peter Zeihan 2020

[Marduk]

yeah I know russia has never been a maritime power. But my point is that these naval drones really are a game changer. Even the simple crude things the houthis have are able to deny full control of the red sea to the mighty US navy. Imagine of they were spamming the sophisticated drones possessed by the Ukrainians, fully stealthed guided by GPS?

No, they aren't a game changer, you buzzword eater. They are a vibe check for classic perimeter defense for ships. Which some would fail either due to skimping on training and discipline (hint hint Russians), and no one doing much fucky-wucky special operations with speedboats, torpedoes, combat divers and the like over last decades to make everyone think about it. There were a lot of fun books written about those. I recommend you read some before you declare things game changers.
They pretty much did the same kind of attacks relying on the same kinds of gaps in defense, except for obvious technological difference reasons those vessels had to be manned for most of the way at least (unless you ask the Japanese who pioneered the first kind of smart torpedo). Speaking of, if you think RC speedboats and semi-submersibles are bad, the real bullshit will start happening when someone deploys proper smart "cruise torpedoes", considering how deadly normal ones are.

 

[Morphic Tide]

Even the simple crude things the houthis have are able to deny full control of the red sea to the mighty US navy.

Not really, it's more a clusterfuck of patrol timings and the terribly large overhead of defense saturation. They're not getting shit past a carrier group, but it takes a lot to draw one of those off-course.

 

[Marduk]

And as if they wanted to reinforce my point about poor training, Russian Navy just took the idea of live fire exercise to the next level:

Normal navies use stripped down ships up for scrapping for targets, but Russians, they use unsuspecting fishing vessels.
Russian Navy has struck its ancient enemy once again, though they are lucky it wasn't a British trawler.

 

[bullethead]

Peter talks about how population shrinking doesn't help at all, even with climate change:


-The only way there's any chance of any kind of economic growth is if percentage loss is around the globe equally
-18-45 year olds have kids and do the heavy consumption
-45-65 year olds are mature workers that drive private sector
-Old people drive government commitment at high rates
-Advanced world dealing with lots rapid aging and small population of young people
-Subsaharan Africa got similar population gutting during AIDS epidemic, caused 25 years of economic problems
-East Asia gonna get hit hard, the state will degrade in function
-The Orthodox world of Central Europe gonna get hit hard too, wedges of population that will benefit, but cause political instability
-No green upside, because losing the tax base means you can't pay for a transition to green power

 

[Lord Sovereign]

And as if they wanted to reinforce my point about poor training, Russian Navy just took the idea of live fire exercise to the next level:

Normal navies use stripped down ships up for scrapping for targets, but Russians, they use unsuspecting fishing vessels.
Russian Navy has struck its ancient enemy once again, though they are lucky it wasn't a British trawler.

The Russian Navy should go back to basics and focus on being a “Green Water” fleet. It does not have the cash, expertise or competence to be a fully fledged “Blue Water” fleet and a lot of this hopeless larping as a superpower is actually quite detrimental to Russia’s military capabilities.

 

[Cherico]

The Russian Navy should go back to basics and focus on being a “Green Water” fleet. It does not have the cash, expertise or competence to be a fully fledged “Blue Water” fleet and a lot of this hopeless larping as a superpower is actually quite detrimental to Russia’s military capabilities.

Communism not even once.

 

[strunkenwhite]

-No green upside, because losing the tax base means you can't pay for a transition to green power

I suspect he overestimates the "giant sucking sound" of oldsters. If they've been socking away their money into retirement like he assumes in his model, then they're going to be getting it back in income and paying taxes on it. If they retire poor, well, a lot of those aren't going to be exiting the workforce after all.

 

[Lord Sovereign]

Communism not even once.

The only thing Communist Russia got right was its nuclear submarines. And even that is a stretch.

 

[DarthOne]

And as if they wanted to reinforce my point about poor training, Russian Navy just took the idea of live fire exercise to the next level:

Normal navies use stripped down ships up for scrapping for targets, but Russians, they use unsuspecting fishing vessels.
Russian Navy has struck its ancient enemy once again, though they are lucky it wasn't a British trawler.

I got that reference! Second Russian Pacific Squadron, Russo-Japanese war.

 

[bullethead]

Japan has raised its interest rate to 0.1%, after 17 years of not doing interest rate hikes, the 1980s socio-economic policy fucked up purchasing decisions by incentivizing waiting on buying things, 30 years of flat/negative consumption, industrial base has been offloaded to other countries, manufacturing supply chain inflation pushed costs up, no fundamental change to dropping demand in the country, lots of countries have caught up/beaten Japan in population aging, going to be new normal for lots of other countries:

 

[bullethead]

French have well earn rep for being narcissists, kind of annoyed at US involvement regardless of how much we're pouring in, punch hard and hard to hit back on land, aren't impacted by Ukraine war, sending troops is more viable now that Europe needs to change, France isn't going to suffer from declines like the rest of the EU, Europe needs to stand up on its own militarily, want to control Ukraine's resources, get their war tech expertise, better fit for changed EU that's more political, France is moving faster than Germany on decision making and becoming European leader, French troops will repair equipment, cross training, and provide strategic backstop on potential hotspots, probably will happen by end of year:

 

[Lord Sovereign]

As a Briton, it both concerns and pleases me to see France assert herself once again.

"La victoire en chantant" indeed.

 

[Zachowon]

Third Empire?
Fuck it.
I support it

 

[PeaceMaker 03]

France led the way in the Libyan invasion, needed US support less than 48 hours in. Who plans an invasion and runs out of ammo less than 2 days in? Mostly logistics and transport support.

 

[Cherico]

France led the way in the Libyan invasion, needed US support less than 48 hours in. Who plans an invasion and runs out of ammo less than 2 days in? Mostly logistics and transport support.

Logistics is apparently really really hard.

 

[LordsFire]

France led the way in the Libyan invasion, needed US support less than 48 hours in. Who plans an invasion and runs out of ammo less than 2 days in? Mostly logistics and transport support.

It'll be interesting seeing if they actually learned anything.

 

[Blasterbot]

Third Empire?
Fuck it.
I support it

the EU was just France and Germany wrestling in a different arena than normal to see who gets to be on top for the continentals.

 

[DarthOne]

the EU was just France and Germany wrestling in a different arena than normal to see who gets to be on top for the continentals.

Germany and France, like much of the West in general, are pale, twisted and sick shadows of what they once were.

 

[bullethead]

Baby Boomers had rough financial life in their 20s-30s due to huge numbers pushing labor value down, created impression that being in white collar job would avoid competition with boomers, created oversupply of white collar workers and shortage of blue collar workers, need to expand industrial base, 4 year college isn't going to be high demand unless they're big names, Gen Z is smallest American generation, less students for universities to enroll, Peter's usual stereotypes about Zoomers, it'll take years to change curriculum and it'll run right into another generation shift, businesses need to train their own employees, best companies start training at middle school:

 

[Husky_Khan]

Imagine thinking China can find an alternative economic partner then America... Especially in Europe looooool. China gonna freeze to death next year dawg!

Thank you Hamass... 🙏

FAFO!