raharris1973
Well-known member
Saigo Takamori proposed early in the Meiji regime to conquer Korea, in great part to find honorable employment for recently unemployed and de-priviledged Samurai.
This was 1873.
The government of the day decided against it, although it did launch an expedition against Korea in 1876 to force Korea into an unequal treaty relationship like the ones the western countries made Japan and China suffer under.
Japan's forces are a lot more behind western peer nations and less technically capable in the early 1870s than they would be in the 1890s or even 1880s, both on land, and at sea. Manufacturing is far more small shop and handicraft based with far less use of machines. Technological and vehicular literacy is lower in Japan.
However, the Koreans at this stage are nearly untouched by outside contact.
The Chinese, while possessing formidably large ground forces, and some units with modern weapons, have fought off and are recovering from two large national scale rebellions (the Taiping and the Nien), are just finishing off the Muslim rebellion in the southwest (the Panthay) and are in the middle of a slog to beat down the Muslim Dungan rebellion in the northwest (until 1877). They kinda busy.
The European and American powers, while a great technological and economic overmatch for Japan, and capable of thwarting Japanese operations in Korea if they set their minds to it, are much less well provisioned with local bases and ships in the region in the early 1870s than they were by the 1890s. This distinction applies perhaps a little less to Britain than to the continental European powers from France to Russia and the United States. Additionally, a Japanese invasion of Korea in 1874 isn't going to spoil any Euro-American trade interests, because at that time, it was still successfully excluding foreigners and there was no trade.
So absolute capability assessment in isolation says this a tough challenge for Japan, but net assessment factoring in the opposition, suggests Japan can conquer the Koreans one-on-one.
Here's a few alternate outcomes -
1) Japanese conquest of Korea, then suppression/pacification of rebellions, then long-term rule, from the 1870s on - what long-term difference does this make?
2) Japan conquers/pacifies Korea 1874-1876. Then 1878, having finished off the Dungan rebellion, China invades Japanese Korea, and liberates/conquers North Korea or all Korea. Either one, but especially a partitioned Korea, could weaken both China and Japan, but also lead to an early Sino-Japanese arms race
3) China fights the Japanese in Korea from the beginning, deciding to fight the Japanese and the Dungan rebels at the same time, or handle Korea and the Japanese first, and the Dungans later. The Chinese outright stalemate the Japanese, or possibly beat them on the mainland. Possibly Taiwan becomes another front. Results there are another toss-up
4) Western-wank option - Japan's adventures in Korea, either facing Chinese resistance or not, are so costly that they force Japan to wrack up large debts. Disraeli before the end of his time starts to collect some of the Japanese islands as British imperial possessions as collateral for debts that can't be paid, or uses Indian Army troops to make Victoria empress of Japan and Korea as well as India.
This was 1873.
The government of the day decided against it, although it did launch an expedition against Korea in 1876 to force Korea into an unequal treaty relationship like the ones the western countries made Japan and China suffer under.
Japan's forces are a lot more behind western peer nations and less technically capable in the early 1870s than they would be in the 1890s or even 1880s, both on land, and at sea. Manufacturing is far more small shop and handicraft based with far less use of machines. Technological and vehicular literacy is lower in Japan.
However, the Koreans at this stage are nearly untouched by outside contact.
The Chinese, while possessing formidably large ground forces, and some units with modern weapons, have fought off and are recovering from two large national scale rebellions (the Taiping and the Nien), are just finishing off the Muslim rebellion in the southwest (the Panthay) and are in the middle of a slog to beat down the Muslim Dungan rebellion in the northwest (until 1877). They kinda busy.
The European and American powers, while a great technological and economic overmatch for Japan, and capable of thwarting Japanese operations in Korea if they set their minds to it, are much less well provisioned with local bases and ships in the region in the early 1870s than they were by the 1890s. This distinction applies perhaps a little less to Britain than to the continental European powers from France to Russia and the United States. Additionally, a Japanese invasion of Korea in 1874 isn't going to spoil any Euro-American trade interests, because at that time, it was still successfully excluding foreigners and there was no trade.
So absolute capability assessment in isolation says this a tough challenge for Japan, but net assessment factoring in the opposition, suggests Japan can conquer the Koreans one-on-one.
Here's a few alternate outcomes -
1) Japanese conquest of Korea, then suppression/pacification of rebellions, then long-term rule, from the 1870s on - what long-term difference does this make?
2) Japan conquers/pacifies Korea 1874-1876. Then 1878, having finished off the Dungan rebellion, China invades Japanese Korea, and liberates/conquers North Korea or all Korea. Either one, but especially a partitioned Korea, could weaken both China and Japan, but also lead to an early Sino-Japanese arms race
3) China fights the Japanese in Korea from the beginning, deciding to fight the Japanese and the Dungan rebels at the same time, or handle Korea and the Japanese first, and the Dungans later. The Chinese outright stalemate the Japanese, or possibly beat them on the mainland. Possibly Taiwan becomes another front. Results there are another toss-up
4) Western-wank option - Japan's adventures in Korea, either facing Chinese resistance or not, are so costly that they force Japan to wrack up large debts. Disraeli before the end of his time starts to collect some of the Japanese islands as British imperial possessions as collateral for debts that can't be paid, or uses Indian Army troops to make Victoria empress of Japan and Korea as well as India.