Russia strategic Culture

[ATP]

I am reading "Wszystko jest wojną/my translation - everything is war/ by Marek Budzisz about current strategic culture in Moscov.
Very interewsting book,full info about "russian" viev on war -but,problem is,what they did lately on Ukraine is against their doctrine.

I would deliver fragments of their theory - and comment how they fucked it.

First - Fritz W.Ermath in 2006 wrote,that Putin is using old tsarist system of power,modified by soviets and later kgb - but,it is basically the same.
Second - Russian members of "klub wałdajski" wanted putin to copy China of soft power/Confucius centers etc/,when all they are doing is buing members of western elites - and,it is not enough,Moscov must mentally control western elites,not just buy some of them.

And,apparently,Moscov failed do that during current war - except germany.

 

[WolfBear]

buing

Buying?

And,apparently,Moscov failed do that during current war - except germany.

German WWII war guilt? Though TBF, a lot of Ukrainians were also WWII victims due to over a million Ukrainian Red Army veterans getting killed in WWII, and this is not to mention all of the Ukrainian civilians who either perished or got murdered (especially the Jews) as a result of WWII.

 

[ATP]

Buying?



German WWII war guilt? Though TBF, a lot of Ukrainians were also WWII victims due to over a million Ukrainian Red Army veterans getting killed in WWII, and this is not to mention all of the Ukrainian civilians who either perished or got murdered (especially the Jews) as a result of WWII.

1.Yes,my mistake
2.Nope,germans want alliance with Moscov to take over Europe.Idiots,if they succed and USA leave us,they would be next to massgraves.

Now,another authors mentioned in book:

1.Isaiah Berlin,british diplomat,who in 1946 lectured his friends about how soviet thought.
Basically,they:
A.Belived,that everything is part of some "great plan" - for example,for then England rising as superpower since 1688 was for them plot of secret cabal which for generations lead England to greatness.
They simply could not belive,that it happened becouse people simply acted in their own best interest.

B.Belived,that elites must teach nation as adults teach children - sometimes with stick.For their/people/ own good.

2.Władimir Surkow,man close to Putin - he belive the same.And,elites who rule is made from KGB,it is maybe 300.000 people in entire Russia - including 1000 who realy decide what to do.

They consider diplomacy as unimportant

3.Walerij Gierasimov - his doctrine of war have deep roots - Tuchaczewski postulated attacking without declaring war,Georgij Isserson wanted attack fast with armored groups before enemy mobilize,Jewgienij Messner wanted war started with disinformation and in way that nobody would knew tat it started.

Here,Gierasimov doctrine:
3.1 - international isolation of target
3.2.Economical sanctions of target/not neccessary/
3.3 fake uprising made by soviet troops
3.4- talk about peace and promise war,if victims do not agree to everything
3.5 - Attack - but also using psychology - target morale of enemy elites,so they want to surrender,target will to fight of populace,use special forces to destroy HQ,maslirowka where main forces would attack
3.6.-Planes and missiles would destroy HQ and airfields,quick victory.
3.7.-occupation.

it is fine doctrine,if you ask me.

Becouse Moscov planned quick war/before NATO would react/ they plan to use relatively small army.
That is why they have only 13 logistic centers with 580 ammo bunkers.Compared to times before reform - 10 time less.

What is IMPORTANT - for Moscov they arleady are in war with West,only in "non-kinetic phaze"
After conqering some state,they plan to de-escalate,using:
A. many hits in important cyvilan infrastructure
B.nuke detonated on territory with small population.

After that,they excepted peace and bussines as usual.


It is all very rational,BUT - why they DO NOT USE THEIR FINE DOCTRINES ON UKRAINE?

Well,another authors in next update.

 

[ATP]

Moscov belived,that NATO would use 500-600 small nukes /100kt/ to destroy their H forces,so they have counter plan for that - 100 missiles with tsar bombs to erase USA from existence.

Since Moscov could send 60+ battalions to take Baltic states,they could not hold.And,since NATO would sent help after 4 months,Poland probably would not hold,too.

