I will project forward two potential global scenarios from what is discussed so far, the first will be one where Alexander III's caution and conservatism is "catching" and tends to tranquilize global geopolitical karma to one degree or another, and does not merely lead to a "vacuum" of impractical, overreaching Russian imperial schemes that other powers "fill" with their own ones to create substituting geopolitical dramas. The second branch scenario, will be...something else.
Long Live AIII - Take One:
1892-1894: (divergent) AIII makes it through these years a healthy man, never suffering from nephritis. He continues to bar Nicholas from marrying Alix of Hesse.
1895: (divergent) Ignoring urgings of Witte and Cassini to 'peacefully conquer' China and Manchuria, AIII declines to diplomatically intervene in objection to the Treaty of Shimonoseki that Japan imposes on China which annexes Taiwan, the Pescadores, and the Liaotung peninsula. Over the following decade, primary focus of Trans-Siberian railway development is on the line north of the Amur river, and south of it in Primorye guberniya, on Russian sovereign territory, an emphasis that comes to appear wise when China is rocked by the Boxer Rebellion in 1900. Korea becomes a de facto puppet state of Japan. Any subsequent development of the Russian Pacific fleet continues to be based on Vladivostok alone, subject to that port's seasonal limitations.
1895-96: AIII skeptically turns aside British PM Salisbury's urging to intervene on behalf of the Armenians, judging any move to partition the OE or take the straits without specific authorization by a conference of all the European powers is far too likely to risk an entirely unwanted war. AIII and his Ministers also have no desire to add more Armenian subjects to the Russian Empire because of their presumed national and political aspirations. Additionally, Ottoman Sultan Abdulhamid II skillfully reassures AIII of the Ottoman commitment to keep the straits closed to non-Russian ships in wartime.
1894-1914: (divergent) Russian imperial status quo in Finland continues. The Grand Duchy of Finland is fairly uniquely exempt from the Russian Empire's 'Russification' policies of 'Autocracy, Orthodoxy, and Nationality'.
1896: (divergent) AIII's cautious nature leads to discouragement of assistance to Abyssinia. As a knock-on effect of fewer Russian instructors and no Russian artillery, the Abyssinians never inflict a significant nor public battlefield a defeat on the Italians, and a plausible contender to the Ethiopian throne is compelled to sign a protectorate agreement with Italy. While there are periodic uprisings and counterinsurgency tasks in the decades ahead, the great powers all write off Abyssinia as Italian territory.
1897: Inspired and tempted by China's weakness, amply demonstrated by Japan, Germany compels China to sign an agreement to lease the port of Qingdao with an extensive surrounding buffer zone in Shandong province for 99 years. Germany uses a naval infantry landing force to seize the bay in a fait accompli and uses the murder of a German missionary in the province as a justification.
1897: Austro-Russian agreement to put the Balkans "on ice". This includes the terrorism wracked Ottoman province of Macedonia. Russia is motivated to make a deal and sees little to lose based on it lack of a Balkan client to champion at the moment, and lack of Balkan problem state to "solve" unilaterally.
1898: The Spanish-American War sees the USA quickly defeat Spain in the Caribbean and the Pacific, render Cuba an independent, but protected, republic, and leads to American acquisition of Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines. Within a few months the US also annexes the Hawaiian islands. Later in the year, or early in the year following, Germany purchases the remainder of the Spanish East Indies, consisting of Palau, the Caroline, and Marianas islands.
1898: Kitchener crushes the Mahdist state on behalf of British and its de facto Egyptian protectorate, and encounters French forces in southern Sudan at Fashoda. The French are compelled to disperse at British command, marking British superiority in Africa and the colonial sphere generally.
1899:(divergent) Heir to the Russian throne Nicholas gives up on Alix of Hesse and marries someone else.
