What if Nicholas I (the fox) tried to steal the straits (the eggs/hens) when invited by the Sultan to protect the OE (the henhouse) in 1833?

Could the Russian forces take over Istanbul and the straits at this time?

  • No, they would be defeated at the gates

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Yes, but surely they would be thrown out by others within a year or so

    Votes: 1 100.0%
  • Yes, and they could hold them down for Russia

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    1

raharris1973

Well-known member
During the first Ottoman-Egyptian War of 1831-1833, after the defeat at Konya, the Ottomans officially asked the Russians for military help.
The Russian Emperor directed the Russian Black Sea fleet to sail to Constantinople to secure the straits and check Ibrahim.
The following Russian forces arrived:
February 1833 - 9 ships (4 ships of the line, 5 frigates) plus 30,000 troops under Rear Admiral Lazarev
March 1833 - additional 11 ships (3 ships of the line, 1 frigate, 4 transport ships, and 3 supply ships) plus 5,500 troops under Rear Admiral Kuman
April 1833 - additional 17 ships (3 ships of the line, 2 other ships equipped with cannons, 1 transport, 11 supply ships) plus another 4,700 troops under Rear Admiral Storozhevski

Not willing to engage with the Russian expeditionary force, Ibrahim was forced to turn back and leave Taurus mountains (southern Turkey).
The Russian force left in June 1833 after the peace treaty was signed in May.

Looking at the scope of the Russian intervention of 1833, 10 ships of the line, 6 frigates, 5 transports, 14 supply ships, and 40,200 troops on both sides of the straits and the adjacent waters, I wonder if it was dependent on permissive, cooperative host-country Ottoman access, or would have been sustainable had Nicholas I gone rogue and betrayed the Ottoman Sultan and sought to take over control of the straits for Russia itself and perhaps partition of the empire with the Egyptians?

On the one hand, this was a relatively limited size force (albeit not a trifling force), operating at a very long distance from home, surrounded by hundreds of miles of Ottoman territory or open water before the nearest major domestic Russian production bases, depots, or bases. The Ottoman Sultan theoretically had garrison troops all over his Balkan provinces and western Anatolia he could use to beleaguer and ultimately destroy any Russian force trying to seize the Ottoman capital or straits by coup de main. On the other hand, the Sultan's forces had repeatedly shown their weakness and incapacity when facing the Egyptians in battle, and the Egyptians, while probably having superior numbers to the Russians, almost certainly had inferior artillery and training in its accurate employment, and less formidable ships.

With all these factors in mind, what if Nicholas I was a greedy, Machiavellian, devious double-crossing SOB, who attempted to use his alliance with the Ottoman Sultan to seize the capital and straits for himself. Could he have seized them for himself and Russia and sustained a permanent occupation of them, or would the Sultan's forces have driven him out inevitably? Or if not the Sultan's forces, Muhammad Ali and Ibrahim's Egyptians? Or if not the Egyptians or Ottomans individually, some combination of the British, other European, and local powers?
 
I voted #2.
Russia is broke, after the end-of-twenties wars with Persia and Ottomans and putting down the Polish Revolt. And it just had a cholera epidemic too.
IMO Britain and Austria would act against Russia.

a greedy, Machiavellian, devious double-crossing SOB
Napoleon I, Frederick II of Prussia ...
 
Last edited:
IMO Britain and Austria would act against Russia.
Where would they act to counter the Russians? The British with their Navy and Marines and some troops from Malta or India in the Aegean, bombarding the Russians, working to force the straits to kick the Russians out? The Austrians by dispatching troops from Transylvania and Banat to cut off Russian troops and communication lines in Wallachia and Dobruja and Bulgaria/Thrace, marching as far as Istanbul if they have to?

Who would the British and Austrians work with as partners? a) Ottoman forces loyal to the Sultan that may be left over in western Anatolia and the Balkans? b) Powerful Ottoman Governors like Ali Pasha Tepelini of Yannina in the western Balkans?, c) the strongest Muslim force in the empire, Muhammad Ali and his Egyptians?

How would other powers like the Orleanist French and Prussians be reacting to the British and Austrian moves?
 
British raid Baltic coasts. Blocade Dardanelles, if not Bosphorus. Privide money(!) and troops to Ottoman holdouts. Provide money to Austria.
Austria happens to have a LONG land border with Russia. It almost certainly foments unrest in Poland (like it IMO helped organise the January Uprising), thus drawing away Russian troops away from Balkans and wherever the Austrian-Russian frontline will be.
Muhammad Ali - IMO the Russians should/would offer him a deal - everythign south of the Taurus (similar to OTL, but here Iraq as well, not only Syria), or even half/most of Anatolia. A dream ally of convenience!
France IIRC was backing Egypt, but here I believe it'd stay neutral because Royal Navy ...
Prussia? Stays neutral over Balkans but possibly will make noises over Polish Question. Depends on moves of other parties. E.g. Austria funds Polish Uprising, Nicholai blows his nose in Poland's general direction and tells Berlin that the 1795 border is theirs if they want it. They only have to put down the rebels and kick the Austrians out :p.
Or even "take the whole Congress Poland mess, if you want".
 

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top