For Gerasimov,Venezuela people protesting are proof,that USA must started war there.Just like any other protest.
So,it is possible,that if postsoviet people in Moscov start protesting,kgb would consider it as american attack and send nukes to USA.


In Moscov people are not sure,who is really ruling - kgb mafia with putin as puppet/Kolesnikow/ ,or Putin/Tatjana Stanojewa/

Moscov send all commanders to serve in Syria - so,they are all veterans now.They also belive,that time is helping them,so they would not start war,unless it would be quick.

Moscov belive,that China till 2050 would become more powerfull,and India could fight them.They plan to prevent that,becouse,in their opinion,ANY war in Asia would lead to Moscov as China vassal state.

WŁADISŁAW SURKOW - in 2017 that Putin friend made theory of "island Russia" - mediator between weakened West and China,but not part of any.He also belive,that West would become authoritarian and ruled by "tsar of West"

WAŁDAJ CLUB in 2020 declared that Moscov get everything they wanted,and now must wait till West would become weaker to take more without war.Smart theory - why they do not followed it?

WADIM CYMBURSKI - "Great Strategy" + "island Russia" - basically like Sadurski.

IZRAEL - Moscov support them against Iran in Syria/let bomb iranian troops there/,Izrael in 2008 gave Moscov codes to georgian drones.
Izrael support Moscov in lying about soviet crimes - so called DOUBLE GENOCIDE THEORY/everybody who claim that soviet genocided somebody is enemy of Izrael/

Interesting thing - Moscov let Izrael bomb Iran in Syria,and still is friend of both countries.
Much better diplomacy then USA.

 

[ATP]

Moscov observed danger of both Turkey and China - so they planned to counter it by encircling Turkey/Syria,Libya,Iran,Egypt/ and making "Alliance of the weak" against China.


In 2014 they decided that they need Ukraine as buffer ,and keep Poland weak using lies about WW2.

Interesting,Petruszow,one of "silownik",knew that Moscov would face problemd with nationalists which want independence,but belived that is is all fault of West.

Russia would continue to dying,when Iran and Turkey not.And Mendelejew in 1906 belived that Russian Empire in 2000 would have 594 millions of people.
Mainly becouse:

1.Soviets never had 2th Medical revolution - they fought epidemis,but not helped against cancer and heart problems.cigarettes and especially vodka.
And that is what killing russians now.especially males.

2.Abortions - more children die,then is born.

3.HIV/AIDS - it become epidemis,1% of population have it.

Even more important - russians are dying,people from North Caucasus and partially Siberia are groving in numbers.

Now,few important soviet authors:

1.Dmitrij Trawin - he belive,that KGB after taking control seek ideology
2.Siergiej Karaganow from Wałdaj club - he invented "russian idea" - family,safety,ecology,

3.Putin defined "russian idea" as patriotism,statism,and solidarity.With russian version of capitalism.
Also,monarchism and communism as two russian traditions,and suvereign state - russian.Which could attack other states.
In 2019 he declared,that bad Poland provoked war,soviet did nothing wrong,and baltic states belong to them.


4.Walerij Zorkin/judge/ belive,that without solidarity Russia would face revolution.

5.Aleksiej Miller -
A.integral human,instead of liberal one./tradition etc/
B.Safety more important then freedom.
C.Revolutions always bad
D.Society - organic,not kind of deal
E.Elity must rule according to traditions.
And, he want free market with social state and strong family.

More in next post.

 

[bintananth]

Have you ever read No Hero For the Kaiser ("Der Schädel des Negerhäuptlings Makaua" (i.e: "The skull of the negro chief Makaua" was the original German title))? "The Boy Who Forgot His Birthday" is another title.

It's about a teenage Polish boy who got caught up in WWI and walked away.

The book is an anti-war children's book, makes All Quiet On The Western Front look pleasant, and - like All Quiet - was banned and burned by the Nazis.

