raharris1973
Well-known member
Is an end to the war in Europe (or imminent end) by Nov '44 enough to have Dewey beat FDR?
I am making a parallel here to how the end of the war in Europe seemed to be enough to make Churchill, and the Conservatives, "dispensable" to British voters, and how they replaced him with Labour and Attlee. British voters did so even though the Pacific war was not over and looked set to continue possibly another two years.
A large part of the legitimacy of Roosevelt's extra terms was the contingencies of wartime, and his margin of '44 was his lowest, and '40 had been lower than '36.
How to end the European War early shouldn't be too hard, especially with some pre-1944 PoDs. Causes could include D-Day going off in May, favorable PoDs on the Soviet front, D-Day going off (successfully) in 1943 [I give this as an example, I *don't* care to debate it now], the Battle of the Atlantic going better, the US getting into the war months earlier over Atlantic clashes, etc.
What if *both* the European and Japanese wars were ended, or imminently ending by November 1944? Would *that* greatly increase the odds of Dewey defeating FDR? Perhaps more than VE-Day alone, because of the extra centrality of the Pacific War to the US?
Getting the Pacific War to end that early is indeed a harder a lift, but is still plausible using the PoDs I suggested above, plus more aggressive ones like an earlier atomic bomb, or a combination of more prepared USA, UK, or USSR putting pressure on Japan on all fronts, and so on.
Your thought?
I am making a parallel here to how the end of the war in Europe seemed to be enough to make Churchill, and the Conservatives, "dispensable" to British voters, and how they replaced him with Labour and Attlee. British voters did so even though the Pacific war was not over and looked set to continue possibly another two years.
A large part of the legitimacy of Roosevelt's extra terms was the contingencies of wartime, and his margin of '44 was his lowest, and '40 had been lower than '36.
How to end the European War early shouldn't be too hard, especially with some pre-1944 PoDs. Causes could include D-Day going off in May, favorable PoDs on the Soviet front, D-Day going off (successfully) in 1943 [I give this as an example, I *don't* care to debate it now], the Battle of the Atlantic going better, the US getting into the war months earlier over Atlantic clashes, etc.
What if *both* the European and Japanese wars were ended, or imminently ending by November 1944? Would *that* greatly increase the odds of Dewey defeating FDR? Perhaps more than VE-Day alone, because of the extra centrality of the Pacific War to the US?
Getting the Pacific War to end that early is indeed a harder a lift, but is still plausible using the PoDs I suggested above, plus more aggressive ones like an earlier atomic bomb, or a combination of more prepared USA, UK, or USSR putting pressure on Japan on all fronts, and so on.
Your thought?