Might I ask where you’re getting into those numbers for the Cardassian and Klingon fleets?
The old Dominion War Sourcebook. It's one of the few ST books that go into numbers. It's a really good and well written sourcebook actually. I would argue that whoever wrote it was very strategically minded. That said, it does have a bit of flaw in fairly conservative fleet numbers, but to be honest almost every franchise I have ever encountered has had problems with that. Any power that has established itself within its own solar system is going to be downright massive compared to any ST or even SW power in terms of fleet sizes.
While I would agree that the navigational deflector isn't going to do much good against a MAC round, that's more because nav deflectors were never designed for that - they're for the small things, like dust.
True, although we know the deflector dishes found on the GCS can handle exajoules of energy being poured out of them directly from their warpcores.
Big stuff is handled by tractor beams, which do in fact have a repulsion mode. Depending on range and closing velocities, tractor beams could play merry hell with any MAC round.
Possible, but again, I think that's too risky. And that sort of innovation is really not how the Cardassians work.
Well, that's the question, isn't it? MACs are said to be significantly superior to the stated quote, but no hard numbers are given. Though Infinity did shoot a ground target that detonated with stated 50MT yield but that was holding back. But solid numbers remain elusive and up to interpretation. But the numbers we did have before are no longer canon and are considered a very low tier outlier. Trek is also guilty of this too.
You know both can be correct?
The 58 kiloton yield comes from a frigate firing at full power. Cruisers and battleships can absolutely have a higher output, especially since the limiting factor is generally going to come down to the length of the barrel. The longer the barrel, the more time you have to accelerate the round.
So overall, can the Cardassians win? Depends on what their objectives are. If those objectives are limited and they're looking to take some border worlds, they'll succeed brilliantly and beyond their wildest expectations. Does that mean conquering the full UNSC? They'll fail beyond their worst projections.
Yes, for the most part, UNSC is is less advanced than Trek powers, particularly in several key areas. But they make up for it with sheer mass of force.
It's a tall order for the Cardassians to swallow up the entire UNSC, that's true. And you're right that a lot of it comes down to needing the occupational troops to do that. Those things can be fixed though. Although the Cardassian military is rather small, that is by design, not lack of manpower. The Cardassians could draft two billion young men and women into service to serve as occupational troops. Now, that takes time. Time that will most assuredly slow Cardssia's expansion.
But Cardassia can play for time. Let's try and nail down the advantages of both powers.
Cardassia
- Highly Sophisticated Sensors -- Galor's have a suggested range of around 17 LY, according to LUG sources. In the show, we know the GCS itself could cover a full sector in one day--a sector extending out to 20 LY. Cardassians, being a sort of Chinese tech level compared to the UFP, would make sense coming in at 17 LY.
- Very Accurate Weapon Systems -- Phasers and disruptors from large ships can regularly reach out to about 100 km. Smaller ships are of course limited to much closer ranges, but even those tend to be in the 10s of km range. In comparison, the average frigate's effective MAC range is at best 15-30 km against a Trek ship.
- STL Speed/Acceleration -- Absolutely goes to the Cardassians. A GCS can move at 10 km/sec. Galors, even if slower, are going to have comparable accelerations. And within two hours, these ships can achieve .25c as their standard operating speed, but have been known to push it up to .75c in certain situations.
- Energy Shields -- Reduces the stress placed upon the ship's hull to perform.
- Greater Applied AI -- Cardassian computer technology is very, very good at performing narrow, specific tasks. Although again, CU technology lags behind UFP, UFP tricorders can effortlessly hack early 90s computers and Voyager itself could brute hack any modern day encryption within an hour. The reason behind such speeds is that ST ships actually run their computers in low-powered warp fields to speed up their calculation capabilities. They are literally not limited by lightspeed in their calculations.
