The post-WWII peace settlement in a no-Fall of France TL?

[WolfBear]

What would the post-WWII peace settlement in a no-Fall of France TL have looked like? Specifically:

-How much does Poland expand in the West?
-Does Czechoslovakia regain its independence, become reunited, and get the Sudetenland back?
-Are there extremely massive expulsions of Germans in Eastern Europe?
-Does Italy eventually enter the war on the Allied side?
-Does the Soviet Union eventually enter the war on the Allied side?
-Does the United States eventually enter the war on the Allied side?
-Are there any German territorial cessions in the west as well?
-How much reparations does Germany have to pay?
-Does Germany still wind up divided?
-Just how thorough is the post-WWII de-Nazification in Germany?
-Do we see anything comparable to NATO after the end of WWII?
-Is there still a Cold War after the end of WWII?
-What happens with post-WWII decolonization in this TL?
-What does Japan do during and after WWII in this TL?

Et cetera.

Thoughts on all of this? @sillygoose @stevep @Skallagrim @History Learner @Zyobot @Chiron @raharris1973

 

[raharris1973]

Other interlocutors' opinions may differ, but I for one believe there is more than one plausible answer to almost all of your 14 questions.

There is a prefacing question that needs be answered before answering your 14, and even that could conceivably go more than one way.

France does not fall. Got it. I accept that as the premise. France does not surrender or lose its sovereignty on the mainland. (let's agree that no Vichy and continued resistance from Algeria wouldn't qualify, that would be a 'France Fights On' scenario instead). However, the question remains, does the war end with a compromise peace, leaving neither France, Britain nor Germany defeated? Or does the war end with France and Britain, and any allies they have, imposing terms, whether conditional or unconditional on Germany.

The first possibility of the two might not have occurred to you at all, most of the 14 questions seem to suppose the Franco-British in a position to dictate terms as much as they were in 1918-1919, if not in total occupation of Germany. But we cannot rule out a stalemated war, at least in my view, and that shapes things like the chances for restoration of Czech independence.

 

[WolfBear]

Other interlocutors' opinions may differ, but I for one believe there is more than one plausible answer to almost all of your 14 questions.

There is a prefacing question that needs be answered before answering your 14, and even that could conceivably go more than one way.

France does not fall. Got it. I accept that as the premise. France does not surrender or lose its sovereignty on the mainland. (let's agree that no Vichy and continued resistance from Algeria wouldn't qualify, that would be a 'France Fights On' scenario instead). However, the question remains, does the war end with a compromise peace, leaving neither France, Britain nor Germany defeated? Or does the war end with France and Britain, and any allies they have, imposing terms, whether conditional or unconditional on Germany.

The first possibility of the two might not have occurred to you at all, most of the 14 questions seem to suppose the Franco-British in a position to dictate terms as much as they were in 1918-1919, if not in total occupation of Germany. But we cannot rule out a stalemated war, at least in my view, and that shapes things like the chances for restoration of Czech independence.

Well, you can try responding to this question in several ways. I do agree with you that if Hitler and the Nazis are overthrown, then there would indeed be some potential for a compromise peace, especially if the Anglo-French lack the necessary willpower to endure the necessary casualties to fight this war to Berlin without either the Americans or the Soviets helping them out--and frankly, Soviet help would likely be viewed as being undesirable since it means an end to any hopes of genuine restored freedom in Poland after the end of the war. But it all depends on what kind of peace terms the Schwarze Kapelle would actually be willing to offer the Anglo-French. I would presume that they would offer the Anglo-French something similar to Hitler's 16 Point ultimatum in regards to Poland and of course a return to the status quo ante bellum everywhere else:

Original Sources - The German Ultimatum to Poland, August 30– 31, 1939

<h3>Historical Summary</h3><p>Toward the close of August 1939 Germany sought to force an early satisfaction of her demands on Poland for the return of Danzig and the Polish Corridor. While military preparations were being made on both sides and atrocity stories flourished, Great Britain strove...

www.originalsources.com

The Poles would be allowed to keep Gdynia even if they will lose the vote in the rest of the Corridor. But the vote will be done in a way that favors Germany--so, everyone who lived in the Polish Corridor in 1918 and their descendants could vote in this referendum but not the Poles who settled in the Polish Corridor after 1918. So, it would be a vote in the Polish Corridor as it looked like after almost 150 years of Germanization. Gdynia will be connected to the rest of Poland through an extraterritorial road if the rest of the Polish Corridor will vote for Germany, and ditto for Danzig if the Polish Corridor will vote for Poland.

The Schwarze Kapelle could say "See, the Poles get to keep their access to the sea and their main port city while the Polish Corridor is resolved in a manner that is satisfactory to everyone. Do you, Anglo-French, really want to endure another several hundred thousand military deaths in order to secure Danzig for Poland? Or would you prefer to save lives by ending this war with a compromise peace right now?"