Business & Finance Rising Labor Costs & Automation Affordability

LordSunhawk

Das BOOT (literally)
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Yes you did, right here in fact:


So either you don't understand what the word "enacted" means, or you shifted the goalposts here. Your decision, dude.
I will gladly admit to being sloppy with my language in this case, mea culpa.

You have yet to bother to respond to anything substantive, and haven't bothered to pay attention to any argument that contradicts you, instead sticking your hands in your ears and yelling 'la la la la I can't hear you'.
 

Chiron

Well-known member
Raising the minimum wage raises or stagnates unemployment, and makes it harder for low-skilled people, especially young people, to enter the workforce.

Here's one of the world's greatest economists talking about the subject:




Economics is junk science and can't be proven or disproven. Markets are a social construct created by a social contract between laborers, business owners, and government.

Given your well being is dependent on a social infrastructure built by taxes, you are not a self-made person. If your mother aborted you, you're out of the game. If a bug hit you and killed you, you're out of the game. If you were born to a hunter gatherer tribe and kept from resources and education, you're out of the game.

Being rich depends entirely on luck of the draw and your social circle able and willing to help you. Very little of it is your input, you are merely steering the works of other to your advantage.

The market isn't free or magical and the Founding Fathers of the US recognized that and rejected Capitalism for Industrial Mercantilism which was US Economic Policy right up to Reagan, a disastrous president who started our long decline.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
Which made sense right up until we figured out "Oh, wait, we can make the pie bigger."
Playing numbers games on the stock market, without the Gold Standard ( a key part of industrial mercantilism) to back it up, and changing the USD being fiat currency has had serious long term ramifications for the actual purchasing power of the the general public.

The US kept the Gold Standard even through WW2 and most of the Cold War till Reagan because it kept the USD stable, even at the expense of Wall Street; now, the USD suffers to keep Wall Street stable.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
Economics is junk science and can't be proven or disproven. Markets are a social construct created by a social contract between laborers, business owners, and government.

Given your well being is dependent on a social infrastructure built by taxes, you are not a self-made person. If your mother aborted you, you're out of the game. If a bug hit you and killed you, you're out of the game. If you were born to a hunter gatherer tribe and kept from resources and education, you're out of the game.

Being rich depends entirely on luck of the draw and your social circle able and willing to help you. Very little of it is your input, you are merely steering the works of other to your advantage.

The market isn't free or magical and the Founding Fathers of the US recognized that and rejected Capitalism for Industrial Mercantilism which was US Economic Policy right up to Reagan, a disastrous president who started our long decline.

...I'm honestly not sure if this is parody or serious?
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
I wouldn't go so far as to say junk science, but I will say that it's much more like trying to predict the weather with even more shifty variables. You never quite know what the public is going to do with their money given specific stimuli.
For example, no economic model could account for the Ever Given getting stuck in the Suez.

The whole economy and all the models of it rely on unimpeded Suez and Panama Canal access and operational ports without massive, massive backlogs.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
For example, no economic model could account for the Ever Given getting stuck in the Suez.

The whole economy and all the models of it rely on unimpeded Suez and Panama Canal access and operational ports without massive, massive backlogs.

...Is your wording funky here, or do you really think nobody in the field of economics is capable of considering the possibility of 'things going badly wrong' in their work?
 

Chiron

Well-known member
...I'm honestly not sure if this is parody or serious?

Unless this is the spam forum or fanfic section, everything I say is serious. If I am being sarcastic, I do this: [Sarcasm] [/Sarcasm] to signal that as a forum can't translate my sarcasm. Does that help you out?

Which made sense right up until we figured out "Oh, wait, we can make the pie bigger."

Which was why we needed to throw everything into the space program instead of fighting in the Vietnamese Civil War and stay focused on that. It would have had us forming a moon colony by now and exploiting the solar system for resources.

By taking our eyes off of space to fight useless brush wars we fucked ourselves and it led to us being in this shit show today.
 

Chiron

Well-known member
...Is your wording funky here, or do you really think nobody in the field of economics is capable of considering the possibility of 'things going badly wrong' in their work?
I do and they are consistently wrong.

Remember when they said outsourcing was good for America? Nevermind a man whose $30 an hour job that got outsourced meant he lost his house, his family, and could no longer buy the goods he made. It also caused his community to retract and shed other workers as he no longer bought there goods.

Everyone else could see that, an economist could not.

So economists should be seen as snake oil salesmen and avoided and not listened to. In fact slam the door in their faces and force them to get real jobs.
 

LordsFire

Internet Wizard
I do and they are consistently wrong.

Remember when they said outsourcing was good for America? Nevermind a man whose $30 an hour job that got outsourced meant he lost his house, his family, and could no longer buy the goods he made. It also caused his community to retract and shed other workers as he no longer bought there goods.

Everyone else could see that, an economist could not.

So economists should be seen as snake oil salesmen and avoided and not listened to. In fact slam the door in their faces and force them to get real jobs.

Some economists.

Like any other human institution, there are people who are both incompetent and immoral within the field.

