The assassination attempt on Franz Ferdinand fails but since he's hospitalized, war breaks out anyway; can FF make a separate peace later on?

[WolfBear]

The assassination attempt on Franz Ferdinand fails but since he's hospitalized, war breaks out anyway; can FF make a separate peace later on, after he becomes Kaiser of Austria-Hungary after his uncle Franz Joseph's death? What do you think, @sillygoose? FF would have very likely opposed this war from the very beginning, but this war would have still occurred due to FF being temporarily incapacitated. FF would likely see the potential doom that this war would cause for his empire, but if he attempts to make a separate peace, then he could face a pro-German coup attempt or even an outright German occupation of his country. So, what exactly would FF do after he will become Austro-Hungarian Kaiser in this TL? He might aim for a general peace like his nephew Kaiser Karl did in real life, but Germany simply won't be interested in this. What then? What would FF do afterwards? Just give up? Or do something else?

 

[Buba]

I believe that FF was personal friends with WII hence he'd go about peacemaking much differently than Karl.

 

[WolfBear]

I believe that FF was personal friends with WII hence he'd go about peacemaking much differently than Karl.

How would he go about peacemaking, then? Try to persuade Kaiser Bill that a compromise peace needs to occur as soon as possible? And what if Kaiser Bill is unconvinced of this?

 

[sillygoose]

Nope. He'd run into the same problem as Carl. Again the issue wasn't the CPs it was the Entente since they pursued war to break the CPs and carve them up. The Russians were still pushing for shockingly maximalist gains as late as 1916 and the British blocked negotiation efforts by Wilson via Col. House.

 

[WolfBear]

Nope. He'd run into the same problem as Carl. Again the issue wasn't the CPs it was the Entente since they pursued war to break the CPs and carve them up. The Russians were still pushing for shockingly maximalist gains as late as 1916 and the British blocked negotiation efforts by Wilson via Col. House.

I wonder if FF can persuade Kaiser Bill to block USW, though. Or at least to delay it by several months to see if a positive development will occur in the meantime.

 

[sillygoose]

I wonder if FF can persuade Kaiser Bill to block USW, though. Or at least to delay it by several months to see if a positive development will occur in the meantime.

The pressure from H-L and the public had gotten to the point where Bill couldn't stop it; he'd be removed if he tried.

 

[WolfBear]

The pressure from H-L and the public had gotten to the point where Bill couldn't stop it; he'd be removed if he tried.

Interesting.

What do you think of Ottokar von Czernin's suggestions here?

The Project Gutenberg eBook of In the World War, by Count Ottokar Czernin

Franz Ferdinand's character held many sharply defined corners and edges; judging him objectively, no one can deny his great faults. Though the circumstances of his death were so tragic, it may well be that for him it was a blessing. It is hardly conceivable that, once on the throne, the Archduke would have been able to carry out his plans. The structure of the Monarchy which he was so anxious to strengthen and support was already so rotten that it could not have stood any great innovations, and if not the war, then probably the Revolution, would have shattered it. On the other hand, there seems to be no doubt that the Archduke, with all the vehemence and impulsiveness of his character, would have made the attempt to rebuild the entire structure of the Monarchy. It is futile to comment on the chances of his success, but according to human foresight the experiment would not have succeeded, and he would have succumbed beneath the ruins of the falling Monarchy.

It is also futile to conjecture how the Archduke would have acted had he lived to see the war and the upheaval. I think that in two respects his attitude would have differed from that [Pg 49]taken. In the first place, he never would have agreed to our army being under German control. It would not have been consistent with his strongly developed autocratic tendencies, and he was too clever politically not to see that we should thereby lose all political freedom of action. In the second place, he would not, like the Emperor Charles, have yielded to revolution. He would have gathered his faithful followers round him and would have fallen fighting, sword in hand. He would have fallen as did his greatest and most dangerous enemy, Stephen Tisza.

But he died the death of a hero on the field of honour, valiantly and in harness. The golden rays of the martyr's crown surrounded his dying head. Many there were who breathed more freely on hearing the news of his death. At the court in Vienna and in society at Budapest there was more joy than sorrow, the former having rightly foreseen that he would have dealt hardly with them. None of them could guess that the fall of the strong man would carry them all with it and engulf them in a world catastrophe.

Franz Ferdinand will remain portrayed in history as a man who either loved or hated. But his tragic end at the side of his wife, who would not allow death to separate them, throws a mild and conciliatory light on the whole life of this extraordinary man, whose warm heart to the very last was devoted to his Fatherland and duty.

Specifically the suggestion that a surviving FF would not have agreed to place the A-H military under German command and that a surviving FF, unlike his nephew Karl, would have actually died fighting once revolution would have arrived in A-H?

