ISOT US State (insert your fav/most hated) ISOTed to a long time ago

[Buba]

Various ISOT fics, e.g. Golden Island to the West made we wonder - is there provision to kick out a State from the USA?
In the above example - California, from 2016, ISOTed to 1852. IMO the reactions of the Downtimers would be like
In the fic California succeeded on its own accord, but what if it didn't? What if it wanted its share of the House - roughly 3/5ths going by population - and thus push through ... interesting laws? Which would be thrown out by the Senate and President, of course, but Californians would paralyze Congress nonetheless. What could the remaining c.30 States do? How can the Downtimers defend themselves from being inundated with Political Correctness?

 

[Free-Stater 101]

Various ISOT fics, e.g. Golden Island to the West made we wonder - is there provision to kick out a State from the USA?
In the above example - California, from 2016, ISOTed to 1852. IMO the reactions of the Downtimers would be like
In the fic California succeeded on its own accord, but what of it didn't? What if it wanted its share of the House - roughly 3/5ths going by population - and thus push through ... interesting laws? Which would be thrown out by the Senate and President, of course, but Californians would paralyze Congress nonetheless. What could the remaining c.30 States do? How can the Downtimers defend themselves from being inundated with Political Correctness?

A judge could rule that California, while indeed a state that entered the perpetual union that is 'these United States' California didn't enter the same entity that now exist and thus annul statehood without negative long term effects.

 

[Bear Ribs]

Where's California getting it's water from in this ISOT?

 

[Buba]

Oh, the authors of such ISOTs always handwave away the collapse of dams on the lower Colorado hence South California still gets water for its lawns and golf courses and agriculture. Don't worry, no harm cannot befall wonderful Californians!
BTW - I've poked around and it seems that California gets some 15% of its water from outofstate, but this figure doubles or more for the south. Hence IMO in a realistic ISOT - where the dams lose the 50% which is on the Arizonian side - LA and SD become ghost towns and/or south californian agriculture ceases to exist.
The Golden Gate to the West fic - which I've read up to a point, and I don't remember how the water situation was addressed, yet I do not remember any particular problems with water - is on SV and maybe elsewhere.

 

[Bear Ribs]

BTW - I've poked around and it seems that California gets some 15% of its water from outofstate, but this figure doubles or more for the south. Hence IMO in a realistic ISOT - where the dams lose the 50% which is on the Arizonian side - LA and SD become ghost towns and/or south californian agriculture ceases to exist

Those are actually somewhat deceptive figures. A bit over half of all of California's "In-State" surface water flows directly to the ocean because those rivers don't connect to any agricultural or major metropolitan areas, and the "Wild and Scenic Rivers" have to keep flowing into the ocean to prevent seawater from creeping inland and destroying the deltas that are needed for agriculture.

Water in California - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Once you take that into account it's closer to a third of their actual usable supply of water coming from out of state, and well over half for the actual heavily-populated southern part. I agree that without the Colorado River Pact, California's going to lose pretty much the bottom third of the state. Assuming the author doesn't want to do something as grim as a mass die-off this would mean millions of Californians moving to other states and a lot of drama as the rest of the country tries to absorb the massive influx of uptimers.

T'would be interesting to see the mental gymnastics that result. California would pretty much need to go colonize the midwest and take it over in order to have space to move to (and to rebuild the Colorado River Pact and get those aqueducts online) but this would conflict with the normal narrative that the land shouldn't be stolen from Indians.

 

[Buba]

Thanks for pointing out that "enviromental" use which is no use at all
Would there be a need to rebuild the dams and aqueducts?
By the time these would be ready - i.e. in a few years - the population of south California would have been evacuated north and/or the irrigated agriculture dead.

 

[Bear Ribs]

I think southern California might be able to survive long enough to rebuild the dams if they immediately instituted Fremen-tier water conservation policies. No swimming pools, no lawns or gardens, and you get to take one (military-style) shower a week with your water ration. If they strictly reduced water consumption to absolute necessities they could reduce water use a lot. This presumes they have enough discipline and a leader tough enough to force that on some of the richest and most entitled people in the state, but that's just a matter of where you want your story to go.

I doubt they'll have that pipeline going in just a few years though, they're going to have to rebuild the Hoover Dam to recreate Lake Mead for their reservoir and that sucker's one of the seven wonders of the modern world for a reason. Without a fully industrialized 1930s US pushing it it's going to take longer than the OTL.

 

[Buba]

Good point about the longer time needed to rebuild the water bearing infrastructure - for a moment there I forgot that all industrial capacity is gone (inside weeks or months, that is) - due to loss of chain of supply and/or being out of state - and such large construction simply is impossible.
Interestingly California is the 2nd largest producer of cement in the USA. Good for you, California! Question is how long can they keep going before machinery starts to break down and spare parts need to be made by hand ...

 

[LindyAF]

I don't think just annulling statehood would settle the matter- California would still be there, with a hundred and fifty year tech advantage and a larger population than the the Downtimer US, and due to the dramatic cultural differences would view itself as having a mandate and obligation to enforce their views on the Downtimers.

California would have some huge initial stumbling blocks, but I think in order for the Downtimers to have a shot they're going to need to dismantle California and it's culture almost immediately, and steal as much tech as possible as they do it.