- Greater Troop Mobility -- The Cardassians can move around a planet in a matter of minutes. If a Cardassian strike team wanted to go from Moscow to Washington DC, it would literally take about 5 minutes from calling it in to arriving. A pelican's maximum speed is 903 km/h or Mach .7, which is very, very fast. It would still take the 8.65 hours to cross that same distance. These speeds aren't even comparable. Even things like tanks and skimmers could possibly be beamed around, as we've seen things like shuttles and fighters beamed around before. To be able to redeploy those in such time would essentially put Cardassian power anywhere on the planet in a matter of minutes.
- Greater Armor Mobility -- Even ignoring transporters, skimmers can achieve a maximum speed of 25,000 kph. They could relocate from Moscow to DC in roughly 20 minutes. That's not even comparing it to an actual warship in orbit, which have an acceleration of 10 km/sec. A Galor could be over any location it chooses within a similar timeframe.
- Greater Troop Defense -- A Cardassian base is going to be all but impenetrable to any sort of attack. We're talking about sensors both on the base and in orbit that can pick up human life signs. We're talking about a both ground and orbital weapons platforms that can smash any army. We're talking about energy shields that can protect from any form of artillery that is not nuclear. The absolute only chance the UNSC has of even touching these bases is through terrorist activities and other forms of asymmetric warfare. And that sort of effort can take decades to wear a Cardassian occupation force down. If ever.
- Greater Troop Weapons -- No real argument here. Phaser rifles on their own, even the more power limited Cardassian designs (no more than 1 MW, if that), are going to seriously mess up Scorpion tank. And of course, that doesn't account for more powerful heavy weapons that the Cardassians will employ, such as artillery and heavy phaser banks. Indeed, we know that Dukat rigged up a small phaser device to auto-fire on any target that wasn't a Cardassian. Skimmers carry more than enough power to blow a Scorpion tank to hell.
- Greater Social Unity -- The Cardassians have a strong social unity than the UNSC. That isn't to say that it was always unified, but even after Dukat and the Civilian Council took over the Union, the rest of the people fell in line in relatively short order. Going off memory, it took less than a year for the Cardassians to fully reorganize themselves under the civilian government. This is of course, undermined in their occupied space where they rule over Bajor and now the DMZ colonies that contain humans. (Who may actively aid the UNSC, if ever given the chance)
- More Sophisticated Industrial Base -- The Cardassians have some level of industrial replicators, although these are very much well behind the UFP's and we know even they were limited impart due to power consumption. Still, automation within a relatively modern UFP would mean a great deal of work being done by machine, although we do know there is a great deal of physical manpower still involved. That said, the Cardassians appear to have a similar industrial base as the UNSC; that is to say that it somewhat focuses on supply chains. The difference is that the Cardassian system is an imperial system; so it's a great deal of resource extraction from the occupied and colonized world to the core worlds. This requires that the Cardassian protect shipping and the actual worlds they come from. While some of this is alleviated by ships carrying defensive weapons and orbital defense platforms, you sometimes just need a space force handy to deal with raiders, pirates, and invaders. Cardassia does however, present less exposure thanks to its replicator technology. And indeed, short term solutions can come from artificial food processors and rapid building of facilities. But it is undoubtedly true that if Cardassia loses inputs from its colonies and occupied worlds, it will suffer.
UNSC
- Greater General AI -- By far the biggest advantage the UNSC has, General AI is something the UNSC beats a lot of sci-fi powers on, although in the case of Star Trek, it seems that this is more out of preference, due to an intense distrust of AI. Unstable AI similar to the UNSC was available to the UFP in the 23rd century. And the Federation was moving into General AI programs of a more limited nature with their EMH programs. But as far as it has been applied to the military, the UNSC by far outshines them all.
- Higher FTL Potential -- The UNSC on average can travel ~2 LY a day. Compared to the most UFP and Cardassian ships, which generally only move at about 1 LY. The UFP can shortly match or exceed those speeds for a day or so, in some cases a few days--but the Cardassians can't even match it and can only sustain those higher speeds for about two days. The downside is that Slipspace travel has a weird sort of topology, so sometimes planets that are closer in real space are in reality, farther away. That would still put it roughly on par with most ST powers though.