1899-1902: The 2nd Anglo-Boer War- Boers and British Empire fight a conventional and then guerrilla war as the Boers do better than expected initially in each phase. Other powers cheer on the Boer underdogs who attract aid, volunteers and sympathy, but no other powers commit actual acts of war on behalf of the Boers. Pro-Boer sympathies and volunteerism are more popular in Russian than almost anywhere else, but the government commits itself to no warlike action, allowing citizens to blow of steam through individual and group charitable and volunteer actions, much like happens in other countries like Netherlands, Germany, France, the USA. Britain ultimately wins through overwhelming force applied against Boer soldiers and civilians and their resources and offering a moderate peace.
1899-1901: Anti-Foreign Boxer Rebellion in China - Much like OTL, irritated by the foreign scramble for concessions and abuses of the extraterritoriality system, Chinese rebel against foreigners and Christian converts. (divergent) Without an oversized developmental interest in both the Chinese Eastern Railway and the South Manchurian Railway, Russia does not commit an extra large and extra lengthy occupation of the entirety of Manchuria in 1900-1902 that in OTL irritated several other powers.
1902: (divergent) There is no Anglo-Japanese alliance declared this year, primarily because on Japan's end, despite the enthusiasm of some Japanese diplomats and Diet members and persons in the Naval Staff, Ito Hirobumi successfully makes his case to other Japanese Genro and serving Cabinet members including most importantly head of the Army, Yamagata Aritomo, that the admitted advantages of an alliance with the UK are outweighed by the increased chance of such an alliance tie drawing Japan into conflict unnecessarily with other major powers including Russia, Germany, France, or the USA.
1903: Kishinev pogrom is a particularly bad pogrom against Russian Jews, gaining international attention and supercharging already prevalent Russian Jewish emigration. AIII and his Ministers are generally content that high emigration levels from the empire are disproportionately from Jews and other minority, and mostly non-Orthodox ethnic groups from the western fringes of the empire, rather than of Orthodox Great Russians.
1903: Massacre of the Obrenivich ruling dynasty in Serbia and installation of the Karageorgovich. The new Karageorgovich dynasty, and especially its supporters among the
'Black Hand' military conspirators who executed the coup and assassination are very anti-Austrian, anti-Ottoman and pro-Russian. The Russian government and Tsar are fairly indifferent to the enthusiasm of the new regime of the Serbian regicides, even a little cool, but the opportunity this willing client presents will not be unnoticed by all corners of Russian officialdom forever.
1904: (divergent) The most notable thing that does *not* happen in this quiet February of this quiet year is that Japan does not attack Russia. Japan is absolutely unmotivated to do so, feeling hardly any anger at Russia and very little threat from the large and proud neighbor it rubs shoulders with in the icy waters of Okhotsk where the Kuriles meet Kamchatka, and Russian Sakhalin meets Japanese Hokkaido, and where Russian Vladivostok meets the edge of Japan's puppet empire of Korea.
What *is* headline news in Japan is the abdication of the Korean Emperor and yielding of his Empire to the Japanese Empire as Korea is annexed to Japan.
1905: France, having made prior bargains with Italy and Britain over Libya and Egypt respectively, and with Spain, begins to exercise unilateral protective powers over the Sultan of Morocco. French Foreign Minister Delcasse pointedly left Germany out of any prior bargaining, a deliberate insult.
1905: (divergent) Germany, feeling insulted by French conduct, pushes back diplomatically and economically to claim its due treaty rights and the internationally backed traditional rights of the Sultan. However, Germany does not walk into these discussions in a saber-rattling mood with saber-rattling posture that rises to any one's attention or convinces anyone in Germany, or France, or third countries, that Morocco is a potential casus belli for war in Africa or Europe. The reason for this blasé attitude is that Germany is not looking back over its shoulder at a Russia suffering military defeat in Asia and suppressing revolutionary upheaval at home. Rather, Russia, France's principal ally, appears stable as ever, and can never be absent from any German calculations about a war with France for any reason. Hence, despite occasional raised voices, heated words, coarse language, subversive activity, German opposition to French moves takes a diplomatic and economic retaliatory form, not a military ultimatumist form. The Germans may even have the foresight to see France would outvote them in a diplomatic conference, and so avoid asking for one that would illustrate their lesser influence or they may not. In any case. German pressure on France is insufficient to even get Delcasse fired. There may be a great power conference and Delcasse could walk out smiling and the Germans walk out frowning.