 

[Bear Ribs]

Eh, I think they could ride out losing their machinery and make more. California's probably the single best option for becoming ISOT because it's a huge state with at least a little of everything and several prestigious universities. Regardless of how you feel about their politics you can't argue they lack for knowledge and people. If they can get past the initial hump with water being the most critical bit, they can use their existing machines and industry to build up more fairly fast, they just have a supremely solid foundation to build on and an abundance of entrepreneurs who will be eager to build more.

 

[LindyAF]

Another issue would be viruses. While the Californians can probably make smallpox vaccines, they aren't already vaccinated and probably don't have sufficient stockpiles on hand, so they are almost certainly going to be facing a brutal epidemic.

But yeah, if California is allowed a bit of time they're going to get past the water issues, the supply chain issues, and the viral issues, and then they'll have the population, technology, and infrastructure to dictate terms to the rest of the US and world.

If the Downtimers don't want their kids going to drag queen story hour, they basically need to treat California as an existential threat. The upside for the Downtimers is that I think they have a decent shot of recognizing the stakes early on- I'm pretty sure after word about a "sodomy pride march" got out, you'd see North and South setting aside their differences to face the new Babylon.

 

[absenceofmalice]

Various ISOT fics, e.g. Golden Island to the West made we wonder - is there provision to kick out a State from the USA?
In the above example - California, from 2016, ISOTed to 1852. IMO the reactions of the Downtimers would be like
In the fic California succeeded on its own accord, but what if it didn't? What if it wanted its share of the House - roughly 3/5ths going by population - and thus push through ... interesting laws? Which would be thrown out by the Senate and President, of course, but Californians would paralyze Congress nonetheless. What could the remaining c.30 States do? How can the Downtimers defend themselves from being inundated with Political Correctness?

ISOTing anything smaller than a large country is an instant mad max scenario I dont think modern social sciences would survive when the governor of Cali considers a skull pyramid a puplic works project

 

[Doomsought]

Given the political divide between rural and urban California, I could see a force of farmers, engineers and mutineers just picking up and successfully colonizing before the state government figures out whether to colonize or not would be a good idea.

 

[ATP]

In Dies the Fire series by Stirling/about world where modern tech stop working in 1998/ almost all caliphornian die.Mostly becouse lack of water.

 

[Buba]

I think they could ride out losing their machinery and make more.

I am skeptical and pessimistic.

I could see a force of farmers, engineers and mutineers just picking up and successfully colonizing

And they have the mad Amish/survivalist skills to farm with horses etc.?
Truth be told - there are such people in California - they are called immigrants ...

 

[Doomsought]

And they have the mad Amish/survivalist skills to farm with horses etc.?

Diesel mechanics that work with farmers are skilled enough to jerry rig diesel engines to run off biofuel.

Technological retrograde should stop somewhere between 1950s and 1920s technology. That is where all of your electronics can be made by hand.

 

[Buba]

Back on track - so, only a Court (which Court?) can withdraw Statehood? Congress no can do?
Or could Congress vote - "starting tomorrow, the territory of the entity styling itself State of XX is no longer part of these American States"?

 

[LindyAF]

Back on track - so, only a Court (which Court?) can withdraw Statehood? Congress no can do?
Or could Congress vote - "starting tomorrow, the territory of the entity styling itself State of XX is no longer part of these American States"?

To paraphrase Heinlein, violence is the supreme authority from which all other authority is derived. Any ruling from the court, any act of congress, the constitution itself- they're all worthless paper. What matters is the loyalty of men with guns willing to commit violence, not any legal technicalities.

If the Downtimer congress met and unanimously declared that they did not recognize California as a part of the union and that they were declaring war upon it, Pierce ordered the Army to march on California and they obeyed, the Court could and would not rule against it. Similarly, if the Californians were allowed into the Congress and gridlocked the House- but the Court declared that they were not a US state and ordered the representatives expelled, and the Army obeyed, Congress would not legislate against it.

 

[Navarro]

Urban California will disintegrate into Mad-Maxery by itself very quickly owing to the lack of water from Lake Mead and food imports. Local military units will try and restore order on their own, they may even do so with assistance from the rurals. I mean, what SF and LA will be facing is the utter collapse of society. And this is an environment with a highly infectious flu around, which will make things even worse. Under such circumstances they will either abandon their previous ideals or die.

I think southern California might be able to survive long enough to rebuild the dams if they immediately instituted Fremen-tier water conservation policies. No swimming pools, no lawns or gardens, and you get to take one (military-style) shower a week with your water ration. If they strictly reduced water consumption to absolute necessities they could reduce water use a lot. This presumes they have enough discipline and a leader tough enough to force that on some of the richest and most entitled people in the state, but that's just a matter of where you want your story to go.

The question is, is whether they would want to. Would they?

 

[Bear Ribs]

The question is, is whether they would want to. Would they?

Probably not, it's going to come down to whoever's in charge, which may be very different from who's actually elected. I think it's less likely than southern California becoming a +XXL ghost town but if somebody wrote an ISOT where some iron lad or lady was able to knuckle down and force water rations, it would not shatter my suspension of disbelief.