- Greater Ground Force Experience -- It's not unfair to say that by TNG/DS9, most powers within the Alpha-Beta sphere have allowed their ground forces to wither on the vine. For the most part, it's simply isn't necessary for them. It's comparable to modern military powers who being defended by the US, have no need for a fully functional military. Although these institutions are alive within the ST setting, the UNSC undoubtedly has suffered from less atrophy than the Cardassians have. That will undoubtedly aid the UNSC, as the Cardassians are looking to occupy, not simply exterminate the population.
- Greater Ground Force Integration -- ST powers, having the luxury of transporters, powerful rifles, and even tactical-nuke style mortar grenaes, are not as well integrated with their armor as they should be. The Cardassians will arguably have a greater amount of experience in this matter, due to their occupation of Bajor and the tidbits we get about their skimmers working with their troops, but it is without question that a great deal is still placed on troops with small arms.
- Greater Industrial Base -- The UNSC undoubtedly has the greater industrial base potential, just from having close to 800 colonized worlds. Indeed, it follows the sort of gangling supply chains that modern world economies follow, with entire worlds having only a handful of industries that they seem to focus in, within the range of agricultural, industrial, and energy exports. That supplies the UNSC with a great deal of efficiency. Everyone does what they're good at. The flaw with such supply chains is that they need to operate within a safe environment. Take out the agricultural worlds and people begin to starve. Take out an industrial world anywhere within the supply chain and the entire supply chain may collapse. The Cardassians won't allow the UNSC to maintain such supply chains; they will intentionally target them. But while those supply chains are working, the UNSC will always have a greater pool of industry to draw upon.
Overall, I see the Cardassians easily taking nearby border worlds, although I expect the fighting to be intense. As the Cardassians face more and more resistance, they'll begin to reach out with their intelligence service, the Obsidian Order and of course, simple scout vessels. Once Central Command maps out the UNSC's supply chains, the Central Command is going to immediately disrupt them. Agricultural worlds that are far away are likely to be simply bombed, while those closer to the Cardassian border will be conquered and occupied. An agricultural world is probably going to have a smaller population that the Cardassians can control and having a built-in food producer under Cardassian control will continue to feed the Cardassian population. Win-win. Further out and the Cardassians can't hold those worlds and it's better to just deny them to the UNSC.
Industrial worlds are going to suffer general raids and strategic bombing to take them out of the show for as long as possible. The more pain Central Command can inflict upon the UNSC's supply chains, the weaker they become. And while they're doing this, the Obsidian Order will work hard to fracture the UNSC from within. They can disguise their operatives as humans with shocking accuracy and work to ferment terrorist cells, even providing Cardassian weaponry to the terrorists. The Cardassians don't even need the terrorists to succeed, they just need them to weaken the cohesive elements of the UNSC.
Earth and Reach will be relatively early targets. Reach because it is the military heart of the UNSC and Earth because it is the political heart. Expect the Cardassians to bomb it to hell and back. Earth will require a different approach; the population is far too large for the Cardassians to simply invade it and it's in the middle of UNSC territory. By any logical nature of expansion, all resources (including military!) will flow into the Sol system. Even with their technological advantage, Central Command would not be able to hold it and doing so would put a very real risk, as Earth is likely a good 80 LY from the UNSC border. Which means it's probably at least a 80-100 LY away from the closest military base. The supply chain for that could be as high as four months crossing hostile space. The full supply chain needed to support an invasion force at Sol would probably be closer to eight months. Needless to say, trying to take Earth by force early on would be a colossal mistake.
The Cardassians could perform raids however, but should they do so, they may cause strong patriotism to take hold within the UNSC, which is the exact opposite of what they want. Especially if they take out a population center. Rather, the raids should be focused more on destroying military installations. Primarily though, Earth should be the playground for the Obsidian Order, which can work to undermine the local politicians, which in turn can cause widespread destabilization within the UNSC itself. The Obsidian Order could and should play both sides. The agents in the inner colonies can help fan the flames for the outer colonies, while the agents in the outer colonies push for radical responses.