 

[ATP]

Have you ever read No Hero For the Kaiser ("Der Schädel des Negerhäuptlings Makaua" (i.e: "The skull of the negro chief Makaua" was the original German title))? "The Boy Who Forgot His Birthday" is another title.

It's about a teenage Polish boy who got caught up in WWI and walked away.

The book is an anti-war children's book, makes All Quiet On The Western Front look pleasant, and - like All Quiet - was banned and burned by the Nazis.

Germans,not nazis.
And,what do you think about russian theories/good ones/ and why they do not follow their own doctrine?

 

[bintananth]

Germans,not nazis.
And,what do you think about russian theories/good ones/ and why they do not follow their own doctrine?

Russia is sorta "the friend nobody likes". You have to invite them to the party because if you don't they're going to crash the party and make a huge mess everyone else gets to clean up.

 

[ATP]

Russia is sorta "the friend nobody likes". You have to invite them to the party because if you don't they're going to crash the party and make a huge mess everyone else gets to clean up.

Till now.It seems,that nobody need them anymore.
Now,back to their/very good/ theories:

1.Russian weapon industry - 1319 firms,but only 583 would survive without state help.And,althought state abolished debst of those who had problems many times,they still produce new one .Debst,that is it.
But - it si mostly state fault,they pay them less then they should and later then they promised.
2020 they sell 36% less weapons then 2019 - which hit them hard.



2.New Technologies -
they have problems with new systems - they supposed to have 220 Su57,have 6.
2.300 Armata,made maybe 20.Oleg Faliczew even stated that currently producing Armata is impossible for Russia - becouse they need new technologies which they lack.
He even suspect,that it was fake from the start,and nobody really wanted mass produce it,only use it in politics.

New missiles-
Avangard - Maxim Kalasznikow claim,that it need old SS19 missiles as first stage which are no produced anymore,and could hit only stationary targets.
Cyrkon - Mark Sołonin checked,that there is no pictured of it when it fly,so it could be fake.

Electronic walfare - during Azerbejian-Armenia war russian new systems do not worked against turkish drones.

Communication - new system,ASU-12 is 20 year old,and unable to coordinate drones and loitering ammo.

Drones - Moscov ignored them,so now their new drones,Ochotnik C-70,could be mass produced about 2025.

So,all of their new technologies are either not here yet,or not working.
As a result,they decided to take over Belarus and Kazachstan,not trying anything more.

That was in book from 2021.In 2022 they started full scale war.Why they ignored their own doctrine?

 

[ATP]

In the end of the book,we have theories why Moscov is different:
1.Economist Stefan Hedlund -
He citated Douglas Nort,who observed that free market is not enough - arabs had it,and did nothing like Europe.
What we need is "economical organization" - laws and norms which mean possible bussines without destroing society.
Basically,our states defended laws of property in right way - that is why West succed.

In Moscov,from Ivan the terrible coward state organized people to get resources - furs,grain,now gas and oil.There is no real laws of property there.

In Moscov,they had laws of property till tsar decided to take it.They also had duty to denunciating anybody who do not agree with state,family responsible for what you did and kormlenie - monopoly for stealing from people in local territory.

2.Władisław Surkow,Kremlin ideolog - he created theory of "glubinnoj narod" - nation which do nt react to anything what rulers do,as long as they follow soviet pattern.
If rulers try do not made Empire,or treat people as free ,then the same dudes who let state prosecute them would destroy it.

For Surkow it is good thing.
Interesting thing - our poet,Adam Mickiewicz,observed that moscovites are people who would fight to remain tsar slaves.For him it was bad thing.

 

[ATP]

Andriej Pielipienko
He belive in existence of "Russian Matrix" - which mean,that all rulers must end ruling in soviet way.
Becouse russian still have archaic infantile society - in which order of cosmos in mirrored on Earth.something which Mircae Eliade described among prymitive societes.witrh collectivism and indyvidualism as sin against society.

Moscov version allow some indyvidualizm in state service,but that is all.

And,that is why russian beurocrats could be failures - they must serve as mirror of higher order,not help people.