Like any other field attached to significant wealth and power, there are people who are happy to sell out for any politician or businessman who will fund their grants.


This does not mean that every single person within the field is incompetent or corrupt. Have you ever read anything by Thomas Sowell?
 

History Learner

Well-known member
I will gladly admit to being sloppy with my language in this case, mea culpa.

Thank you for being honest, I greatly appreciate that integrity. Seriously, it is indeed rare on the internet.

You have yet to bother to respond to anything substantive, and haven't bothered to pay attention to any argument that contradicts you, instead sticking your hands in your ears and yelling 'la la la la I can't hear you'.

To what am I supposed to respond to? Your rant? If so, what specifically?
 

History Learner

Well-known member
"this paper finds that the 1966 FLSA increased wages dramatically but reduced
aggregate employment
only modestly. However, the disemployment effects were significantly
larger among African-American men, forty percent of whom earned below the new minimum
wage in 1966."


Obviously I added the emphasis here.

Do you see those words?

Those words that directly confirm what I have been saying, and Sunhawk's point about it disproportionately affecting blacks?

Yes, the people who wrote this paper clearly do it with the attitude that 'the gain was worth the cost,' as shown by how they attach the subjective modifiers 'drastically' to 'increased wages' and 'modestly' to 'reduced aggregate employment.'

That does not change that they directly say that their findings support my point.

To draw another chunk out, this time from the 'conclusion' rather than the 'abstract' section:

"For instance, substantial decreases in employment and annual hours for African-American men suggest that large changes in the minimum wage could shift the composition of employment and harm certain groups of workers. "

Because you continue to leave out the context, which is what I've repeatedly said; just constantly re-citing the same paragraph over and over again does not change that. Indeed, the last paragraph you cite below even notes this, in that you are ignoring the demand elasticities; the effects overall, were low, which is why you didn't highlight that portion of it above, while highlighting everything. Further, if you look further into it:

In 1966, for instance, 38 percent of black men and 15 percent of white men earned below the 1966 FLSA minimum wage (see Online Appendix). And, while both groups experienced large wage increases after 1966, the estimate for African-American men was almost three times as large as that for white men, owing to the fact that black men lived in lower earning regions (e.g., the South) and worked in lower earning industries previously uncovered by the FLSA. Similarly, the wages of men with less than a 12th grade education (approximately the median in 1966) increased by 33 percent more than men with at least a 12th grade education. Teenagers experienced a larger wage increase than men ages 20 to 35, who in turn experienced a larger wage increase than those age 36 to 64. However, large wage growth among teenagers comes with the caveat that the event-study estimates in Figure 7C show that their wages were trending upward in more affected states before the 1966 FLSA took effect, which limits the strength of conclusions about causal effects of the legislation. The broad conclusion, however, is that the 1966 Amendments to the FLSA substantially increased wages for a large group of workers across the country.​

Another chunk from the last paragraph before the conclusion:

"In summary, we find that the employment of African-American men and, perhaps, younger men
fell with implementation of the 1966 FLSA. Broadly speaking, the magnitude of the demand elasticities
and disemployment effects suggest that—although the aggregate effects are not large—the 1966 FLSA may
have had adverse consequences for some workers. "


It's not just the abstract that supports my point.

No, because you're ignoring the "although the aggregate effects are not large", which is related to the demand elasticities. Even if we ignore that, total employment according to the reference week fell by about 1.1% (Overall was 0.7% for all groups combined), but overall Black wealth increased substantially. Even if you ignore all context, justify a 1.1% unemployment rate (which could be tied into other causes) in terms of wages overall going up?

Beyond that though, have you ever stopped to consider the foundations of your arguments in terms of wider discussions on race?
 

Simonbob

Well-known member
Beyond that though, have you ever stopped to consider the foundations of your arguments in terms of wider discussions on race?

I have, but most people don't want to hear it, and, really, I can't be bothered.

Getting back to the subject of the thread, one of the bigger low-skill job sectors around is driving. Self driving cars aren't really working yet, but they do seem to be close. That could be a very big thing.


On a more amusing subject, at least to me, a few years ago, a lawyer told me that they'd automated much of the grunt work for legal matters. Apparently, part of a junior lawyers job was to trawl through laws for something useful for a senior lawyers case, as through that, they learned much of the law. Now, they've been replaced by a search engine.

Law degrees. Not even once.
 

Bassoe

Well-known member
On a more amusing subject, at least to me, a few years ago, a lawyer told me that they'd automated much of the grunt work for legal matters. Apparently, part of a junior lawyers job was to trawl through laws for something useful for a senior lawyers case, as through that, they learned much of the law. Now, they've been replaced by a search engine.
How quickly do you think the human lawyers can pass a law banning legalistic work performed by nonhuman means? Because non-lawmakers don't have that option when their jobs are the ones being menaced.
 

Simonbob

Well-known member
How quickly do you think the human lawyers can pass a law banning legalistic work performed by nonhuman means? Because non-lawmakers don't have that option when their jobs are the ones being menaced.
Sure, they do.

Just not as directly. This is why lobbyists exist. Heck, that's what Unions are all about ( in Australia, anyway).
 

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