Oda Nobunaga survives

PsihoKekec

Swashbuckling Accountant
It is the June 21st 1582, traitors have surrounded the temple where Oda Nobunaga went for tea ceremony, but one of his retainers spots a possible gap in the encirclement, so Nobunaga makes a quick decision, orders his loyal page to set fire to the temple and sets for the gap in the lines alone. Managing to steal a horse he succeeds in joininf his sons (the eldest is still killed) and rallies his generals to crush his would-be assassin.

Now, with his designated successor dead, his second in line is not exactly a great leader and third in line is rather to quick to take action, not to mention the two very competent and very ambitious daimyos, how would the unification of Japan proceed?
 

ATP

Well-known member
It is the June 21st 1582, traitors have surrounded the temple where Oda Nobunaga went for tea ceremony, but one of his retainers spots a possible gap in the encirclement, so Nobunaga makes a quick decision, orders his loyal page to set fire to the temple and sets for the gap in the lines alone. Managing to steal a horse he succeeds in joininf his sons (the eldest is still killed) and rallies his generals to crush his would-be assassin.

Now, with his designated successor dead, his second in line is not exactly a great leader and third in line is rather to quick to take action, not to mention the two very competent and very ambitious daimyos, how would the unification of Japan proceed?

He would unite Japan and live another 30 years.Later - cyvil war,Tokugawa probably win this time,too.
So,nothing change?
 

Chiron

Well-known member
It is the June 21st 1582, traitors have surrounded the temple where Oda Nobunaga went for tea ceremony, but one of his retainers spots a possible gap in the encirclement, so Nobunaga makes a quick decision, orders his loyal page to set fire to the temple and sets for the gap in the lines alone. Managing to steal a horse he succeeds in joininf his sons (the eldest is still killed) and rallies his generals to crush his would-be assassin.

Now, with his designated successor dead, his second in line is not exactly a great leader and third in line is rather to quick to take action, not to mention the two very competent and very ambitious daimyos, how would the unification of Japan proceed?

Oda continues his plans but to counter-balance Hideyoshi, he will likely allow Chosokabe to keep Shikoku, and not do a sword hunt.

But other than that, unless his sons can rise to the occasion, he is basically relying on Hideyoshi to croak before he does, Tokugawa under Oda never gains the lands he does under Hideyoshi and remains a minor daimyo.
 

S'task

Renegade Philosopher
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
He would unite Japan and live another 30 years.Later - cyvil war,Tokugawa probably win this time,too.
So,nothing change?
No... this is a massive and dramatic change.

You see, unlike Hideyoshi and Tokugawa, Oda was much more hostile to the Buddists and actively welcomed and ENCOURAGED a newly arrived religion from foreign traders in his and others lands. If he doesn't die at Honouji and Hideyoshi doesn't end up with rule, this means a good 30 more or so years of unfettered Christian proselytizing in Japan as well as increased trade and communication with the Portugese. If, as others note, Tokugawa remains minor, it also means that the more traditional eastern Daimyo that Tokugawa allied with to get power also likely remain out of power. This also means it is unlikely to see the Imjin War, which Hideyoshi used to distract the daimyo from his politicking

This means that Japan doesn't enter its centuries of isolation like it did under the Tokugawa Bakufu, potentially modernizing two centuries earlier under the Oda and beginning its own colonization efforts in the Pacific region. It also likely means a much more expansive Christianity in Japan, as while Oda is unlikely to pursue the persecutions that Hideyoshi and Tokugawa did.

A Christianized Japan that is engaging with the world in the late 16th and early 17th centuries has huge ramifications for the development of the world going forward and utterly changes the political calculus of the region going forward.
 

Chiron

Well-known member
No... this is a massive and dramatic change.

