What if the Germans conditioned their support for an Austrian ultimatum against Serbia on having Italian support too?

[raharris1973]

What happens?

A very short conversation like this:

Germany calls Italy: "So, you ready to back up Austria against these Serbian rascals"
Italy: "Hell no"
Germany calls Austria: "Sorry, they ain't convinced."
Austria says: "Figures, I told you so"

Or a longer conversation like this:

Germany calls Italy: "So, you ready to back up Austria against these Serbian rascals"
Italy: "Uh, it's a little complicated. We're gonna need to resolve a few things a first, like they need to hand us Trentino up to the Brenner Pass, Istria, Trieste, Fiume, the islands of Dalmatia, and leave the guidance of Albania to us, and then we can start talking about other things, OK"
Germany calls Austria, relaying 'offer': "Hey the Italians made an offer, that's the good news. There's a bunch of real estate issues involved up front but they uh, want to get to yes. I don't think the offers are going to get any better for you in this market."
Austria: "Some allies you two - the highway robber banditti, and the nincompoop"

 

[WolfBear]

Maybe this could motivate Austria-Hungary to want to outright annex Serbia to compensate for its territorial losses to Italy. Ironically, having Austria-Hungary outright annex Serbia, Romania, and Poland might have been the best way to solve the Yugoslav, Romanian, and Polish national questions in the absence of a World War (so, much less bloodily relative to WWI). I'm not joking. It would be difficult to get A-H to give up its own territory, so might as well get the Yugoslav, Romanian, and Polish peoples outside of A-H to join A-H. They could even form their own federal units within A-H if necessary.

 

[raharris1973]

Maybe this could motivate Austria-Hungary to want to outright annex Serbia to compensate for its territorial losses to Italy. Ironically, having Austria-Hungary outright annex Serbia, Romania, and Poland might have been the best way to solve the Yugoslav, Romanian, and Polish national questions in the absence of a World War (so, much less bloodily relative to WWI). I'm not joking. It would be difficult to get A-H to give up its own territory, so might as well get the Yugoslav, Romanian, and Polish peoples outside of A-H to join A-H. They could even form their own federal units within A-H if necessary.

I salute your boldness

 

[WolfBear]

I salute your boldness

Thank you. That said, though, I am simply being realistic here. Short of a peaceful implosion of A-H similar to the 1991 USSR, the best way for Poles, Yugoslavs, and Romanians to realize all of their national aspirations with minimal bloodshed would have been by having their other ethnic territories join Austria-Hungary. They would also have an excellent monarch in the long(er)-run in the form of Otto von Hapsburg, who was a huge fan of the Pan-European ideal and also appears to have been a rather nice and kind person.

Meanwhile, the Baltic national aspirations could be realized by having them become their own states within the German Empire after they will secede from Russia, if that will ever actually occur without any World Wars occurring beforehand, of course.

 

[Buba]

AFAIK any ideas about annexations in the Balkans met with a firm FUCK NO! reaction in Budapest.

As to resolving the Polish question - my favourite solution is to recreate the Kingdom of Poland and dump Little Poland on it. (Eastern) Galicia+Bukovina could be disposed off in similar manner, i.e. spun off .
There are ready made monarchs for both - Karol Olbracht Habsburg-Lotaryński for one, and his brother Wilhem "call me Vasyl" Gabsburg-Lotarynskiy for the other.
Getting rid of the piss-poor shithole with 10M Poles, Ukrainians and Jews would be IMO beneficial for the Dual Monarchy. Population goes down by 20%, to 42M, the GDP goes down by much lesser percentage.

As to the OP - with Italy playing greedy bugger there would be Carte Blanche, so no A-H invasion. Unless A-H decides upon a quick Strafekspedition - which might, but not inevitably, escalate into a World War.

 

[WolfBear]

AFAIK any ideas about annexations in the Balkans met with a firm FUCK NO! reaction in Budapest.

As to resolving the Polish question - my favourite solution is to recreate the Kingdom of Poland and dump Little Poland on it. (Eastern) Galicia+Bukovina could be disposed off in similar manner, i.e. spun off .
There are ready made monarchs for both - Karol Olbracht Habsburg-Lotaryński for one, and his brother Wilhem "call me Vasyl" Gabsburg-Lotarynskiy for the other.
Getting rid of the piss-poor shithole with 10M Poles, Ukrainians and Jews would be IMO beneficial for the Dual Monarchy. Population goes down by 20%, to 42M, the GDP goes down by much lesser percentage.

As to the OP - with Italy playing greedy bugger there would be Carte Blanche, so no A-H invasion. Unless A-H decides upon a quick Strafekspedition - which might, but not inevitably, escalate into a World War.

Are you thinking of a Polish federation here? With Russian Poland as one component/unit and Galicia as the other component/unit?

 

[Buba]

Are you thinking of a Polish federation here? With Russian Poland as one component/unit and Galicia as the other component/unit?

No, not a federation. The two would be absolute separate entities.
Also - Galicia would be split roughly along the San/Curzon Line. The western part (which may be called Little Poland/Małopolska, a historical Polish term, not demeaning) would be added to Russian Poland, while the eastern part - Galicia senso stricto - would be united with Bukovina.

I will now go and get my body armour&helmet - I'll need them when other Polish board members see this ...

 

[WolfBear]

No, not a federation. The two would be absolute separate entities.
Also - Galicia would be split roughly along the San/Curzon Line. The western part (which may be called Little Poland/Małopolska, a historical Polish term, not demeaning) would be added to Russian Poland, while the eastern part - Galicia senso stricto - would be united with Bukovina.

I will now go and get my body armour&helmet - I'll need them when other Polish board members see this ...

Why not give at least southern Bukovina to Romania?

 

[Buba]

Why not give at least southern Bukovina to Romania?

I see no reason to give it to Romania. And bad precedent - spinning off distant lands to newly created entities = OK. Spinning off distant lands to entities claiming to have some sort of valid - LAFFS - claims on them - nope.
But I am digressing from the OP - EOT for this subtopic for me.

 

[WolfBear]

I see no reason to give it to Romania.

Southern Bukovina has a Romanian-majority population: