peter Zeihan 2020

[S'task]

Though most of them are inland, and the steel would need to be shipped to the yard, instead of smelted in the same town or region.

This isn't a new problem though. The largest US Navy shipyard has long been Norfolk Virginia, well south and east of all the major US Steel Production around the Great Lakes. So dealing with getting stuff moved to where it's needed is pretty much a solved problem.

 

[Bacle]

This isn't a new problem though. The largest US Navy shipyard has long been Norfolk Virginia, well south and east of all the major US Steel Production around the Great Lakes. So dealing with getting stuff moved to where it's needed is pretty much a solved problem.

While I agree it isn't the problem Marduk seems to have thought it was, I wasn't really thinking about the Great Lakes when I was talking about inland steel mills.

I was more talking about places like the massive steel works in Pueblo and other mills not on major waterways.

 

[S'task]

I was more talking about places like the massive steel works in Pueblo and other mills not on major waterways.

They didn't use waterways to move steel from the Pennsylvania refineries to Norfolk, well, maybe they used some, but the majority went along the railroads. There's massive amounts of railroads heading to Norfolk:

This is freight rail by usage in 2010, note the two spurs heading to "Hampton Roads" along that north-south stretch going to Virginia. Hampton Roads is the actual US Navy shipyards right next to Norfolk Virginia. Likewise there's a lot of smaller spurs off this that go to various coastal ports that could easily handle greater traffic needed for shipbuilding.

Like I said, moving production from the heartland to the coast is pretty much a solved issue.

 

[Bacle]

They didn't use waterways to move steel from the Pennsylvania refineries to Norfolk, well, maybe they used some, but the majority went along the railroads. There's massive amounts of railroads heading to Norfolk:

This is freight rail by usage in 2010, note the two spurs heading to "Hampton Roads" along that north-south stretch going to Virginia. Hampton Roads is the actual US Navy shipyards right next to Norfolk Virginia. Likewise there's a lot of smaller spurs off this that go to various coastal ports that could easily handle greater traffic needed for shipbuilding.

Like I said, moving production from the heartland to the coast is pretty much a solved issue.

Eh, I was thinking more about the rumors they want to reopen Mare Island in the Bay Area, and revamp West Coast shipbuilding.

And yes, I did expect most of the parts smelted inland would be ship to the coast by rail.

 

[Marduk]

While I agree it isn't the problem Marduk seems to have thought it was, I wasn't really thinking about the Great Lakes when I was talking about inland steel mills.

I was more talking about places like the massive steel works in Pueblo and other mills not on major waterways.

This isn't a new problem though. The largest US Navy shipyard has long been Norfolk Virginia, well south and east of all the major US Steel Production around the Great Lakes. So dealing with getting stuff moved to where it's needed is pretty much a solved problem.

Yup. It was done. The main problem is that, well, there's a whole lot less steel production now than then. With labor and regulatory environment being to blame for it.

United States Steel Production

Steel Production in the United States remained unchanged at 6800 Thousand Tonnes in January. This page has Steel Production values for United States.

tradingeconomics.com

USA had almost double the steel production in 1970's, even though it it had 2/3 the population.
Coincidentally, 70's is about the last time US commercial shipbuilding was on meaningful scale:

The Decline of U.S. Shipbuilding ~ Shipbuilding History

 

[f1onagher]

We've talked at length about Zeihan's weakness with domestic politics, but boy howdy this was a doozy. His reasoning was inconsistent even from an anti-Trump perspective. Even the comments section kind of turned on him for this one. My favorite comment being:

I always like to check in with PZ to see what the Intelligence Community wants me to think about a particular subject.

Also credit to him, Zeihan really has quit Twitter. He drops links to his videos with some blurb and that's it. I'm at this point incredibly dedicated to Trump winning just to see what the spin is.

 

[Cherico]

We've talked at length about Zeihan's weakness with domestic politics, but boy howdy this was a doozy. His reasoning was inconsistent even from an anti-Trump perspective. Even the comments section kind of turned on him for this one. My favorite comment being:

I always like to check in with PZ to see what the Intelligence Community wants me to think about a particular subject.

