Option 2: ComStar honors the trial and hands over Earth. This would actually be the best outcome, so ComStar probably won't do it. Clan Wolf probably becomes ilClan due to Ulric being the one who pulled off the win. This lasts all of a week before the other clans start trials of possession to take the title away because the clans really didn't have much of a plan beyond "Capture Terra" and none of the clans are too awful likely to decide they should just stay subordinate to Wolf. They probably make a token attempt at rebuilding the Star League but I have strong doubts the Great Houses will go for it. Due to infighting over who gets to be ilClan the clans won't do a lot of invading though there will be plenty of raids on both sides.
Actually, Ulric did have a plan for this. If he and Clan Wolf managed to become ilClan the first order they would give is to pack up and leave the Inner Sphere returning the worlds they conquered to the respective Great Houses. The Clans would still hold Terra and be "in contact" with the Inner Sphere, but this win would prove that the Warden philosophy and methods are correct, thus the Clans are not meant to be conquerors but protectors and so should be focused on that and stay in their own lane. ComStar would become subservient to Clan Wolf but likely left to their own devices...
Well, for a short time, once Ulric finds out about the Blakist revolt that would be happening (and likely more widespread in this) he would have the Clans hunting down the Blakists across the Inner Sphere, seeing them (accurately) as a threat to humanity and the Inner Sphere (this will be especially true once Ulric gets access to the ComStar achives on Terra which will show that the Blakists were actively making things worse for the Great Houses, keeping them at war with each other and even staging raids under false colors). Some of the Great Houses would probably cooperate (FedCom and Dracs, though there'd be a LOT of tension with the Dracs) and the Capellan Confederation likely would begrudgingly do so due to their still being in a rebuilding and recovery phase. However the Free Worlds League would not, due to the the Captain-General being a literal Blakists stooge. This would then put the Clans in an awkward position. Hunting down Blakists in areas where the Great House has let them in to do so and is cooperating is one thing, but if the Great House is refusing it basically would require them to wage war against the Great House... which is a large scale operation the Clans would likely not be quite ready for.
Thus you likely see them officially allow Word of Blake in the FWL like in the original timeline; however, there would be an ongoing very active shadow war between the Clans and Word of Blake here.
That said, I think your scenario 1 is more likely. Focht and his ComGuards at Tukkyid would likely honor the agreement, but Waterly absolutely would not and would activate every trick in the book she had to resist the Clans.
That said, I'm honestly not sure the Great Houses would support or be swayed by Waterly's propaganda about atrocities against ComStar. Remember, as the battle of Tukkyyid was unfolding, Waterly was initiating Operation Scorpion with the explicit purpose of decapitating the Great Houses. While this was foiled, none of the Great Houses would be kindly disposed towards ComStar: ComStar made its bed and can now lie in it. They might even be willing to allow the Clans Safecon through their space to attack Earth. Hanse most likely would, given his long, LONG feud with ComStar. It may well be that the Great Houses see the Clans fixating on ComStar and Terra as something ComStar brought on themselves and so wash their hands of it, nationalizing all ComStar facilities in their territory and then telling ComStar to fuck off.