What if the Kuomintang won the Chinese Civil War?

[Circle of Willis]

I think the two best PODs to achieve this would be:

1. Zhou Enlai's spies are found out and purged before they can spill the beans on the final encirclement campaign to him. As a result, the Communists remain trapped in the south and Chiang Kai-shek's grand offensive against them succeeds completely. No Long March, the Chinese Reds are utterly destroyed by the mid-1930s, and Mao himself ends up an anonymous casualty of the KMT firing squads since to my understanding he wasn't very important yet.

2. The US never attempts to broker a ceasefire and negotiations between the KMT and CCP after WW2, which historically went nowhere and just gave the Communists valuable time to rearm, expand and reposition their forces. Instead, the Truman administration continues backing Chiang's regime to the hilt from the very start and the latter end up slowly but surely squashing the Communists. (Optionally, the Soviets may elect to defend a rump PRC in Manchuria in this POD, that is if they don't permanently grab the region for themselves)

Regardless of how it happens, China never becomes Communist, either in the mid-1930s or late 1940s. How does this affect Asian and world affairs going forward?

 

[PsihoKekec]

KMT still has massive problem with corruption, there is still insurgency in many parts of the country and the warlords still need to be brought to heel.
North Korea is in a very perilous position, with imperialist pigdogs on both North and South border, so no Korean war. War in Indochina goes much differently without weapons flowing from China, so instead of massive battles there would be steady guerrilla attrition and high costs for France, so they would gradually disengage from the region through 50s and 60s, with newly independent countries dealing with the unrest to the best of their abilities.

 

[Circle of Willis]

KMT still has massive problem with corruption, there is still insurgency in many parts of the country and the warlords still need to be brought to heel.
North Korea is in a very perilous position, with imperialist pigdogs on both North and South border, so no Korean war. War in Indochina goes much differently without weapons flowing from China, so instead of massive battles there would be steady guerrilla attrition and high costs for France, so they would gradually disengage from the region through 50s and 60s, with newly independent countries dealing with the unrest to the best of their abilities.

Regarding Korea, I thought Kim Il-sung primarily looked to Stalin for permission & support to attack SK at the outset rather than Mao. Might he try it anyway if a Soviet-backed rump PRC in Manchuria survives, making it less obvious that he'd be stomped from both sides as would be the case if the ROC and NK shared a border?

Further south, without Chinese backing for the Viet Minh/North Vietnam and the Soviets now lacking the easiest way to supply them, is it possible that Vietnam would become a unified non-Communist republic, and Southeast Asia in general becomes a region of contested influence between the ROC and USA? I doubt Chiang would tolerate another Communist state on his southern border any more than he would on the northeast, but I can't see him becoming a totally loyal American lapdog if he ever manages to sort out his internal situation on the mainland either.

 

[Buba]

1 - independent Tibet. At least for longer. I imagine KMT China as having too much internal and external issues as to care/be able to do anything about Tibet.
2 - India does not get its teeth kicked in and thus the incompetent buffon Nehru basks in his brilliance for longer.
2a - with no PRC backing Pakistan is more sedate? Or does it get delusions of grandeur as in OTL?
3 - if NK attacks the South it will be crushed and overrun. But no war and permanent split along the 38th parallel seems more likely.
4 - Taiwan remains a backwater.
5 - ex-FIC probably continues as three monarchies to this day. The French leave sometime in the early 1960s?
6 - there still is potential for China to end up as the world's industrial powerhouse.
7 - Japan is much poorer/reaches ROK/ROC (Taiwan) levels later - no US investment/economic stimuli due to Korean War and PRC containment.

 

[PsihoKekec]

Further south, without Chinese backing for the Viet Minh/North Vietnam and the Soviets now lacking the easiest way to supply them, is it possible that Vietnam would become a unified non-Communist republic

Without China providing the weapons and safe harbor, the RC4 disaster does not happen, so the French trudge on until the cost becomes too much for them to bear or the Algerian war kicks off. So they hand off the power to Bao Dai and leave, but leave stronger influence, perhaps the power struggle between Dai and Diem goes differently, but anyway there is still the core cause for the unrest in the country with population being exploited by the catholic minority, along with regional rivalries between Saigon and Hanoi elites, while KMT seeks to expand it's influence in the country. So interesting times ahead and anything goes.

 

[Sārthākā]

The KMT until the 1990s were not really much better than the PRC regarding authoritarianism and despotism. Also, the KMT not only claimed Tibet, but also Tajikistan, Mongolia, and a lot of Russian lands. They claimed Arunachal Pradesh, a lot of Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar as well. Neighboring countries are not going to be friendly.