1905-1906: (divergent) No Russian revolution of this particular year and no granting of a constitution or Duma. Workers strikes are not absent, including some political ones. And there are still instances of agrarian unrest and even violent estate burnings. But without disturbances shaking the regime at its core, and with a more conservative ruler, the Stolypin agrarian reforms are not adopted at this time.
1907: (strangely convergent) Despite the lack of a Russo-Japanese war, and the loss of two Russian fleets, and general Russian revolutionary disturbances not revealing to Russia, the larger world, and Britain, underlying Russian weaknesses, Russia and Britain still come to a colonial Entente on longstanding disputes over Tibet, Afghanistan, and Persia at about this time. The Russians at this moment face very little opportunity cost because they have little prospect of making a great near term gain or leap to a coast or "warm-water port" by continuing a forward policy. The British face very little opportunity cost in abandoning a forward anti-Russian containment policy because they cannot afford to fully subdue any of Persia, Afghanistan or Tibet, much less unsettle the Russian position in Central Asia. While the British lack reassurance that Russia is weakened and thus a 'safer' negotiating partner for now, this alternate Britain has *no* great power treaty allies (not Japan) unlike OTL Britain so has a correspondingly greater hunger to reduce its diplomatic isolation and imperial defense costs through a deal protecting India's landward frontiers diplomatically.
1908: Young Turk Revolution ousts Abdulhamid II from effective power and the CUP, aka, Young Turks, call for representatives from all the Ottoman provinces to assemble in the Ottoman capital.
1908-09: (divergent) menaced by the implications of the Young Turk revolution for the status quo in occupied Bosnia, Austrian FM Aerhenthal pushes for annexation of Bosnia and seeks to make a bargain with Russia gaining Russian acquiescence in the act. AIII is wary of any dealmaking, but allows Isvolsky to try. When Isvolsky comes back saying he has a deal over Bosnia annexation, Bulgarian announced independence, and the straits, AIII is warily accepting, although irritated about the formal Bulgarian independence and corresponding elevation of Ferdinand to Tsar. When this deal blows up Isvolsky's face, with Austria pocketing Bosnia, while the powers, especially Britain fail to agree to any change in the straits regime, Isvolsky is disgracefully downgraded to Asian or American diplomatic posts (instead of given Paris), and told by the Tsar its not his job to save his reputation. AIII has no love for Austrian conduct during the crisis, but none for Bulgarian self-promotion to Tsardom, nor much of any for Serbian escalation to mobilization on its Austrian and Ottoman borders, and loud objections to the Bosnian annexation and demands for compensating territory. To AIII, despite the Serbs fulsome proclamations of their loyalty to the Russian autocrat as the leader of Slavdom and Orthodoxy, their reckless behavior and presumption even towards enemy great powers is tainted by the sin of immodesty and overambition. The Tsar makes a note to himself to handle Serbia carefully in the future, no matter how much it knows how to tell Russians what they want to hear. He shares this observation with his Ministers and son several times. The Tsar is also bothered by the unregulated and irresponsible expression of patriotic opinion, urging Serbia and Russia forward to confrontation with Austria and Germany. Because AIII is resistant to domestic patriotic opinion all along and never considered the Bosnian matter anything close to a valid casus belli, this ATL's Bosnia Crisis also ended sooner with fewer harsh diplomatic notes issued by Berlin than OTL.