You see, unlike Hideyoshi and Tokugawa, Oda was much more hostile to the Buddists and actively welcomed and ENCOURAGED a newly arrived religion from foreign traders in his and others lands. If he doesn't die at Honouji and Hideyoshi doesn't end up with rule, this means a good 30 more or so years of unfettered Christian proselytizing in Japan as well as increased trade and communication with the Portugese. If, as others note, Tokugawa remains minor, it also means that the more traditional eastern Daimyo that Tokugawa allied with to get power also likely remain out of power. This also means it is unlikely to see the Imjin War, which Hideyoshi used to distract the daimyo from his politicking

This means that Japan doesn't enter its centuries of isolation like it did under the Tokugawa Bakufu, potentially modernizing two centuries earlier under the Oda and beginning its own colonization efforts in the Pacific region. It also likely means a much more expansive Christianity in Japan, as while Oda is unlikely to pursue the persecutions that Hideyoshi and Tokugawa did.

A Christianized Japan that is engaging with the world in the late 16th and early 17th centuries has huge ramifications for the development of the world going forward and utterly changes the political calculus of the region going forward.

Depends on whether Oda entertains outward expansion and to what extent. If he feels that letting Hideyoshi invade Korea is a convenient way to get rid of him, he may do it, then tell the Koreans peace, love, and happiness, wink wink, nod nod, and leave Hideyoshi hanging. Otherwise, I see him more interested in Hokkaido, the Ryukus, and Central Pacific.

The real question though is what happens when he dies? Will his sons be able to rise to the occasion or does the country descend into another civil war?

If so, Tokugawa is unlikely to come out of it as victor, he would most likely get plowed under by another lord.
 

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
I think an invasion of Korea was very likely regardless of whether the Oda or Toyotomi unify Japan. There were an absolute crapton of restless, veteran soldiers (both samurai and commoners) running around after the hundred years of endemic warfare that was the Sengoku Period, and it makes sense to give them an external enemy to fight instead of letting them fester at home and potentially think about turning on their new overlord because he doesn't give them the exact fief they want or whatever. I'd imagine Korea is a more attractive target for conquest & settlement than cold, remote Hokkaido as well. That said, I'm not sure if Nobunaga would be as insanely ambitious as Hideyoshi, who infamously wanted to use Korea as a platform from which to conquer China & India - Hideyoshi may also have been motivated to aim so high by a need to further prove himself due to his peasant background, which obviously wouldn't have been a problem for the proudly Taira-blooded Nobunaga.

I would agree though that Nobunaga coming out on top overall gives Christianity a big boost in Japan. As has been said, he was fiercely hostile toward Buddhism but very welcoming of the 'Nanban' and their ways, even if it was probably more-so because he appreciated the firepower they could sell to him rather than any genuine spiritual interest in the Gospel (a Portuguese missionary who met him, Luis Frois, pretty much described him as an atheist). At the time of Nobunaga's death he wasn't yet in control of far western & eastern Japan: in the former area the Mori clan of western Honshu and Shimazu of southern Kyushu were still holding out, but both conveniently had an enemy in the Otomo clan of northern Kyushu, who were among the highest-profile Catholic converts in Japan and historically aided Hideyoshi in subduing their rivals.

If Nobunaga, famous for his much more brutish and bloody-minded temperament compared to the compromising Hideyoshi, ends up destroying those rival clans as he did to many others that crossed him previously and heavily favoring the pro-European Otomo as his agents in far western Japan, then coupled with his tolerance of Christianity I could imagine Kyushu at least becoming a Catholic-majority bastion in the medium term. It's more difficult to imagine Christianity becoming the majority religion in all of Japan, especially in the much more traditional-minded center and east of the country, but I think a case could be made for it eventually dominating the western provinces and becoming as much of an influence on Japanese culture overall as Buddhism.