 

[KnightTemplar]

The KMT until the 1990s were not really much better than the PRC regarding authoritarianism and despotism. Also, the KMT not only claimed Tibet, but also Tajikistan, Mongolia, and a lot of Russian lands. They claimed Arunachal Pradesh, a lot of Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar as well. Neighboring countries are not going to be friendly.

At least they wouldn't have carried out the Cultural Revolution or the Great Leap Forward. The amount of death and human suffering those caused was immense.

 

[Sārthākā]

At least they wouldn't have carried out the Cultural Revolution or the Great Leap Forward. The amount of death and human suffering those caused was immense.

yup, that's the biggest(only) plus side i can see. Though an equivalent to the white terror would also be quite horrendous. Per Capita, the White Terror sometimes reached the GLF levels.

 

[ATP]

Without China providing the weapons and safe harbor, the RC4 disaster does not happen, so the French trudge on until the cost becomes too much for them to bear or the Algerian war kicks off. So they hand off the power to Bao Dai and leave, but leave stronger influence, perhaps the power struggle between Dai and Diem goes differently, but anyway there is still the core cause for the unrest in the country with population being exploited by the catholic minority, along with regional rivalries between Saigon and Hanoi elites, while KMT seeks to expand it's influence in the country. So interesting times ahead and anything goes.

You knew,that catholic minority was part of population,was there since 17th century /longer then USA/and fared better becouse
worked better.
But - they would have no privilages in this scenario,becouse emparor Bao was not catholic,and without CIA plot nobody would dethrone him.

 

[BlackDragon98]

yup, that's the biggest(only) plus side i can see. Though an equivalent to the white terror would also be quite horrendous. Per Capita, the White Terror sometimes reached the GLF levels.

There wouldn't be a white terror at all had the KMT defeated the Communists in the 1930s.
The KMT had surrounded the CCP through blockhouses, using the strategy that their German military advisors suggested and it was working very well.
All the communists in China were basically trapped in their little Soviet, so once they've been destroyed that means communism has been pretty much purged from China.
There may be a few communist elements in the cities leftover from the Nanchang disaster, but they (if they did exist) are all that's left.

 

[S'task]

The KMT until the 1990s were not really much better than the PRC regarding authoritarianism and despotism. Also, the KMT not only claimed Tibet, but also Tajikistan, Mongolia, and a lot of Russian lands. They claimed Arunachal Pradesh, a lot of Nepal, Bhutan, and Myanmar as well. Neighboring countries are not going to be friendly.

How much of those were in part due to the dangers of the CCP? Without that outside threat, you may see reforms much sooner.

And it's no surprise the KMT claimed Tibet, parts of Tajikistan, Mongolia and other areas, they (and the CCP) were/are claiming the region of the Qing Dynasty, the most recently fallen Chinese Empire:


Bear in mind, the Qing Empire officially fell in 1912, so them claiming all that former territory isn't entirely unreasonable in the 1950s.

 

[LindyAF]

It's tragic, in retrospect, how close we came to not having to deal with international communism at all. If the White leadership had it a bit more together in Russia, if they'd got a bit more support, if the US leadership didn't basically cede so much of the World to the USSR after WW2...

 

[Sārthākā]

There wouldn't be a white terror at all had the KMT defeated the Communists in the 1930s.
The KMT had surrounded the CCP through blockhouses, using the strategy that their German military advisors suggested and it was working very well.
All the communists in China were basically trapped in their little Soviet, so once they've been destroyed that means communism has been pretty much purged from China.
There may be a few communist elements in the cities leftover from the Nanchang disaster, but they (if they did exist) are all that's left.

a KMT victory in the 30s would still result in a white terror. Soviet meddling and Chiang's own megalomania as well as the left-right split in the first united front played a role in the civil war becoming inevitable, however it was the KMT who forced the CPC's hand by massacring Shanghai Communists. According to China's Generalissimo and Forgotten Ally Chiang wrote of purging the entire country of communists and often forced the KMT armies to attack the Communist Army during the 2nd Sino-Japanese Army on purpose to keep them on their toes.
Nonetheless, a Nanchang 'disaster' by no means the destruction of communism in China. The Long March shows this in amplitude.

 

[Sārthākā]

How much of those were in part due to the dangers of the CCP? Without that outside threat, you may see reforms much sooner.

And it's no surprise the KMT claimed Tibet, parts of Tajikistan, Mongolia and other areas, they (and the CCP) were/are claiming the region of the Qing Dynasty, the most recently fallen Chinese Empire:
View attachment 506

Bear in mind, the Qing Empire officially fell in 1912, so them claiming all that former territory isn't entirely unreasonable in the 1950s.

