Second Russian Civil War

[Zyobot]

As much as we Westerners fear the imminent collapse of Globalism, economic free-fall in which we all wind up in the poorhouse, or even another civil war consuming the United States, it's easy to overlook how rival players seeking to exploit the West's vulnerabilities have much the same weaknesses to an even worse degree.

Case in point: The Russian Federation, now a shadow of its Soviet self where fertility rates have collapsed, the average citizen is a poor apartment-dweller, and billionaire oligarchs represented by an ex-KGB agent rule through thuggery and flashy displays of nationalism rather than anything of substance. The only thing left going for it is military might, which recent developments in Ukraine have called into question. Mix that in with the failed Wagner coup attempt proving far more serious than anything the January 6th rioters pulled off, and you have a tinderbox waiting to ignite once the inertia's been spent and the man holding it all together passes from the scene.

So, that cheering prospect in mind, what would a Second Russian Civil War or Russian Warlord Period look like, both in terms of the "on-the-ground" experience for everyday Russians (21st century warfare, the domestic factions, and the tribulations faced by local communities) and the larger geopolitical context in which foreign actors (China and the West) have a part to play?

(Note that I'm not just talking about the usual "Next 5 to 10 years!" timeframe most people have their heads. Rather, I'm talking about forecasts of how even a generous scenario will go, in the event Putin hangs on well into old age and has a short-lived successor, which places my timeframe well into the 2030s, 2040s, and beyond.)


Best guess off the top of my head is it'll look something like Syria writ large, except with little to no central government to speak of, scads of WMDs loose for all the warlords to pick up, and some combination of Chinese, Western, and possibly Eastern European forces marching in to restore order. The other analogy I can think of is something resembling the Chinese Civil War transplanted onto a Russian background, sans a "Chairman Mao" figure emerging to unify the nation and put decades of warfare to an end.

Thank you in advance,
Zyobot

 

[ATP]

Minorities like Tatars trying to create their own states,China supported warlords,USA supported warlords,Turkey supported warlords.
And dude fighting for Moscov and Petersburg long after that stopped have any sense.

 

[Aaron Fox]

Honestly, the probable scenario is straight out of Empire Earth 1's Russian Campaign... given that reality has been stealing plots from fiction and telling fiction 'hold my beer' with utter glee.

Also, it should be noted that if globalism goes bye-bye, we'll return to the cycle of war pretty damn quickly. Likely something similar to Battletech during the Age of War era...

 

[ATP]

Honestly, the probable scenario is straight out of Empire Earth 1's Russian Campaign... given that reality has been stealing plots from fiction and telling fiction 'hold my beer' with utter glee.

Also, it should be noted that if globalism goes bye-bye, we'll return to the cycle of war pretty damn quickly. Likely something similar to Battletech during the Age of War era...

Only among states without nukes.If Ukraine keep theirs,kgbstan would never dare invade them.

 

[Zyobot]

Few more thoughts, since I have time to kill:

Think @ATP is pretty much right about rampant warlords and separatists with axes to grind, especially the Chechens and Tatars. However fraught things are in the US or Canada, race relations are still downright neighborly compared to Russia and its long history of ethnic conflicts (many of them caused or exacerbated by the Tsarist and Soviet regimes themselves). As a result, Chechnya's probably breaking off, with even a best-case scenario (such as a liberal Russian regime propped up by the West) seeing it leave in what can best be described as an apologetic divorce in which Russia lets them go as a gesture of apology or restitution. Otherwise, it'll be by force, which makes problems for more than just the Chechens or Tatars themselves.

Also curious is what Eastern Europe's stake in this will be? As ATP can attest to, Russia's neighbors have scores to settle themselves, so depending on how spiteful the Viségrad Group is feeling and whether the West is decisive enough to reign things in by the time Putin croaks, Eastern Europe may just mow down Russian refugees and march in to restore order themselves. If there's anyone who'd be all too happy to enact a "counter-genocide" on their former oppressors, it'd probably be Russia's neighbors.