Also, if Nobunaga lives at least as long as Hideyoshi, he will have another heir of age - his grandson Hidenobu, son of his oldest son who dies at Honno-ji, who will be 18 in 1598 and was historically the Toyotomi's favored candidate to head the Oda clan. At least none of his potential heirs will be underage, unlike Hideyoshi's. But yes, it does seem quite plausible or even likely that the Oda Shogunate would tear itself apart in a dynastic civil war between Hidenobu and his uncles Nobukatsu & Nobutaka once their founding patriarch croaks (this time from natural causes). Assuming the Oda don't fatally weaken themselves in this episode of bloodletting and get overthrown by some other daimyo, I do think that Japan would remain open, tolerant of Christians and inclined toward foreign trade & expansion. Maybe an Oda Shogun will even make a real go at conquering China if & when the Ming should collapse as they did historically.
 

ATP

Well-known member
No... this is a massive and dramatic change.

You see, unlike Hideyoshi and Tokugawa, Oda was much more hostile to the Buddists and actively welcomed and ENCOURAGED a newly arrived religion from foreign traders in his and others lands. If he doesn't die at Honouji and Hideyoshi doesn't end up with rule, this means a good 30 more or so years of unfettered Christian proselytizing in Japan as well as increased trade and communication with the Portugese. If, as others note, Tokugawa remains minor, it also means that the more traditional eastern Daimyo that Tokugawa allied with to get power also likely remain out of power. This also means it is unlikely to see the Imjin War, which Hideyoshi used to distract the daimyo from his politicking

This means that Japan doesn't enter its centuries of isolation like it did under the Tokugawa Bakufu, potentially modernizing two centuries earlier under the Oda and beginning its own colonization efforts in the Pacific region. It also likely means a much more expansive Christianity in Japan, as while Oda is unlikely to pursue the persecutions that Hideyoshi and Tokugawa did.

A Christianized Japan that is engaging with the world in the late 16th and early 17th centuries has huge ramifications for the development of the world going forward and utterly changes the political calculus of the region going forward.

You are right,and i was wrong.30 years of catholics getting more converts mean Japan friendly to ,at least,catholics powers.
And,as @Circle of Willis said,Oda grandson would be rule then.
What could we have ?
Japan would get Korea,but nothing more there.But - they would become Pacyfic power,which mean taking pacyfic shore of North America and Australia later.
Which mean - no USA as world superpower.And,at least,partially catholic Japan.Jesuits made chineese rite for Ming dynasty/never used/,now they could do the same for Japan.
 

S'task

Renegade Philosopher
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
You are right,and i was wrong.30 years of catholics getting more converts mean Japan friendly to ,at least,catholics powers.
And,as @Circle of Willis said,Oda grandson would be rule then.
What could we have ?
Japan would get Korea,but nothing more there.But - they would become Pacyfic power,which mean taking pacyfic shore of North America and Australia later.
Which mean - no USA as world superpower.And,at least,partially catholic Japan.Jesuits made chineese rite for Ming dynasty/never used/,now they could do the same for Japan.
They might, MIGHT discover Australia and be able to colonize it, but there's no way in hell Japan will be able to colonize the west coast of N. America prior to the 19th century. They lack the knowledge and infrastructure to make such a long voyage and to support colonies that far away. And this is not just "they're late to the party" type thing, nobody really had the ability to pull that level of distance off until the 19th century even in Europe. You might want to point to Britain and Australia, but realistically the British colonization of Australia was built off the conquest of India and the exploration of Indonesia and the south Pacific, which made logistics and distance much shorter in comparison.

You have to understand, crossing the Pacific is a MASSIVE feat of navigation and logistics. It wasn't until the late 19th / early 20th century where you could reliably make trans-Pacific voyages. The Pacific is nearly twice as wide as the Atlantic. Add on the logistics of setting up colonies, which is also quite difficult and prone to failure, and they've got no way to really colonize the Americas.
 