Also credit to him, Zeihan really has quit Twitter. He drops links to his videos with some blurb and that's it. I'm at this point incredibly dedicated to Trump winning just to see what the spin is.

Going to second how weak he is on domestic politics he admits the media is absolute dog shit internationally but is unable to admit their just as bad at their jobs domestically. He also should realize that such a thing is a really really REALLY bad fucking sign. Its called nullification and its a sign of a prelude to strait up civil war.

The last time something like this happened in the US it was to Aberham Lincon which should tell you something. To anyone who understands history this is a really bad fucking sign.

 

[Bacle]

Going to second how weak he is on domestic politics he admits the media is absolute dog shit internationally but is unable to admit their just as bad at their jobs domestically. He also should realize that such a thing is a really really REALLY bad fucking sign. Its called nullification and its a sign of a prelude to strait up civil war.

The last time something like this happened in the US it was to Aberham Lincon which should tell you something. To anyone who understands history this is a really bad fucking sign.

You know I get it, I really do, because of where he lives.

There is a reason it was the CO Supreme Court which was willing to start the push, and why Master Piece Cake Shop happened here.

If it wasn't for being a member of SB and now here, I probably would feel a lot like Zeihan does about Trump, if I just listened to local media.

 

[Emperor Tippy]

My problem with Zeihan's comment on the Trump case is that he doesn't actually taught about the geopolitical ramifications.

If SCOTUS rules against Trump then you will have 40% of the US population openly saying that they are being disenfranchised and that the political system doesn't work for them. You already have multiple Secretaries of State saying that they will boot Biden from their ballots on the grounds that his support for illegal immigration amounts to insurrection.

Seriously, about the one thing that actually could cause large scale political violence in the US is Trump being excluded from the Ballot. Like you think Jan. 6th was bad? That was absolutely nothing compared to what not letting Trump run would get you. What do you think happens when a few hundred thousand armed people march on the Capital? Because that is actually a reasonably plausible outcome of keeping Trump off the ballot in this manner.

And then the other side, what if SCOTUS rules for Trump? To justify that they would have to find one of three things 1) Trump didn't engage in Insurrection, 2) the US President is not an "Officer of the United States" and thus the 14th Amendment doesn't apply to it, or 3) Colorado's courts lacked the authority to invoke the 14th Amendment in this manner.

SCOTUS won't find 3 because they would undercut states running elections and it would have tons of knock on effects.

To find that Trump didn't commit Insurrection SCOTUS would either have to reach a factual finding (really not the role of appeals courts) or say what the proper procedure for making that factual determination is and that the Colorado process fails to meet that procedure. If they establish a proper procedure then that is another can of worms.

Honestly the best out is that the President isn't an Officer of the United States and so the 14th doesn't apply to the Presidency. But that will be seen by a lot of people as SCOTUS finding a way to justify ruling for Trump.

The best outcome for the US is SCOTUS ruling 9-0 that the President isn't an Officer of the United States. Basically anything else and things just go the varying degrees of shit.

But regardless of the reasoning used, if SCOTUS rules for Trump then Trump will absolutely campaign on that and that won't exactly go over well with about 40% of the nation.

---
Want to guarantee that a Republican win's the election though? Have SCOTUS rule against Trump. Every Republican who wants to win will run on a platform of gutting the DOJ and Deep State along with getting the corruption out of politics. Haley and DeSantis would absolutely embrace Trump and go hard against the Democrats and Biden for weaponizing the government against Republicans and you would have 60%+ of the nation supporting them on a platform of basically "Never Again".

Regardless, it would be chaos and a massive distraction for the US vis a vi the rest of the world. With substantial geopolitical implications.

And yet Zeihan touches on none of that. Basically, if it is about domestic US politics then just ignore Zeihan most of the time.

 

[Zachowon]

My problem with Zeihan's comment on the Trump case is that he doesn't actually taught about the geopolitical ramifications.

