Romania attacks Bulgaria rather than Transylvania right after entering WWI in 1916

[WolfBear]

What if Romania attacks Bulgaria rather than Transylvania right after entering WWI in 1916? The logic here is that if Romania, in coordination with Russia, attacks Bulgaria and knocks it out of the war while also having Russo-Romanian troops at Constantinople, then this would be a fatal blow to the Central Powers' war effort and allow the Entente to decisively win the war in 1917 or at least to be on track to do so. This would mean delayed gratification for Romania, but Romania would still ultimately realize all of its territorial gains; this would simply be a way for Romania to sacrifice and contribute to the overall Entente cause by ending the war faster.

What do you think? Realistic? And just how likely is such a move to actually succeed?

 

[WolfBear]

Romania invades Bulgaria 1916, wins WW1 ?!

This has been an idea of mine for a very long time, so I figured - why the hell not? First though, a bit of OTL background: In 1913, Bulgaria was getting its ass kicked in the Second Balkan War. Sensing an opportunity, Romania invaded Bulgaria in order to obtain a border region between the...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[raharris1973]

Militarily, I don't know if the Romanians shifting emphasis on their own have the weight to bring down the Bulgarians quickly enough.

But, if they get the reinforcement of the west for the Salonica effort timed right, as in the thread you linked, or, if they host a major Russian reinforcement and advance via Romania against the Bulgarians, there's nothing that should stop this from being a near-term military win, and big setback for the CP.

The devil is in the diplomatic details, getting each of the parties to agree to do things in the right order and to think its important enough and to wait patiently while other things do not happen. That part is hard.

Also, one thing about the Ottomans surrendering right after the Bulgarians. Sure, the Ottomans will be shocked and feel fucked over if Bulgaria capitulates and the Salonica and Romania forces unite, and they will try to get out of the war ASAP, including offering to capitulate. They will be on track to lose Constantinople. But even with all this and losing Constantinople, they still had multiple capable armies in the field. If the Allies only response to Ottoman armistice, peace-out, capitulation attempts is to try to immediately impose the full Sykes-Picot-Sazonov and Treaty of Sevres full dismemberment of the OE, I don't think Turks (or Kurds or Arabs) will just lie down and take it in 1916. If the Allies don't moderate their terms and try to enforce the dismemberment map, the Ottoman fronts will remain active fronts of considerable size, a bit more than a little "sideshow" for awhile.

 

[WolfBear]

Militarily, I don't know if the Romanians shifting emphasis on their own have the weight to bring down the Bulgarians quickly enough.

But, if they get the reinforcement of the west for the Salonica effort timed right, as in the thread you linked, or, if they host a major Russian reinforcement and advance via Romania against the Bulgarians, there's nothing that should stop this from being a near-term military win, and big setback for the CP.

The devil is in the diplomatic details, getting each of the parties to agree to do things in the right order and to think its important enough and to wait patiently while other things do not happen. That part is hard.

Also, one thing about the Ottomans surrendering right after the Bulgarians. Sure, the Ottomans will be shocked and feel fucked over if Bulgaria capitulates and the Salonica and Romania forces unite, and they will try to get out of the war ASAP, including offering to capitulate. They will be on track to lose Constantinople. But even with all this and losing Constantinople, they still had multiple capable armies in the field. If the Allies only response to Ottoman armistice, peace-out, capitulation attempts is to try to immediately impose the full Sykes-Picot-Sazonov and Treaty of Sevres full dismemberment of the OE, I don't think Turks (or Kurds or Arabs) will just lie down and take it in 1916. If the Allies don't moderate their terms and try to enforce the dismemberment map, the Ottoman fronts will remain active fronts of considerable size, a bit more than a little "sideshow" for awhile.

Well, I think that the Allies will at the very least insist that the Ottomans lose all of their non-Turkish territories. Would that work?

 

[stevep]

Well, I think that the Allies will at the very least insist that the Ottomans lose all of their non-Turkish territories. Would that work?

Would they? Britain and France have already made preliminary plans for a partition of the Arab lands but they might well be willing to get the Turks out of the war quickly, especially since that would mean opening the straits for trade and exchanges with Russia. Given that in late 1916 their just endured Verdun and the Somme and the US isn't yet in the war, plus that its likely that their a lot more interested in removing Germany as a threat.

