Election 2020 The "Art" of Polling for the 2020 Election

Rocinante

Russian Bot
Founder


Cnn polls are shit. But a 16 point lead is noteworthy regardless if the poll is kind of shitty.

These are the post debate numbers.

I told you guys that debate was a fucking mess and a mistake. I know a few people personally who were going to vote Trump and decided they aren't, after that embarrassment of a debate.

I'm sure many of you loved him being a belligerent bully instead of actually debating ideas. But the majority of the public, myself included, did not.

Trump lost that debate by interrupting 145 times and not actually debating.

I stand by every post I made in this thread. I was right.

Worst, dumpster fire of a "debate" I have ever seen on my life. It was pathetic.

If Trump behaves like this next time, then I am thinking he may be trying to throw the election.
 

Sailor.X

Cold War Veteran
Founder
" I beat COVID Joe, you couldn't have done that you would have died"
"Marla............ um you know the old timey saying you know the thing."



Cnn polls are shit. But a 16 point lead is noteworthy regardless if the poll is kind of shitty.

These are the post debate numbers.

I told you guys that debate was a fucking mess and a mistake. I know a few people personally who were going to vote Trump and decided they aren't, after that embarrassment of a debate.

I'm sure many of you loved him being a belligerent bully instead of actually debating ideas. But the majority of the public, myself included, did not.

Trump lost that debate by interrupting 145 times and not actually debating.

I stand by every post I made in this thread. I was right.

Worst, dumpster fire of a "debate" I have ever seen on my life. It was pathetic.

If Trump behaves like this next time, then I am thinking he may be trying to throw the election.
I know several people who have decided to vote for Trump because of how he did in the debate. Why because they decided to fact check Trump and found out he was telling the truth. Trump won the debate.
 
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Duke Nukem

Hail to the king baby


Cnn polls are shit. But a 16 point lead is noteworthy regardless if the poll is kind of shitty.

These are the post debate numbers.

I told you guys that debate was a fucking mess and a mistake. I know a few people personally who were going to vote Trump and decided they aren't, after that embarrassment of a debate.

I'm sure many of you loved him being a belligerent bully instead of actually debating ideas. But the majority of the public, myself included, did not.

Trump lost that debate by interrupting 145 times and not actually debating.

I stand by every post I made in this thread. I was right.

Worst, dumpster fire of a "debate" I have ever seen on my life. It was pathetic.

If Trump behaves like this next time, then I am thinking he may be trying to throw the election.
Good chance of that poll being intentionally biased since it's CNN
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder


Cnn polls are shit. But a 16 point lead is noteworthy regardless if the poll is kind of shitty.

These are the post debate numbers.

I told you guys that debate was a fucking mess and a mistake. I know a few people personally who were going to vote Trump and decided they aren't, after that embarrassment of a debate.

I'm sure many of you loved him being a belligerent bully instead of actually debating ideas. But the majority of the public, myself included, did not.

Trump lost that debate by interrupting 145 times and not actually debating.

I stand by every post I made in this thread. I was right.

Worst, dumpster fire of a "debate" I have ever seen on my life. It was pathetic.

If Trump behaves like this next time, then I am thinking he may be trying to throw the election.
Trusting any poll from CNN is a mistake, as is trusting any poll that has either candidate up by double digits.

Also, stop pretending they would have let Trump actually debate policies, instead of Wallace interrupting him to 'fact check' him midway through or Biden simply saying Trump didn't know what he was talking about.

Because those were things that happened.

Stop pretending it was a level playing field or that Trump was going to be allowed to have a 'normal' debate instead of a 2v1 attack-fest.

Edit: To be blunt, you keep acting like Trump should play the establishments game, and let the biased media dictate terms to him vis vi the debates, instead of being the person he was elected to be.
 

Sailor.X

Cold War Veteran
Founder
Good chance of that poll being intentionally biased since it's CNN
freaking Daily mail is more truthful these days then CNN.
CNN polls are always cooked. If people look at the aggregate. Which is how you tell the true numbers. They will see Trump is at 45.5 approval and rising.

\
News companies from other countries are more credible than american ones at this point tbh.
NHK News in Japan is the best for covering Trump accurately.
 

Cherico

Well-known member
\
News companies from other countries are more credible than american ones at this point tbh.

That's actually been true for awhile, most news companies in America completely gutted their on the ground information outside the US during the 90s to save money, then they started gutting their on the ground people, then they started gutting their editorial boards who made sure to fact check stories.

Cheap activists were highered to cut costs and do click bait around 2010. Ten years later we get news that even Soviet Pravda wouldnt have let out the news room. Over consolidation made this problem worse not better, these days our news organizations are a sick dying breed.

I would feel pity for them if they haddnt gotten rid of all of their ethics.
 

Vaermina

Well-known member


Cnn polls are shit. But a 16 point lead is noteworthy regardless if the poll is kind of shitty.

These are the post debate numbers.

I told you guys that debate was a fucking mess and a mistake. I know a few people personally who were going to vote Trump and decided they aren't, after that embarrassment of a debate.

I'm sure many of you loved him being a belligerent bully instead of actually debating ideas. But the majority of the public, myself included, did not.

Trump lost that debate by interrupting 145 times and not actually debating.

I stand by every post I made in this thread. I was right.

Worst, dumpster fire of a "debate" I have ever seen on my life. It was pathetic.

If Trump behaves like this next time, then I am thinking he may be trying to throw the election.
The poll refuses to publish it's methodology outside of listing the numbers of Landline/Cellphones.