Taiwan and the KMT still claim them till this day. It's been over a century.

 

[Buba]

@Sārthākā !
[menacing auntie voice]
Back to your books! Exams - you lazy boy! You will never become a doctor by 21 unless you study! And that would make my Poor Sister cry!
[auntie brandishes desi slipper ... ]

Fancy land claims going back thousands of years are nothing new.
A KMT led China can claim Tashkent, Kathmandu or Jakarta until it goes blue in the face - but unless it sends in the fleet (or tanks) - what does it matter?
White Terror/some sort of terror is likely simply as continuation of warlord/local elites and/or CCP suppression.

It's tragic, in retrospect, how close we came to not having to deal with international communism at all.

And whose bright idea was this? The oh so rightist leadership of Imperial Germany sending the sealed train with Lenin and his bunch of psychopats to Sweden ...

 

[BlackDragon98]

a KMT victory in the 30s would still result in a white terror. Soviet meddling and Chiang's own megalomania as well as the left-right split in the first united front played a role in the civil war becoming inevitable, however it was the KMT who forced the CPC's hand by massacring Shanghai Communists. According to China's Generalissimo and Forgotten Ally Chiang wrote of purging the entire country of communists and often forced the KMT armies to attack the Communist Army during the 2nd Sino-Japanese Army on purpose to keep them on their toes.
Nonetheless, a Nanchang 'disaster' by no means the destruction of communism in China. The Long March shows this in amplitude.

According to the OP's POD, there wouldn't be a Long March.
The Long March was the result of the KMT's failure to encircle CPC forces at Jiangxi Soviet.
The communists on the other hand, were downright brutal to anyone who wasn't loyal to the party.
There were a string of defections and surrenders during the Long March.

The source you write of is inaccurate.
I know of only one case where the KMT openly attacked the CPC.
The two sides generally operated on their own, as demonstrated by the Hundred Regiments offensive.
EDIT: This is the one case I was talking about.

New Fourth Army incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

And whose bright idea was this? The oh so rightist leadership of Imperial Germany sending the sealed train with Lenin and his bunch of psychopats to Sweden ...

At the time, they never thought that the Bolsheviks would succeed and take over all of Russia and it's periphery.
They just planned to use them to destabilize the region and prevent Russia from rejoining the war in any meaningful capacity.
Which was successful.
They just didn't predict the unforeseen consequences of their actions.

 

[S'task]

Taiwan and the KMT still claim them till this day. It's been over a century.

Well... sure? They still claim to be the rightful successor government to the Qing and so maintain the same territorial claims as the Qing. They have no reason to alter those claims either, since nobody recognizes them as the legitimate government of those regions anyway and them supplanting the CCP is highly unlikely, so it's just pointless flag waving like them claiming to be the legit government of China.

Now, if they declared formal independence and the international community recognized them, then they'd have reason to give up the claims on those regions, but so long as the status of Taiwan remains as it is...

 

[Circle of Willis]

These replies are great, thanks everyone.

As far as Tibet goes, my view is that it'd still be squished by the KMT eventually (perhaps in the '60s rather than the '50s as was the case historically, but it still happens regardless), and when that happens I don't think it'll become nearly as much of a cause-celebre in the West as the PRC occupation was. The KMT isn't Communist and almost certainly an ally of the West (if also possibly a rival to the USA) until the Cold War ends so I doubt many Westerners will sympathize with the Tibetans aside from Buddhist converts and/or hippie types - nobody even recognized Tibetan independence after Chiang was defeated on the mainland IRL, after all - and I also doubt they'd be as harsh on the Tibetan natives and their culture as the CCP so there's just less for people to get upset about overall.

I could see the Indians being upset about the annexation for geopolitical reasons (might a KMT-led China and Nehru-led India still end up coming to blows over Aksai Chin?), but for most Westerners who even care to learn about Tibet's existence ITL it'd likely just be seen as their great Asian ally snuffing out a minor historical curiosity in the pursuit of restoring national authority, or even ending feudalism in & bringing the torch of democracy to one of their backwater provinces.

How much of those were in part due to the dangers of the CCP? Without that outside threat, you may see reforms much sooner.

And it's no surprise the KMT claimed Tibet, parts of Tajikistan, Mongolia and other areas, they (and the CCP) were/are claiming the region of the Qing Dynasty, the most recently fallen Chinese Empire:
View attachment 506

Bear in mind, the Qing Empire officially fell in 1912, so them claiming all that former territory isn't entirely unreasonable in the 1950s.