In Russia,from Peter the great we have two societes - modernized elites,and archaic society.They must either hate or love,but not cooperate among free people.

Andriej belive,that Saint Augustine and his influence on orthodox church could be blamed,too - when we had Saint Thomas,who was more practical.
And,we had philosophy from ancient times,when Moscov had it from 19th century.

In West,we have culture which intermediate between people and world of ideals.In Moscov,it was sacred duty of state.
For us,Empire is secular thing to get economical and political advantages ,for Moscov - it is plan of Divinity for them to fulfillborders of Russia are borders of order against Chaos.

Moscov is like amoeba - city as nukleus,and rest becoming bigger and bigger.

It is Theocratic empire with feudal structure.

 

[ATP]

Few less important russians:
1.Timowiej Bardaczow/Wałdaj club/ - in 2021 he claimed that West do not accept them,so they should go to Asia,and stop using NS1 and NS 2 to send gas to germans.

2.Siergiej Karaganow - West after 500 years is falling ,and what would left would be autocratic and anti-russians- Moscov should ally with China,and do not wage wars,but conserve strenght.

3.Fiodor Łukjanow/Wałdaj club/
3A - post-soviet integration failed
3B - integration with West failed
3C - problems on East
3D - forget diplomacy,only military matter.

He wanted alliance with Turkey,not China/they betrayed Armenia for them/
and,since Berlin arleady is ruling Europe,that mean germans as enemies - then stop any cooperation with germany./For him,since germans arleady do what they wanted thanks to alliance with Moscov,they would be their enemies now/

Main target - take over Belarus.

4.Dmitr Ewstafiew - he belived,that integration with postsoviet states failed,and Turkey and China are removing Moscov influence there.
South borders of Russia are no longer safe,and they could lost lands there.
Moscov must now defend itself,not expand.

 

[bintananth]

A russian warmonger probably can not match my neice Lampagie in terms of improvised "here's how it's done".

When she was six she got loose and went missing for a few hours on a Sunday morning. When she was found she had a loaded and bayonetted M1903 that she was aiming at people.

 

[ATP]

A russian warmonger probably can not match my neice Lampagie in terms of improvised "here's how it's done".

When she was six she got loose and went missing for a few hours on a Sunday morning. When she was found she had a loaded and bayonetted M1903 that she was aiming at people.

Maybe? i simply do not undarstandt,how people who created very smart theories how to deal with West fucked it so badly.
Idiots should be idiots entire time,not have brilliant ideas ,for time even following them,and then fucking it.

Well,another russians:
1.Andriej Koloszin - for him strategic culture is about goals,when war is just one of tools to get that goals.

2.Von Molte older theory that politicians should start war,choose goal,and then leave it to generals.Tsarist Russia agreed with that,but soviets and postsoviets rejected it.

1.Borys Szaposznikow belived that politicians must control army,becouse soldiers could not made compromises.Reason as good as any other,but - we knew why Sralin do not killed him.

2.Alexander Swieczin and Michał Frunze belived in "Higher strategy" - made from military,diplomacy,economical pressure,dyversion and propaganda - where basically everything was war,only other tools was used before army invaded.

Basically - Russia is state in perpetual war with everybody,goal is defeat of enemy in social darwinizm way - cooperation is impossible,you could be enemy or slave.

Everybody,who do not want dictate of Moscov is enemy blocking road to Moscov greatness.Neighbours first,but not last.

Russia,after germans were defeated in WW2,is last military society in world.


Book is from 2021 - and,according to author,Russians have good theory - take Belaruss and Kazachstan,wait till West fall,and take more.At the same time defend from China and Turkey - althought they considered cooperation with them,too.

Do not engage in any war longer then month.

They also planned to stop cooperation with Germany through NS1 and NS2.

All very logical - but,they started war in 2022 and fucked it.WHY? WHY? WHERE IS STRONG AND SMART KGB WHICH I ALWAYS FEARED?
And who turned them into idiots?


No,that must be their secret plan.They would use our overconfidence to take over World! yes,it must be that.KGB could not be idiots,right?