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The Russian Constituent Assembly Election is held earlier in 1917, before the Bolsheviks are able to launch a coup of their own

WolfBear

Well-known member
What if the Russian Constituent Assembly Election is held earlier in 1917, before the Bolsheviks are able to launch a coup of their own? From the relevant article:


In May the political parties agreed on main principles of the election (proportional representation, universal suffrage and secret ballot). A special electoral commission was set up, composed of multiple lawyers and legal experts. The following month September 17, 1917 was set as the election date. The new Constituent Assembly was supposed to have its first meeting on September 30, 1917.[10]

What if they stuck to holding these elections in September 1917? I don't think that the Bolsheviks had the capacity to launch a new uprising/coup yet in September 1917, though I could be wrong in regards to this.

What would the subsequent effects of this have been?
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
Great question

Thanks! This does seem like the best bet to prevent the Bolsheviks from seizing power in Russia, at least if one wants to reject working with General Lavr Kornilov for fear that he would abolish all democracy in Russia if successful.
 

stevep

Well-known member
If such a thing did occur then the big parties would probably be the Social Revolutionaries [largely based in the country] Mensheviks [urban workers] and the more centralist Kadets. The Bolsheviks would probably pick up some votes but less than OTL although they might be concentrated in the military.

What sort of policies would this government follow? Probably seeking a negotiated end to the war and land reform. The former would cause problems for the allies, especially once they rejected any such peace - since it would still leave Germany with substantial gains even if it was prepared to give up all its western conquests - but they may not be able to do much. The latter would be an horror to the assorted conservative elements so you are likely to end up with some right wing 'White' rebellions but, unless they gain external support they are likely to be quickly repressed. [Possible questions here about the Czech Legion, which will want to fight but its likely to be allowed to travel east to Vladivostok and also Japan as to whether would it seek to 'support' a threatened imperial dynasty and hence intervene in the east?]

The other issue is would Germany accept say peace on the current front lines or would they insist on further gains? They would be sensible to do the former but we are talking about imperial Germany which while not as insane as its later Nazi version did have fairly frequent diversions from reality.

If so they would be able to get more troops from the east and a bit sooner - as their seeking to occupy less land - but probably can't attack on any large scale much earlier because an offensive in mid-winter would be very difficult. They probably have a bit more success than OTL but the logistics are against them, especially where their advancing across territory they devastated in their retreat ~14 months ago. As such 1918 is bloody but the CPs still go down. Which would have some impacts on the following peace as there's at least a possibility that Russia has some influence on the peace treaty. Even if not formally present it exists as a non-pariah state and if it avoids the civil war and following oppression is definitely going to be considered a player in the affairs of eastern Europe at least.

How Russia fails is the big issue. Its very difficult with such a vast country and little/no real experience to build a stable democratic state and it will be threatened from both extremes as Lenin and his gangsters won't want to give up their hopes of control while there will be a lot of unhappy army officers, landowners, clerics and special interest groups like the Cossack's. Also how does the government respond to demands for autonomy if not outright independent from assorted national groups.

One issue is it might be better for Russia - but probably worse for the western powers - if the election occurred before the Kerensky_offensive starts at the beginning of July. This would leave Russia in a better position to stabilize possibly although potentially a right wing coup against the government might be more dangerous. The army is somewhat less undermined and Lenin doesn't have the failure of the offensive and resultant unrest to boost his position.
 

raharris1973

Well-known member
Probably seeking a negotiated end to the war and land reform. The former would cause problems for the allies, especially once they rejected any such peace

This would cause a lot of unwelcome discussion among Allied publics about what is and what is not specifically worth fighting for.

since it would still leave Germany with substantial gains even if it was prepared to give up all its western conquests

German gains from whom? The Russians? At this point the Constituent Assembly is handing the Neo-Provisional Republican Government a mandate to negotiate peace but it is not certain the mandate authorizes them to give up national territory or a unilateral ceasefire.
 

WolfBear

Well-known member
This would cause a lot of unwelcome discussion among Allied publics about what is and what is not specifically worth fighting for.



German gains from whom? The Russians? At this point the Constituent Assembly is handing the Neo-Provisional Republican Government a mandate to negotiate peace but it is not certain the mandate authorizes them to give up national territory or a unilateral ceasefire.

But this discussion would be resolved with the 14 Points, as in real life, no?

I suppose that they could insist that they're only giving up territory to Germany with free and fair plebiscites supervised by impartial observers (the Swiss, perhaps?) and that they will refuse to accept the German terms if the Germans don't agree to such plebiscites?
 

stevep

Well-known member
This would cause a lot of unwelcome discussion among Allied publics about what is and what is not specifically worth fighting for.

Very true. As also in Germany and possibly especially Austria.

German gains from whom? The Russians? At this point the Constituent Assembly is handing the Neo-Provisional Republican Government a mandate to negotiate peace but it is not certain the mandate authorizes them to give up national territory or a unilateral ceasefire.

I was assuming that the priority for the new Russian government was peace so it could pick up the pieces of what was technically under its control. On the basis that imperial Germany would never be willing to consider returning the lands it and Austria had already conquered. Apart from the fact it would put the new Russia very close to places like Berlin more simply the German leadership was committed to the end to overwhelming victory and wouldn't consider any concession.

As such if Russia wants peace its going to have to concede at least the lands the CPs already hold. Which would be politically possibly because most/all of those lands are non-Russia in character and non-Orthodox. I suspect the issue would be what other terms Germany might seek to demand.

One other complication here is that Russian forces are in lands that weren't part of the empire in 1914. Chiefly I think in Anatolia although there seems to have been some Russian units in Iran and parts of what's now Iraq. They would probably be willing to give those up, although questions might be asked about the fate of the surviving Armenians in those territories but again would Enver Pasha be willing to accept just that or seek to demand more? OTL with the Ottoman state collapsing alongside the Russian one he and his supporters were seeking to establish a new empire stretching through the Caucasus region - and presumably parts of northern Iran into central Asia.

Elsewhere there were Russian forces in those parts of Romania still outside CP control although they were basically allies of the Romanians.
 

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