The future Napoleon III dies young

[WolfBear]

What if the future Napoleon III would have died young, specifically sometime in or before 1847? What effects would this have had on post-1848 French history? Would there have been a French monarchical restoration in the 1850s in this TL? If so, under whom?

Apparently Henri, Count of Chambord (the Legitimist claimant to the French throne) was willing to compromise on the French flag in his younger years with this proposed version:

Henri, Count of Chambord - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

It was only after it was clear that he and his wife will permanently never have any children that he changed his mind in regards to any compromise on the French flag. Anyway, though, would the Orleanists actually be willing to support Henri's claim to the French throne in the 1850s in this TL if it will look like Henri and his wife might still eventually have an heir of their own?

And what foreign policies would a Bonaparte-free France have pursued in the 1850s, 1860s, and early 1870s? For instance, would both Italian unification and German unification have still occurred on schedule in this TL?

Thoughts on all of this? @Circle of Willis

 

[Circle of Willis]

Well, Cavaignac would probably win the 1848 election instead since the Orleanists had literally just been overthrown and the Legitimists were a non-factor in that election. Whether he (a moderate republican who had led the suppression of proto-socialist in the June Days) can sustain the Second Republic, considering how quickly and easily it was dismantled by Louis-Napoleon - I'm not sure. What I can be reasonably sure of is that he will damn well try, since apparently he was so committed to liberal principles that he refused his friends' advice to launch a coup against Louis-Napoleon even if the latter was going to use his democratically-obtained powers to become Emperor IRL.

I think there was still too much bad blood between the Legitimists and Orleanists for them to unite behind Chambord in the 1850s. Back when I was still active on AH.com I came across speculation that the flag thing was just an excuse for Chambord - by 1870 quite certain that he will never have a child of his own - to avoid potentially passing the French throne to the House of Orleans (which he, like the other mainline Bourbons, despised for being revolutionary profiteers and usurpers) at any cost, which I think makes sense.

I'd imagine a republican France might be friendlier to Garibaldi and willing to use its power to help create a sister-republic in Italy, rather than go down Napoleon III's convoluted route to creating a Savoy-ruled kingdom while also preserving the Papal State around Rome. If Chambord somehow does successfully become Henri V of France, I can't imagine he would lift a finger to help Garibaldi at all and may instead commit France's might to helping maintain the status quo on the peninsula if the Carbonari still try to off him (as Felice Orsini tried with Nappy). At the very least, by openly and completely allying with Austria to keep the Italians down Henri's France would avoid diplomatically isolating itself and thus be a less tempting target for Bismarck down the line.

 

[WolfBear]

I think there was still too much bad blood between the Legitimists and Orleanists for them to unite behind Chambord in the 1850s. Back when I was still active on AH.com I came across speculation that the flag thing was just an excuse for Chambord - by 1870 quite certain that he will never have a child of his own - to avoid potentially passing the French throne to the House of Orleans (which he, like the other mainline Bourbons, despised for being revolutionary profiteers and usurpers) at any cost, which I think makes sense.

Yeah, that's my take on Henri and the flag as well. In the 1850s, Henri might have still believed that he could have an heir/son of his own and thus might have been more willing to compromise on the flag issue. But of course it's very far from clear that the Orleanists would actually support Henri in the 1850s since if they succeed, then it would be very far from clear whether the Orleanists would ever actually be able to reacquire the French throne for themselves afterwards.

I'd imagine a republican France might be friendlier to Garibaldi and willing to use its power to help create a sister-republic in Italy, rather than go down Napoleon III's convoluted route to creating a Savoy-ruled kingdom while also preserving the Papal State around Rome. If Chambord somehow does successfully become Henri V of France, I can't imagine he would lift a finger to help Garibaldi at all and may instead commit France's might to helping maintain the status quo on the peninsula if the Carbonari still try to off him (as Felice Orsini tried with Nappy). At the very least, by openly and completely allying with Austria to keep the Italians down Henri's France would avoid diplomatically isolating itself and thus be a less tempting target for Bismarck down the line.

Could we see a Bismarck/Prussian-Italian nationalist alliance down the line, perhaps?

As for supporting republicans in Italy, which Italian monarchies will a republican France attempt to overthrow? All of them? Because that could result in France becoming quite isolated in Europe, perhaps even in the various European monarchies joining forces to defeat France just like they did less than half a century earlier with Napoleon.