peter Zeihan 2020

[Cherico]

Pretty crazy how in six weeks China proved Peter entirely wrong.

Their demographics remain terminal their economy remains essentially the biggest game of Jenga ever. They have centralized all power into a singular person which is a recipe for disaster and companies are starting to flee because they locked down everything during COVID.

This is before you get to environmental problems water problems and how they have pissed off a lot of their neighbors.

I'm honestly surprised their holding up as well as they are considering all of their shit fundamentals but you can only play a bad hand so long before people call it.

 

[History Learner]

From what I've seen, not reliant on the Zeihan, China is completely fucked no matter what international diplomacy they do. Their demographics, their culture, their military, their economy, everything is broken.

There's basically no real evidence on any of these. Let's look at economics, for example:

• 1994. (UPI) China's high-flying economy finally began to descend in 1994
• 1998. (The Economist) Red Alert: China's economy entering a dangerous period of sluggish growth
• 1999. (Bloomberg) China: What's Going Wrong.
• 2003. (New York Times Opinion) Banking crisis imperils China, Gordon Chang
• 2004. (The Economist) The great fall of China?
• 2004. (New York Times) China Anxiously Seeks a Soft Economic Landing
• 2006. (International Economy) Can China Achieve a Soft Landing?
• 2007. (TIME) Is China's Economy Overheating? Can China avoid a hard landing?
• 2008. (Asia Pacific Journal) The Rising Risk of a Hard Landing in China, Nouriel Roubini
• 2009. (Fortune) China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover.
• 2011: (Reuters) "Meaningful probability" of a China hard landing: Roubini.
• 2011: (Business Insider) A Chinese Hard Landing May Be Closer Than You Think
• 2012: (American Interest) Dismal Economic News from China: A Hard Landing
• 2014. (CNBC) A hard landing in China.
• 2015. (Forbes) Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing.
• 2016. (The Economist) Hard landing looms for China
• 2016. (George Soros) China Hard Landing Is Practically Unavoidable
• 2017. (National Interest) Is China's Economy Going To Crash?
• 2018. (The Guardian) A Chinese recession is inevitable - don't think it won't affect you
• 2019. (Bloomberg) China's Lehman Moment Is Drawing Closer
• 2020. (Wall Street Journal Opinion) China is the real sick man of Asia

Most of this forum's users weren't even alive when people started predicting the decline of China, and yet it's just kept growing. Same deal with stuff like demographics:



Elbridge Colby is literally the lead architect of the 2018 National Defense Strategy for the Trump Administration.

China also has a very good record of starting relationships but a very poor one of maintaining them. When the Belt-and-Road projects started people were doom-saying about how all these countries would flip. Especially with places like Central Asia where they did joint military activities and one of the senior officials had gone to university in China.

Here's an interesting fact: To my knowledge, sans maybe the Philippines, not a single ASEAN critiqued China last Summer during the Taiwan Tensions. They all called for peace and re-affirmed the One China Policy; South Korea didn't even bother to issue a statement. You see the same deal with Central Asia, which has been moving closer to China since Belt and Road.

Now, you have Brazil, France and others moving to drop the Dollar in favor of Yuan denominated trade.

Reality is, all these countries are playing both sides for as much as they can get.

They're not getting anything from the United States, though:

 

[LordsFire]

I see History Learner has emerged for his periodic doom-and-glooming and ritual self-humiliation.

 

[History Learner]

I see History Learner has emerged for his periodic doom-and-glooming and ritual self-humiliation.

I see you’ve ended your sixth or seventh time of claiming I’m not worth your time. I absolutely love how much I get under your skin by always being right when it comes to your arguments.

 

[Cherico]

I see you’ve ended your sixth or seventh time of claiming I’m not worth your time. I absolutely love how much I get under your skin by always being right when it comes to your arguments.

This is one of those things where we will see who is wrong or right over a 20 year period or so.

Personally I think the over concentration of power into one man like Xi is a recipie for desaster as has happened throughout human history, its a rare historical genus who accrues that much power and doesn't fuck it up, I see no signs of that in Xi.

 

[Typhonis]

This is one of those things where we will see who is wrong or right over a 20 year period or so.

Personally I think the over concentration of power into one man like Xi is a recipie for desaster as has happened throughout human history, its a rare historical genus who accrues that much power and doesn't fuck it up, I see no signs of that in Xi.

Xi is human thus he will fuck up at some point and he is not immortal. What happens if he has a bad stroke or fatal heart attack?

 

[LordsFire]

I see you’ve ended your sixth or seventh time of claiming I’m not worth your time. I absolutely love how much I get under your skin by always being right when it comes to your arguments.