If SCOTUS rules against Trump then you will have 40% of the US population openly saying that they are being disenfranchised and that the political system doesn't work for them. You already have multiple Secretaries of State saying that they will boot Biden from their ballots on the grounds that his support for illegal immigration amounts to insurrection.

Seriously, about the one thing that actually could cause large scale political violence in the US is Trump being excluded from the Ballot. Like you think Jan. 6th was bad? That was absolutely nothing compared to what not letting Trump run would get you. What do you think happens when a few hundred thousand armed people march on the Capital? Because that is actually a reasonably plausible outcome of keeping Trump off the ballot in this manner.

And then the other side, what if SCOTUS rules for Trump? To justify that they would have to find one of three things 1) Trump didn't engage in Insurrection, 2) the US President is not an "Officer of the United States" and thus the 14th Amendment doesn't apply to it, or 3) Colorado's courts lacked the authority to invoke the 14th Amendment in this manner.

SCOTUS won't find 3 because they would undercut states running elections and it would have tons of knock on effects.

To find that Trump didn't commit Insurrection SCOTUS would either have to reach a factual finding (really not the role of appeals courts) or say what the proper procedure for making that factual determination is and that the Colorado process fails to meet that procedure. If they establish a proper procedure then that is another can of worms.

Honestly the best out is that the President isn't an Officer of the United States and so the 14th doesn't apply to the Presidency. But that will be seen by a lot of people as SCOTUS finding a way to justify ruling for Trump.

The best outcome for the US is SCOTUS ruling 9-0 that the President isn't an Officer of the United States. Basically anything else and things just go the varying degrees of shit.

But regardless of the reasoning used, if SCOTUS rules for Trump then Trump will absolutely campaign on that and that won't exactly go over well with about 40% of the nation.

---
Want to guarantee that a Republican win's the election though? Have SCOTUS rule against Trump. Every Republican who wants to win will run on a platform of gutting the DOJ and Deep State along with getting the corruption out of politics. Haley and DeSantis would absolutely embrace Trump and go hard against the Democrats and Biden for weaponizing the government against Republicans and you would have 60%+ of the nation supporting them on a platform of basically "Never Again".

Regardless, it would be chaos and a massive distraction for the US vis a vi the rest of the world. With substantial geopolitical implications.

And yet Zeihan touches on none of that. Basically, if it is about domestic US politics then just ignore Zeihan most of the time.

That is my opinion about him as well.
Ignore the domestic focus on yhe foreign stuff he talks about

 

[S'task]

3) Colorado's courts lacked the authority to invoke the 14th Amendment in this manner.

I disagree with you that this would run into the issues you think it would. The simple fact is, the Colorado Supreme Court didn't have standing to make this judgement since the charge of insurrection is a Federal charge. The simple fact is Trump has neither been charged with or conviced of Insurrection or any Federal crimes that could trigger the 14th Amendment, and a State Court doesn't have jurisdiction to try Federal crimes. Basically under Article 3 Section 2, the State Court is pretty much explicitly precluded from even TRYING this kind of thing, and in them doing so they overstep their bounds.

If they had knocked off Trump for eligibility under the Colorado Constitution or under Colorado election law, you'd be right, the Supreme Court couldn't really get involved, but the Colorado Court cited the 14th Amendment and made this about the Federal Constitution and Laws, which they have no jurisdiction to rule on.

 

[bullethead]

Every Republican who wants to win will run on a platform of gutting the DOJ and Deep State along with getting the corruption out of politics. Haley and DeSantis would absolutely embrace Trump

That's overly optimistic, given that a lot of the establishment that backs Haley and DeSantis hates Trump and would literally be the Deep State.

I think a lot of Republicans would find a decent amount of success from being anti-Deep State, but aside from Vivek Ramaswamy, I don't think any of the non-Trump candidates are anything but never-Trumper props.

 

[Bacle]

That's overly optimistic, given that a lot of the establishment that backs Haley and DeSantis hates Trump and would literally be the Deep State.