Note that at this stage Britain has made little progress in Mesopotamia and only really driven the Turks back from any serious threat to the Suez Canal.

Assuming by non-Turkish lands your not including areas with substantial Greek populations like the Ionian coast region and the Black Sea coast?

One thing would be that the Russians would probably keep the lands their already taken in NE Anatolia which could save a fair number of the surviving Armenians in those lands.

If Turkey follows Bulgaria into some peace agreement I would think Austria would be forced to follow fairly quickly - unless while Romania is striking south and takeing out Bulgaria in combination with the EPs the Germans have responded and managed to occupy much of Romania, which they did OTL although to some degree with German forces operating from Bulgaria. If that's avoided the Black Sea is now an EP lake and with Bulgaria and Turkey out Serbian and allied forces will be liberating their homeland and threatening Austria from the south. That would mean other than their borders with Switzerland, Germany and CP occupied lands Austria is now under attack from all sides. With the battering their already taken earlier in the year in the Brusilov offensive they will see the writing on the war.

 

[WolfBear]

Would they? Britain and France have already made preliminary plans for a partition of the Arab lands but they might well be willing to get the Turks out of the war quickly, especially since that would mean opening the straits for trade and exchanges with Russia. Given that in late 1916 their just endured Verdun and the Somme and the US isn't yet in the war, plus that its likely that their a lot more interested in removing Germany as a threat.

Note that at this stage Britain has made little progress in Mesopotamia and only really driven the Turks back from any serious threat to the Suez Canal.

Fair point. But they might think that they're winning and thus insist on harsher terms.

Assuming by non-Turkish lands your not including areas with substantial Greek populations like the Ionian coast region and the Black Sea coast?

They could either be included or excluded.

One thing would be that the Russians would probably keep the lands their already taken in NE Anatolia which could save a fair number of the surviving Armenians in those lands.

Yep.

If Turkey follows Bulgaria into some peace agreement I would think Austria would be forced to follow fairly quickly - unless while Romania is striking south and takeing out Bulgaria in combination with the EPs the Germans have responded and managed to occupy much of Romania, which they did OTL although to some degree with German forces operating from Bulgaria. If that's avoided the Black Sea is now an EP lake and with Bulgaria and Turkey out Serbian and allied forces will be liberating their homeland and threatening Austria from the south. That would mean other than their borders with Switzerland, Germany and CP occupied lands Austria is now under attack from all sides. With the battering their already taken earlier in the year in the Brusilov offensive they will see the writing on the war.

You mean "see the writing on the wall", no?

Anyway, would this be enough to prevent one or both Russian Revolutions?

 

[stevep]

Fair point. But they might think that they're winning and thus insist on harsher terms.

I doubt this. The war has already been very costly and while Britain especially might want some gains - say at least the Basra area of southern Mesopotamia which they already held and secures their domination of the Gulf and ideally possibly the Gaza region to push back the Turks from a potential threat to the canal there is little of relevance in the other lands which would be a burden to govern, as they turned out to be OTL. If its a question of making such demands and keeping Turkey fighting I suspect they would seek to make peace.

They could either be included or excluded.

Other than the areas already occupied by the Russians I think this would be an even harder sell than taking the Arab lands from the empire. Greece is still a semi-allied power to the EP at the moment with the previous king removed in favour of a younger son so there is no great political commitment to seeking to secure gains for it, although another round of vicious massacres could change this. However this would be likely to be after peace in the main war.

You mean "see the writing on the wall", no?

Basically so. You might even see Germany in such a scenario forced to make peace albeit probably on somewhat more generous terms than OTL.

Anyway, would this be enough to prevent one or both Russian Revolutions?

Difficult to say. Would depend on how quickly the CPs come to terms and how Russia reacts to peace and the return of many POWs. Suspect that if the dynasty survives until a peace agreement with Germany is made then while its going to see periods of unrest it could survive for a while at least.

If it doesn't or the war goes on long enough for the revolution to overthrow the Czar and a 'democratic' state formed then Austria makes peace then you could see the latter come to terms with a desperate Germany. Although I fear the OTL provisional government is still likely to make the same commitment to continued support of their western allies. In which case a lot would depend on how things develop.