 

[sillygoose]

Interesting.

What do you think of Ottokar von Czernin's suggestions here?

The Project Gutenberg eBook of In the World War, by Count Ottokar Czernin

Specifically the suggestion that a surviving FF would not have agreed to place the A-H military under German command and that a surviving FF, unlike his nephew Karl, would have actually died fighting once revolution would have arrived in A-H?

I think that is one man's perspective and one who is not accounting for how the war and defeats would have altered FF's perspectives. I think it is a perspective to be considered, but hardly definitive.

 

[WolfBear]

I think that is one man's perspective and one who is not accounting for how the war and defeats would have altered FF's perspectives. I think it is a perspective to be considered, but hardly definitive.

Makes sense. So, there's really no way to say for sure, eh? You don't have any better guesses as to what FF would have done?

The idea about FF resisting putting his army under German command does sound sensible, though--no? Or will the war change his perspective about that as well?

 

[sillygoose]

Makes sense. So, there's really no way to say for sure, eh? You don't have any better guesses as to what FF would have done?

The idea about FF resisting putting his army under German command does sound sensible, though--no? Or will the war change his perspective about that as well?

There is no way to tell how he'd react to the war and disasters that happened. Conrad for instance gave the appearance of being quite different from how he ultimately handled the war effort.

I think repeated military defeats under his handpicked CoS would alter FF's perspectives.

 

[WolfBear]

There is no way to tell how he'd react to the war and disasters that happened. Conrad for instance gave the appearance of being quite different from how he ultimately handled the war effort.

I think repeated military defeats under his handpicked CoS would alter FF's perspectives.

But even so, Conrad still displeased FF in the pre-WWI era by being a hawk, which the dovish FF did not like. So, being disappointed by Conrad was not a new thing for FF.

Yes, very possibly.

 

[sillygoose]

But even so, Conrad still displeased FF in the pre-WWI era by being a hawk, which the dovish FF did not like. So, being disappointed by Conrad was not a new thing for FF.

Sure, and was likely intending to replace him, but in the context of the war with the performance of the generals being generally quite bad his views could very well change.

 

[WolfBear]

Sure, and was likely intending to replace him, but in the context of the war with the performance of the generals being generally quite bad his views could very well change.

Change for the worse?

 

[sillygoose]

Change for the worse?

There isn't a whole lot on the guy who might have replaced him (can't remember the name at the moment, started with a B I think), so at worst it likely would be more a wash. Once the war broke out though Conrad might have gotten replaced at FF's urging sooner and someone with proven success in the field replacing him. No guarantee of that though.

 

[WolfBear]

There isn't a whole lot on the guy who might have replaced him (can't remember the name at the moment, started with a B I think), so at worst it likely would be more a wash. Once the war broke out though Conrad might have gotten replaced at FF's urging sooner and someone with proven success in the field replacing him. No guarantee of that though.

Did the guy who FF want to replace Conrad with have the last name of Esterházy?

 

[sillygoose]

Did the guy who FF want to replace Conrad with have the last name of Esterházy?

LOL no. No way that FF would pick a Hungarian for the job.

 

[WolfBear]

LOL no. No way that FF would pick a Hungarian for the job.

Yeah, could present loyalty issues if FF will ever need to impose martial law onto Hungary.

 

[WolfBear]

@sillygoose I have a question for you: Just how plausible would it be in your own honest opinion for a surviving Franz Ferdinand to go to war in the future over the fate of the Ottoman Empire if war does NOT break out in 1914? Assuming that Germany itself also goes to war over the fate of the Ottoman Empire during the same time and on the same side as A-H, that is.

FWIW, this TL has something along these lines:

For 1916:

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

September, 27
Notaras Incident : the Notaras, a cargo vessel voguing from Sebastopol to Piraeus under Greek flag, is stopped and detained by Ottoman customs at Gallipoli; the ship illegally contains large caches of illegally purchased Russian weapons, including pieces for a Russian landship. The whole crew is detained by Ottoman authorities under suspicion of weapon smuggling for the Greek Army.

September, 28
Notaras Incident : the Greek government asks for the release of the Notaras’ crew.

September, 29
Notaras Incident : The Ottoman Empire launches a criminal investigation upon the weapons found aboard the Notaras.

September, 30
Notaras Incident : Russia denies having purposedly offered undeclared weapons to Greece.

October, 1
Ramon Maximiliano Valdes suceeds Belisario Porras Barahona as President of Panama.

October, 3
Elections are held to the newly created Philippine Senate.

October, 4
Notaras Incident : Greek Prime Minister Eletherios Venizelos makes a speech in front of the Parliament, advocating retribution should the Notaras crew not be returned safely to Greece.