I think a lot of Republicans would find a decent amount of success from being anti-Deep State, but aside from Vivek Ramaswamy, I don't think any of the non-Trump candidates are anything but never-Trumper props.

Tim Scott was legit, but dropped out of the race.

If Trump is knocked off the ballot, or just knocked off (they did it to JFK, they'll try to do it to Trump), it's anyone guess which is actually capable of winning in 2024.

Maybe Ken Buck, since he is not running for his seat again.

 

[History Learner]

That is my opinion about him as well.
Ignore the domestic focus on yhe foreign stuff he talks about

Which part on the foreign stuff? A reminder this is a guy that in 2010 said China would collapse in 3-5 years. Given that's been 14 years ago...

Aside from the United States not going anywhere, I would say we expect the economic collapse of China in this coming decade. We've been talking for awhile about how the economic system there is remarkably unstable and we think that they're going to reach a break point as all of the internal inconsistencies come to light and shatter. By the end of the decade, it'll be pretty obvious to everybody that the China miracle is over. As we enter the decade, people are finally, finally starting to talk about China bubbles. If only their problem was that simple!
​

He also claimed piracy would start once the U.S. Navy withdraws from policing the shipping lanes, but that has happened in spite of the U.S. Navy sending two CBGs to the region. Currently the Red Sea is effectively closed to Western ships, but Chinese and Russians vessels are sailing through just fine, something Zeihan just two weeks said wouldn't happen:



Zeihan consistently misses on all of his predictions to date. Trying to separate his foreign from his domestic takes is a non-starter because they both come from the same poisoned well that is the man himself, with his open bias and double standards.

 

[Cherico]

That's actually a problem with most predictions.

Because people consistently underestimate the power of inertia, and a country the size of China has the resources to fuck up for quite awhile before reality aserts itself.

 

[LordsFire]

That's actually a problem with most predictions.

Because people consistently underestimate the power of inertia, and a country the size of China has the resources to fuck up for quite awhile before reality aserts itself.

It's not just inertia; people need to eat, and want to have a home to live in.

There's a strong motivation to keep working, which keeps some basic economic activity going, even when there are a lot of negative factors.

I've made a prediction or two that was overly pessimistic/optimistic about when governments like the CCP would collapse, but eventually I realized that while people like Zeihan tend to be good at analyzing potential problems, they don't talk much about the constructive forces that keep a nation and economy going.

Until you can get a more comprehensive picture, making predictions is kind of useless.

 

[Agent23]

That's actually a problem with most predictions.

Because people consistently underestimate the power of inertia, and a country the size of China has the resources to fuck up for quite awhile before reality aserts itself.

Oooorrr, most predictions are just crap.
Remember all of the predictions that by 2000 we would be underwater?
Or that we would be living in the world of Soilent Green and all the other population control loonies there were?

If all these specialists in divination can see the future, then why aren't stock market quadrillionares?

And you also have his stupid brainfart about the mass revival of piracy.

You do not need that much to deal with pirates, and convoys and Q-Ships and armed merchantmen are a thing.

Anyways, here is a nice video for you PZ fanboys:

 

[Cherico]

So Xi has been purging the chinese military and replacing it with incompetent yes men which you know is par for the course.

So its now a coinflip on who has worse leadership in that sphere the chinese who have over concentrated all power into one singular person or the US who has boomers who fucked up 20 years in the sandbox and have learned nothing.

 

[LordsFire]

So Xi has been purging the chinese military and replacing it with incompetent yes men which you know is par for the course.

So its now a coinflip on who has worse leadership in that sphere the chinese who have over concentrated all power into one singular person or the US who has boomers who fucked up 20 years in the sandbox and have learned nothing.

The Chinese are looking to be politically and militarily incompetent.

The sandbox failures were demonstrations of how a hyper-competent military still can't win with incompetent politics.

One of these is definitely a better place to be in than the other.

 

[Zachowon]

At least our military can fight