Poland agrees to an Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance in 1939, on one condition

[WolfBear]

What if Poland would have agreed to an Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance in 1939 on the condition that the Anglo-French would have actually been willing to militarily expel the Soviet Union from all of Poland in the event that the Soviet Union would have refused to voluntarily leave Poland after the end of any war with the Nazis over Poland that ends with an Allied victory? Would the British, French, and Soviets have actually accepted this very reasonable Polish proposal? Basically, it would be meant to ensure that the Soviet Union would quickly leave Poland after liberating it similar to how it quickly left Iran in 1945-1946 in real life.

Thoughts on this?

 

[stevep]

What if Poland would have agreed to an Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance in 1939 on the condition that the Anglo-French would have actually been willing to militarily expel the Soviet Union from all of Poland in the event that the Soviet Union would have refused to voluntarily leave Poland after the end of any war with the Nazis over Poland that ends with an Allied victory? Would the British, French, and Soviets have actually accepted this very reasonable Polish proposal? Basically, it would be meant to ensure that the Soviet Union would quickly leave Poland after liberating it similar to how it quickly left Iran in 1945-1946 in real life.

Thoughts on this?

I think the question would be whether the Poles would trust the western powers to have both the will and capability to expel the Soviets once they were in place? I doubt I would trust Stalin to keep such an agreement if he can get enough forces into Poland and especially if the bulk of the Polish forces are mauled in the combat.

 

[sillygoose]

No way the Allies accept that, nor would the Soviets sign on to such a deal. Besides the Soviets were actually playing the Allies, since they had little to no intention of actually working with them. After the Sudeten crisis Stalin decided to start sending signals to Hitler that he was ready to cut a deal by removing Jews from positions of influence, namely Litvinov, who had been the proponent of a deal with the Allies and was severely politically damaged by what happened to Czechoslovakia.

Maxim Litvinov - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Removing him in May killed the deal, which wasn't really going anywhere at the time due to conflicts between Britain and France as Chamberlain was largely were more interested in the appearance of doing something rather than actually working with the USSR, as his policy was still to try and work with Hitler clandestinely, as he was more anti-communist than anti-nazi and saw that in the event of war the Allies fighting Germany would be a disaster that would only benefit Stalin.

Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact negotiations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[WolfBear]

No way the Allies accept that, nor would the Soviets sign on to such a deal. Besides the Soviets were actually playing the Allies, since they had little to no intention of actually working with them. After the Sudeten crisis Stalin decided to start sending signals to Hitler that he was ready to cut a deal by removing Jews from positions of influence, namely Litvinov, who had been the proponent of a deal with the Allies and was severely politically damaged by what happened to Czechoslovakia.

Maxim Litvinov - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Removing him in May killed the deal, which wasn't really going anywhere at the time due to conflicts between Britain and France as Chamberlain was largely were more interested in the appearance of doing something rather than actually working with the USSR, as his policy was still to try and work with Hitler clandestinely, as he was more anti-communist than anti-nazi and saw that in the event of war the Allies fighting Germany would be a disaster that would only benefit Stalin.

Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact negotiations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Would Lord Halifax as UK PM in early 1939 and beyond have been better than Chamberlain in regards to this?

Also, in regards to 1938, would the Western Allies have been much less likely to throw Czechoslovakia under the bus if the Soviet Union would have actually had a direct land connection with Czechoslovakia, for instance, by having the Bolsheviks conquer eastern Poland in 1920?

 

[sillygoose]

Would Lord Halifax as UK PM in early 1939 and beyond have been better than Chamberlain in regards to this?

Why would you think he would be?

Also, in regards to 1938, would the Western Allies have been much less likely to throw Czechoslovakia under the bus if the Soviet Union would have actually had a direct land connection with Czechoslovakia, for instance, by having the Bolsheviks conquer eastern Poland in 1920?

No.

 

[WolfBear]

Why would you think he would be?


No.

I don't know; that's why I'm asking you this question.

OK.

 

[WolfBear]

I think the question would be whether the Poles would trust the western powers to have both the will and capability to expel the Soviets once they were in place? I doubt I would trust Stalin to keep such an agreement if he can get enough forces into Poland and especially if the bulk of the Polish forces are mauled in the combat.

The Soviet Union did withdraw from Iran after the end of WWII in real life, FWIW. But one could argue that Poland was more important than Iran was. Most of Poland was formerly Tsarist territory, after all.

And it seems rather strange that the Anglo-French would be willing to fight to protect Poland from the Nazis but not from the Soviets even when indisputably Polish (as opposed to East Slavic) territories are involved.

 

[sillygoose]

The Soviet Union did withdraw from Iran after the end of WWII in real life, FWIW.

Only after serious threats from the US.

 

[WolfBear]

Only after serious threats from the US.

And the Anglo-French could not give the Soviet Union similar serious threats over Poland?

 

[sillygoose]

And the Anglo-French could not give the Soviet Union similar serious threats over Poland?

No, because they didn't have nukes and the Soviets just hadn't experienced WW2 and the associated damage. Plus the Anglo-French weren't in a position to intervene in Russia's backyard for acceptable losses over Poland.

 

[ATP]

What if Poland would have agreed to an Anglo-Franco-Soviet alliance in 1939 on the condition that the Anglo-French would have actually been willing to militarily expel the Soviet Union from all of Poland in the event that the Soviet Union would have refused to voluntarily leave Poland after the end of any war with the Nazis over Poland that ends with an Allied victory? Would the British, French, and Soviets have actually accepted this very reasonable Polish proposal? Basically, it would be meant to ensure that the Soviet Union would quickly leave Poland after liberating it similar to how it quickly left Iran in 1945-1946 in real life.

Thoughts on this?

No possible - becouse Sralin from at least 1925 wonted war in Europe,after which he could come and "liberate" all of it.In gulags,of course.

 

[WolfBear]

No possible - becouse Sralin from at least 1925 wonted war in Europe,after which he could come and "liberate" all of it.In gulags,of course.

Stalin actually struck me as being rather cautious prior to 1939, when he had Hitler's example to follow on and also Hitler to use as a distraction from his country's own military adventurism.

 

[ATP]

Stalin actually struck me as being rather cautious prior to 1939, when he had Hitler's example to follow on and also Hitler to use as a distraction from his country's own military adventurism.

Sralin let Hitler win election in 1933,when he forbid german commies help socilalists there.

But,he was cautious - even after alliance with Germany in 1939 he wait with his backstabbing Poland till Allies 12.09.39 decided to not start major offensive against germans.Since he ordered attack on Poland 14.9.39,he must have good spies in France,England or both.

And made everything he could to made France weaker using commies there.
His plan would worked,and Europe and Africa would be hellholes now - but,french in 1940 instead of fight decided to surrender.Which saved western Europe and their colonies.