Interesting map. I knew the ROC still claimed the old Qing borders even after they retreated to Taiwan, but I didn't know they also staked a claim on Singapore of all places.

a KMT victory in the 30s would still result in a white terror. Soviet meddling and Chiang's own megalomania as well as the left-right split in the first united front played a role in the civil war becoming inevitable, however it was the KMT who forced the CPC's hand by massacring Shanghai Communists. According to China's Generalissimo and Forgotten Ally Chiang wrote of purging the entire country of communists and often forced the KMT armies to attack the Communist Army during the 2nd Sino-Japanese Army on purpose to keep them on their toes.
Nonetheless, a Nanchang 'disaster' by no means the destruction of communism in China. The Long March shows this in amplitude.

According to the OP's POD, there wouldn't be a Long March.
The Long March was the result of the KMT's failure to encircle CPC forces at Jiangxi Soviet.
The communists on the other hand, were downright brutal to anyone who wasn't loyal to the party.
There were a string of defections and surrenders during the Long March.

The source you write of is inaccurate.
I know of only one case where the KMT openly attacked the CPC.
The two sides generally operated on their own, as demonstrated by the Hundred Regiments offensive.
EDIT: This is the one case I was talking about.

New Fourth Army incident - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

To add to this, the CCP was no stranger to attacking fellow Chinese during the Second Sino-Japanese War either. They let the National Revolutionary Army fight most of the field battles and thus absorb most of the casualties against Japan, while aggressively working to absorb or eliminate non-Communist guerrillas behind Japanese lines (ex. He Long's campaign against non-CCP-aligned resistance militias in Hubei Province throughout the late 1930s).

Anyway, I do agree that a total victory over the Jiangxi Soviet means a White Terror becomes unnecessary, because the Communists would've been pretty much totally destroyed then and there - the final encirclement campaign was trapping them quite effectively. Chiang's dictatorship would refocus on the warlords and Japanese incursions soon after dealing with the Reds, simply because those were the other obvious immediate threats to his continued governance of China.

Theoretically someone else could read the Communist Manifesto and propagate Marx's message a couple decades down the line, I guess, but good luck with doing that effectively after the entire CCP infrastructure and leadership got wiped out in the KMT's greatest sign that they will not tolerate Communism on Chinese soil ever again. Whoever this aspiring Mao 2.0 is, they'd first have to rebuild the Communist Party from scratch against a stronger and probably more unified KMT (as Chiang, no longer having to worry about the Communists and never tarnished by a Xi'an Incident since there are no Communists for him to be forced into allying with anymore, will likely have the resources with which to bring at least a few more warlords to heel).

 

[BlackDragon98]

To add to this, the CCP was no stranger to attacking fellow Chinese during the Second Sino-Japanese War either. They let the National Revolutionary Army fight most of the field battles and thus absorb most of the casualties against Japan, while aggressively working to absorb or eliminate non-Communist guerrillas behind Japanese lines (ex. He Long's campaign against non-CCP-aligned resistance militias in Hubei Province throughout the late 1930s).

True, but direct KMT vs. CPC conflict was none existent except for the New Fourth Army incident.
The CPC generally let the KMT fight the big battles and saved their strength for the next war (Chinese Civil War).
And you are correct about CPC forces eliminating guerillas that did not join them. However, this was quite limited because of the Communist position as they were confined to a small section of China.

Theoretically someone else could read the Communist Manifesto and propagate Marx's message a couple decades down the line, I guess, but good luck with doing that effectively after the entire CCP infrastructure and leadership got wiped out in the KMT's greatest sign that they will not tolerate Communism on Chinese soil ever again. Whoever this aspiring Mao 2.0 is, they'd first have to rebuild the Communist Party from scratch against a stronger and probably more unified KMT (as Chiang, no longer having to worry about the Communists and never tarnished by a Xi'an Incident since there are no Communists for him to be forced into allying with anymore, will likely have the resources with which to bring at least a few more warlords to heel).

An impossible uphill fight that will most likely end up with Mao 2.0 against a wall facing a firing squad.
Or with a noose around his neck.

 

[S'task]

Interesting map. I knew the ROC still claimed the old Qing borders even after they retreated to Taiwan, but I didn't know they also staked a claim on Singapore of all places.

I don't know if they actually do for certain, I just know that it used to be part of the Qing, so they may. My main point was that it was no great surprise the KMT claimed all those regions listed, those regions were not part of those other countries since time immemorable, rather, those were all land taken from the Qing after it fell.