Whatever data you think is relevant.
Okay so as I was referring to the general, I ignored the primary. Basically, what I found in the general was that Trump's endorsement in a lot of cases wasn't a vote-winner *or* a deal-breaker on the face of it, because most of the candidates he endorsed were both 1) incumbents and 2) in safe GOP districts, and most of the rest were open seat but again, still safe R.
Of the 29 who weren't...three won, about six were in heavy Democrat districts with particularly notable Democrats (Maxine Waters, Ilhan Omar, you get the idea), and the rest narrowly lost. Though there was one (Madison Cawthorn) who defeated the Trump-backed candidate in NC-11 and wasn't endorsed until the general. And a lot of the districts in question were ones that the GOP only lost in 2018 after holding them for several prior cycles.
Who were those people who lost for having a Trump endorsement?
It's not so much "lost because they were endorsed by Trump" per se, though I can't find the story that the candidate I was thinking of (from Virginia I believe), so much as it is general dissatisfaction with Trump himself.
However, the GOP gains in the House were because of excellent GOP candidates.
FTFY. Looking over the actual electoral results, Trump himself appears to have had little impact, and in fact 2020 saw a huge spike in split ticket voting for the first time in several cycles, i.e., people voted for Biden but also voted for GOPers for the House and Senate. More on this in a second.
Trump does spell the end of the old GOP, which I think is where some of the 'Trump is killing the GOPs chances in 2022' come from, because old school country club Republicans would prefer to lose gracefully than win via 'incivility' as Trump did.
Not really. I mean, yes, the GOP is realigning because of the reality that the base has been ignored for a while and reacted to a guy who actually courted their votes. HOWEVER...
...the real issue is Trump THE INDIVIDUAL. Not his policies. Again, this is what I keep trying to point out. Despite the love he gets on this board, most Americans (even people who support his policies) actually can't stand the man and would rather he himself just go away and let someone with similar views but without the baggage (the non-stop tweets, stupid comments, and pointless provocations) take the reins.
But Trump, being Trump, is a narcissist and patently incapable of doing so. He HAS to be the center of attention. His track record is that he demands loyalty to him, but he doesn't return it. I don't mean "You have failed me" I mean he asks the literal impossible (like trying to order unconstitutional actions) and then gets pissy when people tell him no.
Not to mention the whole fiasco of January 6th which, whether you like it or not, much of the country does in fact blame him for causing. The average American doesn't actually like violence whether it's Antifa or QANon or whomever...they disapprove of all of them.
And the fact that Trump is busy holding grudges against people who don't back him and actively trying to undermine them (despite them being concerned more about their actual voters, that is, the people *who actually decide whether they hold office*) because his feelings were hurt.
My point is, infighting in the party only helps the Democrats. I, for one, would prefer to see the Republicans *win*, but so long as Trump keeps stirring shit up rather than letting the focus stay on Biden's various fuckups, that isn't going to happen.
Trump's massive popularity on here does not reflect the real world any more than certain other sites' hatred of him reflects it. But the fact of the matter is, Trump is disliked far more than he's liked, and if the GOP is going to make a comeback in 2022 and 2024, Trump is going to have to be a team player. As Trump is anything BUT a team player, though, you can see why I'm very worried about the GOP's chances.