1909: (divergent) Feeling a need to take more of the initiative in the patriotic agenda and to exert more message control to reduce expression of unsolicited, and thus potentially unwanted or inconvenient opinion, even from ideologically congenial and patriotic circles, AIII assigns more Okhrana men to report on patriotic and conservative press organizations to report on grassroots views and develop government narratives to encourage. In the 1909-1910 timeframe for instance, the way the directed part of this campaigning plays out is to divert focus from Austro-German treachery or Serbian valor but to raise the saliency of anti-semitic stories and other stories and accusations about internal enemies who can be attacked with fewer international diplomatic complications. A result of this is an increased round of pogroms in this timeframe.
1911: (divergent) The Second Morocco Crisis may involve diplomatic bargaining like OTL, but perhaps with less bitterness on the German side if there are fewer German bitter memories from the first Morocco Crisis because German hopes were never raised as high.
1911-1912: (divergent) Xinhai Republican Revolution in China. Qing overthrown. Yuan Shikai is probably the key power player in the transition. One possible divergence from OTL might be that with Japan's earlier annexation of Korea (1904) and Russia's always lower stake in Manchuria, and Japan's longer term stake in south Manchuria (since Liaotung annexation 1895) Japan may sponsor a rump Manchu state in 1911-1912. Meanwhile, in a plausible counter-move, and a move that was done in OTL, Russia may take on sponsorship of the secular Khans or religious Lamas of Outer Mongolia in that region on the outer edges of Republican Chinese control. This may apply to Xinjiang as well. Neither Japan nor other powers would be likely to object to Russian clientalization of these inner Asian areas by military means, and for Russia, this would buffer the security of the Trans-Siberian railway.
1911: (divergent) Italian occupation of Libya. Through a process of diplomacy and ultimatum, Italy, with the silent backing of other great powers in the Triple Alliance and Triple Entente. compels the Ottoman Empire to permit Italian occupation, administration, and economic integration of the Libyan provinces, without war. Italy accept this outcome in the ATL unlike OTL because it has no colonial chip on its shoulder to avenge (Abyssinia) if it can expand its control peacefully (barring local tribal resisters), and has enough extra colonial policing to do in occupied Abyssinia. Its Triple Alliance partners, Austria and Germany, who have their own desires for good relations with the Ottomans also much prefer a peaceful occupation, and formal retention of Ottoman "suzerainty" as a legal fiction, to the chaos of an Italo-Ottoman war. It is also more convenient for Britain's administration in Egypt and Russia increasingly relying on the straits for its exports of grain and emigrants.
1911: (divergent) Tsar AIII is finally convinced by accumulated evidence and persistent argument and accounts of attitudes of settlers on the Siberian frontiers that encouraging consolidated private peasant landholdings over the peasant communes is positive and politically and socially stabilizing reform in addition to an economically profitable one, causing its nationwide adoption as agrarian policy.
1912: (divergent) The Ottoman Empire spends this ho-hum year fighting an negotiating a deal with Albanian rebels and does not face a Balkan invasion, for two main reasons: 1) there has been no Italian war proving the Ottoman highly vulnerable, especially in naval war, to encourage Balkan attackers, and 2) Tsar AIII has not encouraged a Montenegrin-Serbian-Bulgarian "Balkan League" for special defensive or offensive purposes against Austria or the Ottoman Empire, feeling any defensive purpose can easily be perverted for an offensive agenda. Also, by this year, the heir Nicholas has fathered an heir by Princess not-Alexandra who has reached school age and proven to be non-hemophiliac.
Summer 1914: (divergent) The assassins of Young Bosnia, supported by the Serbian Black Hand, aided by "Apis" in Serbian intelligence assassinate the Austro-Hungarian heir to the throne, Franz-Ferdinand and his wife. With Serbia not having recently expanded and strengthened in territory and population, Austria-Hungary is less paranoid about it, and Russia is less committed to it as an important client. Under heavy diplomatic pressure the case of the assassination and its investigation is treated in Serbia as a police matter with legitimate multilateral involvement. It does not lead to any threats of regime change or invasion/occupation.
October 1914: (divergent) Tsar Alexander III dies, and Nicholas II is crowned Tsar.
What happens next?