Circle of Willis

Well-known member
IIRC Japan might be able to reach Alaska if they sail northeastward, thanks to the Kuroshio and Aleutian currents. But yes, it shouldn't be possible for them to drive straight eastward onto the nice, warm parts of the North American western seaboard - I've heard that Hawaii was insulated from European contact for quite a bit longer than, say, the Philippines because there were no winds/currents that could've easily taken explorers there, all those favorable currents went around them instead (a big problem in the Age of Sail), and that would've screwed with a Japanese attempt to chart a course from Honshu to (for example) northern California as well.

I don't think it would be feasible for Japan to attempt mass sea travel and colonization by way of the Spanish trade routes from Manila to Acapulco (way too far south unless they conquer the Philippines first, and in that case Spain will definitely have no interest in helping them and quite a bit in opposing them instead), so if the Oda Shogunate is to try colonizing any part of the American west coast they'd probably have to start at Alaska and then push south. Which seems...tough, I'm sure the Russians had good reason not to try it (beyond like one fort in California) when they colonized Alaska IOTL.
 

Skallagrim

Well-known member
(...) if the Oda Shogunate is to try colonizing any part of the American west coast they'd probably have to start at Alaska and then push south. Which seems...tough, I'm sure the Russians had good reason not to try it (beyond like one fort in California) when they colonized Alaska IOTL.
The logic is sound, and odds are you're right, but we might note that Russia had its base of power and population in the far, far Western part of the country -- all the way over in European Russia. They had to cross the breadth of Eurasia first, and then cross the sea, too. Japan is already off the Eastern end of Eurasia, so it's at least a bit less of an insane venture for them.

Still unlikely to amount to anything other than maybe a few outposts, just to be clear. But hypothetically, you could write up a scenario where a Japanese ruler gets really interested in putting some settlers over there on those lands-across-the-sea. Is it going to be economically worth it? I think not. But that hasn't always stopped colonial ventures in OTL. An ATL Japan could, hypothetically, put a series of outposts along the Kurils/Kamchatka/Aleutians/Alaska line, like a string leading to a more robust colony in the region that we call the Pacific North-West in OTL. One might think of it as a Japanese equivalent to Quebec, right up to some Japanese wit dismissing the whole thing as "a few acres of forest inhabited by savages".
 

S'task

Renegade Philosopher
Administrator
Staff Member
Founder
The logic is sound, and odds are you're right, but we might note that Russia had its base of power and population in the far, far Western part of the country -- all the way over in European Russia. They had to cross the breadth of Eurasia first, and then cross the sea, too. Japan is already off the Eastern end of Eurasia, so it's at least a bit less of an insane venture for them.

Still unlikely to amount to anything other than maybe a few outposts, just to be clear. But hypothetically, you could write up a scenario where a Japanese ruler gets really interested in putting some settlers over there on those lands-across-the-sea. Is it going to be economically worth it? I think not. But that hasn't always stopped colonial ventures in OTL. An ATL Japan could, hypothetically, put a series of outposts along the Kurils/Kamchatka/Aleutians/Alaska line, like a string leading to a more robust colony in the region that we call the Pacific North-West in OTL. One might think of it as a Japanese equivalent to Quebec, right up to some Japanese wit dismissing the whole thing as "a few acres of forest inhabited by savages".
Certainly.

But it wouldn't get down to California and likely wouldn't impact the formation of the US.

More likely the US buys Alaska et all from Japan instead of Russia is about the major change thing brings.
 

ATP

Well-known member
Certainly.

But it wouldn't get down to California and likely wouldn't impact the formation of the US.

More likely the US buys Alaska et all from Japan instead of Russia is about the major change thing brings.

Kurosive is good searoad to North America,problem is - they would have great difficulties with coming back.
But - few ships even in our OTL accidentally get to North America.
Japan would not knew about it till at least 1700,but once they knew,they would use that to send settlers.There would always be people seeking free land and second sons who need castle elsywhere.
So,till ,let say 1850,pacyfic shore should belong to Japan.USA in that times could do little to change that.
What later? they would be not white,many would be catholics - WASP certainly start war later.
 

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