility and military/political leadership class were ethnic Russian. Elements had Baltic German heritage, but the large majority did not.

Problem is with the split up of the Balkans and Russia's ambitions on not just Turkey, but also all the Slavs in the Balkans means there are irreconcilable differences in strategic goals. Russia was too greedy and wanted to be the world hyperpower by not only uniting all Slavs under their rule, but also dominate Turkey/the Ottomans empire and the Straits as well as control the holy city of Constantinople/Istanbul. That's why the historical 3 emperors league fell apart and why the Nicky-Willy accord in 1905 was quashed by the Duma/Russian ruling class. The Entente had the ultimate goal of breaking up Germanic Central Europe and splitting it up between the western Entente and Russian dominated Eastern Europe. The weak Central Europe was to be the buffer zone between east and west. Effectively what happened after WW2, but had been intended in WW1. See the Entente war goals laid out in 1916 (there some earlier, but the last plan in 1916 including the Russians).



WolfBear said:
BTW, @sillygoose, if you don't mind, can you please respond to this thread of mine?


I just want to see a more general understanding of what the odds of an alt-WWI breaking out here considering that no one other than myself has actually voted in this poll.

For instance, here's a TL where Franz Ferdinand lives but where war does NOT break out over Russia's aggressive moves on the Ottoman Empire in the late 1910s:

Artifice of Eternity: Franz Ferdinand Forever

Author's Notes: I have long been a fan of alternate history and more recently this website. As the 100th anniversary of World War I approached, I became obsessed with what could have been if Franz Ferdinand had not been assassinated. I've read up on the subject, including Lebow's recent book and...
www.alternatehistory.com
Click to expand...
I'll take a look
 
sillygoose said:
AFAIK the majority of the Russian nobility and military/political leadership class were ethnic Russian. Elements had Baltic German heritage, but the large majority did not.

Problem is with the split up of the Balkans and Russia's ambitions on not just Turkey, but also all the Slavs in the Balkans means there are irreconcilable differences in strategic goals. Russia was too greedy and wanted to be the world hyperpower by not only uniting all Slavs under their rule, but also dominate Turkey/the Ottomans empire and the Straits as well as control the holy city of Constantinople/Istanbul. That's why the historical 3 emperors league fell apart and why the Nicky-Willy accord in 1905 was quashed by the Duma/Russian ruling class. The Entente had the ultimate goal of breaking up Germanic Central Europe and splitting it up between the western Entente and Russian dominated Eastern Europe. The weak Central Europe was to be the buffer zone between east and west. Effectively what happened after WW2, but had been intended in WW1. See the Entente war goals laid out in 1916 (there some earlier, but the last plan in 1916 including the Russians).




I'll take a look
Click to expand...


Thanks for your analysis here, Goose. BTW, what do you think about the TL in my post right above here? I suspect that if Russia initiates an Ottoman partition in the late 1910s then this, along with the completion of its Great Military Program around the same time, would mean that Britain would definitely move much closer towards both Germany and A-H. This would, of course, also make an alt-WWI much less likely to ever occur unless A-H will ever implode and Russia will decide to intervene there afterwards since that's the only reasonable casus belli that I could see for a huge war in this TL after a hypothetical Ottoman collapse, break-up, and partition.
 
WolfBear said:
Thanks for your analysis here, Goose. BTW, what do you think about the TL in my post right above here? I suspect that if Russia initiates an Ottoman partition in the late 1910s then this, along with the completion of its Great Military Program around the same time, would mean that Britain would definitely move much closer towards both Germany and A-H. This would, of course, also make an alt-WWI much less likely to ever occur unless A-H will ever implode and Russia will decide to intervene there afterwards since that's the only reasonable casus belli that I could see for a huge war in this TL after a hypothetical Ottoman collapse, break-up, and partition.
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I'm not sure Britain would switch sides; they also wanted to break up the Ottomans and thought the Russians wouldn't get past Central Europe; Germany was their main fear and were plenty happy with an autocratic Russia breaking up Germany.
 
sillygoose said:
I'm not sure Britain would switch sides; they also wanted to break up the Ottomans and thought the Russians wouldn't get past Central Europe; Germany was their main fear and were plenty happy with an autocratic Russia breaking up Germany.
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So balance-of-power considerations for the Brits would have become less relevant?
 
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