Which means we can automatically discard it.
 

Certified_Heterosexual

The Falklands are Serbian, you cowards.
With cancel culture at the fever pitch it is right now, any poll based on cold-calling people over the phone is going to be massively skewed just by the Shy Tory factor alone. We all know what "the right answer" is, and who knows whether your phone number might end up on some Antifa list somewhere? Easier just to claim to be pro-Biden or undecided and move on with your life.

Redneck Taqiyya is real.
 

Duke Nukem

Hail to the king baby
With cancel culture at the fever pitch it is right now, any poll based on cold-calling people over the phone is going to be massively skewed just by the Shy Tory factor alone. We all know what "the right answer" is, and who knows whether your phone number might end up on some Antifa list somewhere? Easier just to claim to be pro-Biden or undecided and move on with your life.

Redneck Taqiyya is real.

Saying undecided might still get the Antifa death squads sent after you.
 

Certified_Heterosexual

The Falklands are Serbian, you cowards.
With cancel culture at the fever pitch it is right now, any poll based on cold-calling people over the phone is going to be massively skewed just by the Shy Tory factor alone. We all know what "the right answer" is, and who knows whether your phone number might end up on some Antifa list somewhere? Easier just to claim to be pro-Biden or undecided and move on with your life.

Redneck Taqiyya is real.

I want to expand on this, if I may.

The main reason to be downhearted about the election is the polls, which are rotten for the President. I don't mean to be dismissive of polling, and I don't think all polls are consciously rigged, but they've been wrong before and there's very good reason to think they might be wrong now. These polls are all taking place in a febrile environment where people can literally lose their jobs for supporting Trump. Are some people refusing to tell the pollsters who they plan to vote for, or simply lying? Absolutely. The only question is by what percentage.

But I'm 95% certain Trump will win, and by a large enough margin that even the inevitable mail-in ballot fraud won't be able to drag Biden over the finish line. As I've been saying repeatedly on this forum every sign, indicator, trend or fundamental—EXCEPT the big media polls—points to a Trump victory. And I mean that literally. From enthusiasm, to party support, to primary turnout, to the economy, I haven't been able to find anything, other than the polls, that points to a Trump loss.

Having said that, if Trump loses (he won't), I refuse to let the wokelings see me moan or cry. I will complain here, online and anonymous, but IRL (where it matters) I'm going to get up, smile a rueful little smile, dust myself off, and get back in the game. I'm not going to give my enemies the satisfaction of seeing me in despair.

Trump losing (he won't) would be a blow, but it's not the end of the world.

John Robb says that a Trump loss would usher in a technocratic oppression, as the social media companies and the big corporations worked to institute something like a backdoor social credit score, to keep us bigoted Neanderthals in line by deplatforming us from everything from social media to banking. (He call this corporate censorship and oppression the "Long Night," in that it'd be very difficult to get out of.) At the same time, he also notes that a Trump loss and the subsequent ramping up of online oppression would galvanize the Right like nothing before, to the point that he thinks we'd come roaring back in 2024, to the eternal regret of the shitlibs, who we'll be teeing off on. (You want oppression, soy boy? Well here it is.)

That's in line with what I believe, that a Trump loss (which won't happen) forces us to act in a more coordinated and politically coherent way. As bad as the anger against the left and the establishment was in 2016, it's a thousand times worse now. Trump might have acted as a release valve, but the Derp State and the media worked so hard to thwart Trump and discredit his followers that they're angrier and more energized than ever before. It would actually be better for them if Trump wins, because it would take some of the pressure out of the system. Whoever controls the Right after Trump will be nowhere near as polite and conciliatory.

If you want to see helicopter rides, a Trump loss in November is the fastest way to get there.

Personally I'd prefer to avoid our current civil unrest getting any worse. I want a county in which the electoral process functions normally, in which an elected president exercises control over an unelected bureaucracy and in which the press reports on those matters fairly.

To conclude: Trump is not losing, and even if he does lose (he won't), it will be a Pyrrhic victory for the Left at best.
 

Certified_Heterosexual

The Falklands are Serbian, you cowards.
I want to expand on this, if I may.

The main reason to be downhearted about the election is the polls, which are rotten for the President. I don't mean to be dismissive of polling, and I don't think all polls are consciously rigged, but they've been wrong before and there's very good reason to think they might be wrong now. These polls are all taking place in a febrile environment where people can literally lose their jobs for supporting Trump. Are some people refusing to tell the pollsters who they plan to vote for, or simply lying? Absolutely. The only question is by what percentage.

Holy crap, I thought those numbers would be significant, I didn't think they'd be YUUUUUGE

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Rocinante

Russian Bot
Founder


If true, this is huge.

My polling method puts him ahead in Ohio.

My polling method: driving around and looking at yard signs. Lol

Some areas are heavily Biden but I see WAYYY more yard signs for Trump.

Actual polling says it's a tie. When you account for liars and polling bias, Trump has a steady lead.
 

Bacle

When the effort is no longer profitable...
Founder
My polling method puts him ahead in Ohio.

My polling method: driving around and looking at yard signs. Lol

Some areas are heavily Biden but I see WAYYY more yard signs for Trump.

Actual polling says it's a tie. When you account for liars and polling bias, Trump has a steady lead.
Even in CO I see more Trump signs than Biden signs.

Of course most of the Biden signs, the few I've seen, are in urban areas. In the rural areas, there are Trump signs all over.

I suspect many urban voters may be Trump voters who simply don't want their yards trashed for having a Trump signs.
 

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