With the UNSC internally fracturing and externally suffering heavy losses from Cardassian pressure, the UNSC is likely to lose full control of its outer colonies and suffer political infighting within its inner colonies. The Cardassians can then (slowly) take the territory they want piecemeal rather than risk fighting a fully mobilized and operational UNSC.
The UNSC isn't going to go down without a fight though. ONI isn't going to just sit around while the Cardassians break up the UNSC. In regards to what ONI can do about it--apart from trying to work counter-intelligence, there isn't much. The Cardassians will be able to insert themselves into UNSC space as soon as they obtain some UNSC civilian transports. That's not to say the Obsidian Order won't be caught. They will. But the general direction will be on the Obsidian Order's side. In skill and brutality, they're second only to Section 31. With the technological edge, they're going to be a nightmare for ONI.
Of course, ONI can do the same to the Cardassians. There isn't just the Bajorans who would jump at UNSC assistance, it's the humans located in the former DMZ. With access to some Forerunner tech, the UNSC was able to produce a few cloaked ships, so it's possible for them to get into Cardassian space and deploy ONI agents and even Spartans to help in the DMZ. The DMZ is by far the greatest asset ONI has, but it's also a perilous one. The population within those colonies is not exceptionally high and Central Command may deem that it's just better to exterminate the remaining humans than it is to manage them. That said, those humans are going to be a treasure trove for ONI as far as intelligence goes; most of the people in those colonies know where Cardassia is on a map and a fair number (ie the Maquis) know where all their military assets are. And although the technological transfer ONI would obtain is going to be limited, it's still going to be valuable. Indeed, with the industrial might of the UNSC and some of the technological transfers from the Maquis, the Maquis might be able to even field a handful of capital ships--although as with all things, ONI is going to take that technology and shove it into the UNSC's own military structure as quickly and effectively as possible. The Maquis will only be given enough to keep them floating.
The biggest intelligence score would be if they connected with the Bajoran resistance. That's a very, very tall order. But the very nature of the occupation means that the Bajorans have deep penetration into how the Cardassians think and act. The UFP's experience was somewhat limited outside of a few officers or people and the Maquis exist mostly within their own narrative. The Bajorans have real experience and expertise.
Overall though, I think the UNSC would crack before the Cardassian Union. Outside of the DMZ and Bajor, Cardassia is not going to be easily divided or penetrated by ONI operatives. And we know that the Union is economically viable without those territories. What's more, they're unlikely to actually lose those territories from ONI operations, but rather the operations will serve only to buy time for the UNSC. And it's time that Central Command will not allow them to have.
That said, conquest of half of the UNSC is probably going to be a decades long process and assumes that the Cardassians will forever retain it. (They won't) Still, I'd consider them to be the winners in this scenario. The Cardassians will mantain their practice of strip mining their new colonies and as technology transfers pour into the UNSC, the locals will eventually become both more fed up with their new overlords and more able to fight them. Since the UNSC's size is roughly equal to the Cardassian Union and has a higher population, their culture won't simply be erased or driven into the dirt, as might be possible with a power that has but one planet. (ie, Bajor actually had a handful of colonies before the Cardassians arrived--and we saw how hard it was for the Cardassians to integrate those resources)
Overall, the Cardassians will probably only hold about 25% of that territory after perhaps five to seven decades of occupation. The escaping human territories will probably form their own nation, but retain relatively close ties to the surviving UNSC. What will form is a sort of buffer state between the two. In times of strength, the Cardassians will reach out and devour the former colonies they controlled, while the surviving UNSC will grow strong enough to prevent a full-on conquest by the Cardassians, although the Cardassians obtaining slispace drive would greatly expand their reach. Without a doubt though, the Cardassians would become the major power of the area. The UNSC would probably be regulated to playing second fiddle.