You dream about getting under my skin. There's a reason I don't really bother trying to argue with you anymore; you aren't interested in anything that doesn't support your own preconcieved notions. If it works with what you've already decided, it's a 'good source,' if it doesn't, you ignore it.

Even when it's the same article.

You're not 'getting under my skin' at this point, you're just sadly amusing. Like watching a six year old insist that yes, they can use their toy hammer to smash down that brick wall.

 

[Megadeath]

I see you’ve ended your sixth or seventh time of claiming I’m not worth your time. I absolutely love how much I get under your skin by always being right when it comes to your arguments.

Bitch, please. Just try and find someone talking about you when you're not around. I at least manage to get the occasional shout out without interjecting. FriedCfour or whatever he was still comes up from time to time. @Agent23 is a worthy target to hang up for pot-shots every now and then. You're just a jackass arguing the party line of megalomaniac dictatorships. You're a proxy for arguing with the hate-click articles. Neither I nor any of the many people who hate me could give less of a shit what you "think" because you don't bother thinking beyond looking for the next article that supports your repeatedly proven wrong positions.

 

[Cherico]

Xi is human thus he will fuck up at some point and he is not immortal. What happens if he has a bad stroke or fatal heart attack?

Before the purges they just would have picked some one else to rule the country, now I think its a lot harder to have competent leadership because Xi has gotten rid of so many competent people. It might just be the end of the CCP.

It will not be the end of china and I think the china that comes out the other side of the chaos will likely be a lot better then the one we have now.

 

[Typhonis]

Before the purges they just would have picked some one else to rule the country, now I think its a lot harder to have competent leadership because Xi has gotten rid of so many competent people. It might just be the end of the CCP.

It will not be the end of china and I think the china that comes out the other side of the chaos will likely be a lot better then the one we have now.

I think we may see a new Chinese civil war as various players decide they want the Yellow throne.

 

[PeaceMaker 03]

It seems CCP, knows they are screwed, sort of like Russia. They are going for strategy game theory here. Expand as fast as possible, use diplomacy to slow military response, ( because you know it will end badly enough for you), attempt to gain key terrain that will be costly to take from you, and negotiate ( with nuke threats tossed in), in order to hold as much as you can.

Let’s face it right now China is the most imperialistic country on the planet. Something they accused the running dog capitalist of for decades. China is doing a good job of looting all their “resource colonies “ for their benefit. I am waiting for China to find old maps claiming Pakistan as part of China, in order to raise the flag in the Indian Ocean.

 

[Cherico]

Basically europe got lucky

 

[Bacle]

TL;DR: Cali trying to monopolize the Colorado River due to a SCOTUS ruling about senior water rights, other states in the compact considering abandoning the compact and just doing what they want, Cali be damned. This is all coming to a head because the Southwest is in a 'mega-drought' at the same time we are trying to reshore a lot of industry, much of which is looking at the Southwest for relocation and labor options.

Also the usual 'we are growing too much marginal land in the Southwest for the Colorado River and Central Valley of Cali basin to support' issue that's been around for decades.

The water crisis in the Southwest is going to be coming to a head in the near future, and the Colorado River Compact has to either be renegotiated, or abandoned.

 

[Cherico]

Reverse Osmosis techniques have been around for at least 30 years, and the tech has gotten more advanced with time.

Californai is right next to the pacific ocean, the state has with in its means the ability to fix their water issues at any time, so logically the amount of colorado river water it should get is zero, because the eastern side of the compact cant get that water period.

 

[Typhonis]

Reverse Osmosis techniques have been around for at least 30 years, and the tech has gotten more advanced with time.

Californai is right next to the pacific ocean, the state has with in its means the ability to fix their water issues at any time, so logically the amount of colorado river water it should get is zero, because the eastern side of the compact cant get that water period.

What do you mean the Eastern side of the compact can't get the water?

 

[Cherico]

What do you mean the Eastern side of the compact can't get the water?

This is a map, if your next to ocean you can use reverse osmosis to get water from the ocean after treating it. If your not next to ocean the option does not exist.

 

[Typhonis]

This is a map, if your next to ocean you can use reverse osmosis to get water from the ocean after treating it. If your not next to ocean the option does not exist.

What I mean is who is part of the Colorado water compact and why are the people being fucked over.

 

[Cherico]

What I mean is who is part of the Colorado water compact and why are the people being fucked over.

Their being fucked over because the compact was created during the wettest period of the region and because it gave to much water to california.

 

[Bacle]

 

[Cherico]

North america will be fine, europe will have a hard transitionary period, east asia will likely be most affected.