Concerning Russia itself, I suppose "Continent-spanning gang war with lots of biological/chemical/nuclear surprises!" is one way to describe the Russian Warlord Period. Remember someone comparing them to the Mexican cartels in a PM; certainly, it's not a bad comparison, as I'm quite sure cartel culture makes a decent proxy for the brutality and self-enriching callousness of the gangster oligarchs. However, I'd nitpick by pointing out that last time I checked, Los Zetas and Sinola never had anything quite resembling an air force, naval assets, or main battle tanks (other than lighter armored combat vehicles and such) — much less WMDs or the infrastructure to maintain and churn out more. These guys, on the other hand, would have those in spades, especially with active-duty Russian military personnel defecting in droves, while armories, bases, and factories get grabbed up in a mad scramble to shore up their personal holdings. So, less Mexican Drug War, more Wagner Group 2.0s fighting like mad dogs over the last carcass in the desert.

No doubt you'd get a staggering death toll, as a declining world power immolates before our eyes. Thus far, my impression is that the official body counts of 21st century conflicts have been surprisingly low, though whether this is due to a more "humane" style of warfare or the inability to take a competent census in the midst of wartime (in which the true death toll is way worse than advertised) isn't all that clear to me. Either way, I expect both to reverse course fast and hard here, with the inevitable WMD usage, gangster-driven atrocities, and breakdown in supply chains inducing starvation and looting by desperate mobs of impoverished Russians who have nothing left to lose. By then, my suspicion is that a Russian Warlord Period would approach (if not match, or even exceed) the death toll of the entirety of World War II — all while being mostly concentrated in Russia and its periphery, rather than the killing being a worldwide affair.

 

[ATP]

Few more thoughts, since I have time to kill:

Think @ATP is pretty much right about rampant warlords and separatists with axes to grind, especially the Chechens and Tatars. However fraught things are in the US or Canada, race relations are still downright neighborly compared to Russia and its long history of ethnic conflicts (many of them caused or exacerbated by the Tsarist and Soviet regimes themselves). As a result, Chechnya's probably breaking off, with even a best-case scenario (such as a liberal Russian regime propped up by the West) seeing it leave in what can best be described as an apologetic divorce in which Russia lets them go as a gesture of apology or restitution. Otherwise, it'll be by force, which makes problems for more than just the Chechens or Tatars themselves.

Also curious is what Eastern Europe's stake in this will be? As ATP can attest to, Russia's neighbors have scores to settle themselves, so depending on how spiteful the Viségrad Group is feeling and whether the West is decisive enough to reign things in by the time Putin croaks, Eastern Europe may just mow down Russian refugees and march in to restore order themselves. If there's anyone who'd be all too happy to enact a "counter-genocide" on their former oppressors, it'd probably be Russia's neighbors.

Concerning Russia itself, I suppose "Continent-spanning gang war with lots of biological/chemical/nuclear surprises!" is one way to describe the Russian Warlord Period. Remember someone comparing them to the Mexican cartels in a PM; certainly, it's not a bad comparison, as I'm quite sure cartel culture makes a decent proxy for the brutality and self-enriching callousness of the gangster oligarchs. However, I'd nitpick by pointing out that last time I checked, Los Zetas and Sinola never had anything quite resembling an air force, naval assets, or main battle tanks (other than lighter armored combat vehicles and such) — much less WMDs or the infrastructure to maintain and churn out more. These guys, on the other hand, would have those in spades, especially with active-duty Russian military personnel defecting in droves, while armories, bases, and factories get grabbed up in a mad scramble to shore up their personal holdings. So, less Mexican Drug War, more Wagner Group 2.0s fighting like mad dogs over the last carcass in the desert.

No doubt you'd get a staggering death toll, as a declining world power immolates before our eyes. Thus far, my impression is that the official body counts of 21st century conflicts have been surprisingly low, though whether this is due to a more "humane" style of warfare or the inability to take a competent census in the midst of wartime (in which the true death toll is way worse than advertised) isn't all that clear to me. Either way, I expect both to reverse course fast and hard here, with the inevitable WMD usage, gangster-driven atrocities, and breakdown in supply chains inducing starvation and looting by desperate mobs of impoverished Russians who have nothing left to lose. By then, my suspicion is that a Russian Warlord Period would approach (if not match, or even exceed) the death toll of the entirety of World War II — all while being mostly concentrated in Russia and its periphery, rather than the killing being a worldwide affair.

Poland learned on its mistakes,we would not march on Moscov again.Only taking Królewiec,and maybe making few trips to get some H bombs.