October, 5
Antonio José de Almeida succeeds Afonso Costa as Prime Minister of Portugal.

October, 7
Notaras Incident : Greece offers a week-long ultimatum to the Ottoman Empire to release the Notaras’ crew; else, the detention of Greek citizens would be considered as an act of war by the Greek government.

October, 8-October, 18
Notaras Incident : anti-Greek pogroms happen throughout the Ottoman Empire due to the Greek ultimatum.

October, 9
Field Marshal and Governor-General and Korea, Count Terauchi Masatake, becomes Prime Minister of Japan, succeeding Prince Okuma Shigenobu.

October, 10
Notaras Incident : the United Kingdom warns Germany, Russia, Greece and the Ottoman Empire that the opening of the Dardanelles’ Straits, even in case of war, is a major concern for the British government.

The Rikken Doshikai, the Chuseikai and the Koyu Club merge and establish the Kensaikai, a new opposition party in Japan.

October, 10-November, 4
Serbian-Bulgarian War, Battle of Kosovo : Bulgaria defeats Serbia and Montenegro.

October, 11
Mehmed Talaat Pascha becomes Great Vizier of the Ottoman Empire, replacing Said Halim Pascha.

Otto, King of Bavaria from 1886 to 1913, dies.

October, 12
At the end of a very bitter election, Hipolito Yrigoyen is elected President of Argentina, the first hailing from the Radical Civic Union.

Russia mobilizes troops alongside the Russian-Ottoman border.

October, 14
Greece declares war upon the Ottoman Empire.

October, 15
The Ottoman Empire closes the Dardanelles’ Straits to all ships, of any nationality.

October, 16
Greek-Ottoman War : Constantinople, capital of the Ottoman Empire, is bombed.

Due to the passage of universal suffrage, an anticipated election takes place in Belgium, seeing a Liberal breakthrough : Paul Hymans succeeds Charles de Broqueville as Prime Minister.

October, 17
Germany declares its neutrality on the Greek-Ottoman conflict.

October, 18
Trabzon Incident : during an anti-Greek pogrom in Trabzon, rioters flanked by Turkish soldiers storm the Russian Consulate where ethnic Greeks had taken refuge. The Russian consul is lynched and killed during the storming.

October, 19
Trabzon Incident : the Ottoman Empire proposes financial compensation and free crossing of the Dardanelles to Russia.

October, 21
Trabzon Incident : Czar of Russia Nicholas II delivers his infamous “Third Rome Speech” where he stresses the strategic and symbolic importance of Constantinople for Russia and the despicable attitude of the Sublime Porte.

October, 23
Trabzon Incident : during a speech to the Reichstag where he outlines the risk poised by a Russian-Ottoman War to the Bagdadbahn and German economic interests, German Chancellor Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg is heckled by SPD parliamentarians.

October, 24
Trabzon Incident : Bonar Law stresses in the House of Commons the risk of a major European war.

October, 25
Trabzon Incident : France officially assures Russia of its support.

Birth control activist Margaret Sanger is arrested in Brooklyn, nine days after the opening of a family planning and birth control clinic, due to a law prohibiting distribution of contraceptives in the State of New York.

October, 26
Trabzon Incident : Germany warns against any steps taken by the Russian Army in Armenia and threats made to the Bagdadbahn works.

October, 27
The SPD imposes the vote of a motion of non-confidence against Theobald von Bethmann-Hollweg who resigns, the day he was poised to ask for parliamentarian rallying for protection of the Bagdadbahn.

October, 28
SPD leaders Friedrich Ebert and Hugo Haase ask the Kaiser for the appointment of a Social Democrat Chancellor, the maintaining of peace and an enactment of the Erfurt Program.

October, 29
IPP MP John Redmond is arrested in front of Westminster Palace while he was calling the Cabinet to rescind martial law in Ireland.

The Russian Ambassador in London assures Great Britain that, in the event of a Russian-Ottoman War, control of the Dardanelles would be offered to Greece should the Ottoman Empire be defeated.

October, 30
Greek-Ottoman War: Serbia and Bulgaria declare their neutrality.

Feng Guozhang is elected Vice President of China.

October, 31
Greek-Ottoman War: A French military mission arrives in Athens.

November, 2
German Kaiser Wilhelm II refuses the SPD’s demands and asks Zentrum leader Georg von Hertling to form a new government.

November, 6
France partially mobilizes in Lorraine, at the French-German Border. The French government assures its Belgian counterpart it has nothing to fear from their troops.

November, 7
United States presidential election : President Woodrow Wilson (Democrat) is re-elected in landslide against Elihu Root (Republican) and Hiram Johnson (Progressive) ; Democrats hold both houses of Congress.

November, 9
Greek-Ottoman War: Nicholas II meets representatives from Armenian nationalist parties Dashnak, Armenakan and Huntchak.

November, 10
Greek-Ottoman War: US President Woodrow Wilson proposes to mediate on the Russian-Ottoman Conflict.

November, 11
Nicholas II announces his cousin, Grand Duke Nicholas Nikolaevich, will assume overall comandment of the Russian Army.

November, 12
Germany evacuates personnel on the Bagdadbahn works.

November, 13
Russia partially mobilizes.

Emiliano Zapata defeats and kills General Pablo Gonzalez in San Cristobal de Las Casas, in Mexico.

November, 14
Greek-Ottoman War: Russia gives a two-day ultimatum to the Ottoman Empire to cede to Greek territorial claims and to give full independance to Armenia and autonomy to Christian minorities within the Empire.

November, 15
Georg von Hertling becomes Chancellor of Germany, forming a Zentrum/FVP/KP/NLP government.

Henryk Sienkiewicz, Nobel Prize in Literature 1905, dies in Vevey, Switzerland, aged 70.

November, 17
Russia declares war upon the Ottoman Empire.

November, 18
Chancellor von Hertling’s general policy declaration in front of the Reichstag stresses the economic and national interest Germany has on the Bagdadbahn and affirms any move against its outline would prove an act of war against Germany territory.

November, 19
Russian-Ottoman War: Russia invades Armenia.

November, 20
Serbian-Bulgarian War : the Bulgarian Army enters Skopje.

November, 21
Emperor Francis Joseph of Austria-Hungary dies ; he is succeeded by his nephew, Franz Ferdinand, who takes the titles of Emperor Ferdinand II of Austria and King Ferdinand VI of Hungary and immediately affirms his loyalty to the German-Austro-Hungarian alliance.

November, 24
Germany mobilizes.

November, 25
Germany offers France to cede to Germany military redoubts in Toul and Verdun during the duration of a Russian-German conflict, in exchange for no war.

In a referendum, Uruguay adopts a collective presidency system, establishing a National Council of Administration of nine members that would replace the office of President of the Republic, based on the Swiss executive.

November, 26
Austria-Hungary mobilizes.

November, 27
Germany declares war upon Russia and Greece, trigerring the Great European War.

November, 28
Great European War: Austria-Hungary declares war upon Russia and Greece. Germany takes Kalisz, Czestochowa and Bedzin in Russian Poland.

November, 29
Great European War : Battle of Libau. Russia defeats Germany.

Alexei Bobrinsky becomes Prime Minister of Russia, replacing Piotr Bark, viewed as to much of a germanophile.

A military government under Captain Harry Shepard Knapp is installed in Santo Domingo.

November, 30
Great European War : the United Kingdom declares its neutrality.

December, 1
French missionnary and Berber expert Charles de Foucauld is murdered in his fortress in Tamanghasset by bandits.

December, 2
France mobilizes. An attempt by SFIO leader Jean Jaurès to wage a general strike fails due to massive enthusiasm for the war in the French populace.

December, 3
Great European War : France declares war upon Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottoman Empire. The date is generally considered as the official beginning of the Great European War.

Russia invades East Prussia.

December, 4
Great European War : Austria-Hungary attacks Kielce and Lublin.

Maximilian Hussarek von Heinlein replaces Karl von Stürgkh as Minister-President of Austria, who has been sacked by the new Emperor; similarly, Field Marshal Franz Conrad von Hötzendorf is removed from his position as Chief of the General Staff, replaced by the Emperor himself. Count Istvan Tisza, Minister-President of Hungary, insists he won’t resign to comply to his King.

December, 6
Great European War : France invades South Alsace.

Russia fully mobilizes.

 

[sillygoose]

@sillygoose I have a question for you: Just how plausible would it be in your own honest opinion for a surviving Franz Ferdinand to go to war in the future over the fate of the Ottoman Empire if war does NOT break out in 1914? Assuming that Germany itself also goes to war over the fate of the Ottoman Empire during the same time and on the same side as A-H, that is.

FWIW, this TL has something along these lines:

For 1916:

For Want of A Sandwich - A Franz Ferdinand Lives Wikibox TL

A complete recension of all entries in the TL

www.alternatehistory.com

I think A-H would support Germany out of necessity and due to not wanting Entente power extension in the Near East and Balkans as a result.

 

[WolfBear]

I think A-H would support Germany out of necessity and due to not wanting Entente power extension in the Near East and Balkans as a result.

That makes sense. FF was obviously war-averse but if Germany sends more of its troops to the East from the beginning and makes it clear that it's pursuing clear and limited war goals, then FF might come on board, especially if Britain will be (and remain) neutral in this war. FF would likely want this war to be concluded as soon as realistically possible without significantly compromising the CPs' war aims, however.