What if the PLC, Danubian Principalities, and Crimean Khanate are teleported to the Pacific in 1600 AD?

[raharris1973]

What if frivolous ASBs teleport the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, the Danubian Principality vassal states of the Ottomans, and the Crimean Khanate/Nogai vassals of the Ottomans to the north central Pacific in 1600 AD?

To avoid them landing right on top of the Aleutians, Alaska, or northwest Canada, I am envisioning them not just being moved logitudinally into the western hemisphere, but also severally degrees south. That is shown on the global scale map. I tried to account for the distortion of relative sizes by making the "cut and pasted" land a little more "skinny" as I moved it more to the south in latitude.

<a href=""><img src="" title="source: imgur.com" /></a>

Here is a close-up of the the new mega-island piece of east-central Europe, now surrounded by Pacific waters:



And here is what what the introduction of the new "Ruthenian Sea" connecting the Baltic and Black Seas does to Europe:



The most powerful ruler in this new isolated landmass is the King of Poland, Sigismund III Vasa. He would have practically independent Zaporhizhian Cossacks as vassals/neighbors to the far southeast of his realm, and the Duke of Courland in the northwest of it. Due to ASB him, Ducal Prussia and its Hohenzollern Duke is left back in European waters. Not under his sovereignty at all are the Crimean and Nogai Tatars on the PLC's southeastern border. They had been Ottoman vassals, but that relationship is meaningless with contact and command cut off by such great distance. Similarly, the Princes of Transylvania, Moldavia, and Wallachia, Christians, unlike the Muslim Tatar Khans, had been vassals of the Sultan, but are now effectively independent.

Poland Lithuania, and the Danubian or Romanian Principalities are food surplus areas. Indeed, loss of customary export markets and sources of foreign luxury goods is a blow to the wealth and lifestyle of the great landowning nobles of the lands, but a boon for crafts and tradespeople who can try their hand at trying to substitute for imported luxuries.

Poland-Lithuania's isolation from international shipping lanes won't last forever. Indeed, I would expect that mathematicians and astronomers between a few of the top universities would calculate the likely new location of the land on the planet. Practical long-distance sailing experience, certainly in the waters they are in, is lacking, but encounters may happen with Spanish galleons or something similar with a couple decades.

The Crimean Horde's "economic model" is upset. They can continue to raid for slaves and exploit slave labor for farms and construction projects in their settlements, but they have no larger Ottoman and Islamic world market to sell captives onto, nor can they purchase arms nor recruit warriors from other Islamic states. The Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth has many tasks to accomplish in terms of controlling its vast territories, but has good odds over the coming decades of mounting a defense against the Tatars and grinding them down into mere clients of the state if the szlachta and magnates whose estates and tenants are continually damaged by their raids are sufficiently motivated.

While sinking into a trade-deprived "poverty" for the elite, the low-cost of food should support a basic healthy subsistence for a growing population of subjects. And Poland-Lithuania will generally be finding that no neighbors (of major significance) are good neighbors, escaping further direct contact with the Ottomans, spillover from the 30 Years War and European Religious Wars in general, wars with Sweden, and with Muscovy. This political/geopolitical aspect of the supernatural event is merciful, as Poland will not have to suffer through the "Deluge". The Danubian/Romanian Principalities should be manageable neighbors that Poland can handle largely diplomatically, and that Poland at this time shares many values with, the bigger conflicts will be with Tatars and Cossacks, but the threat levels should all be lower than Ottomans, Muscovites, Swedes.

Back in Europe, the creation of a new inland sea where Poland, Romania, and the Tatars used to be opens up new, more direct trade routes between England, Scandinavia, Germany, and Russia, the Ottoman Empire, and the Caucasia, and at only one-step removed, Persia and Central Asia. To an extent, at this moment of Russian weakness, during the post-Rurikid Tsardom of Boris Godunov, the absence of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth and it armies is a mercy, reducing the severity of the "Time of Troubles". Muscovy-Russia is not invaded/occupied from the west. Nor does it have to worry about Crimean Tatar raiding from the southwest. It has a built in "window to the sea" and trade with the west. It still has to face the challenges of being a neighbor and rival of Sweden.

However, while chances are well north of fifty-fifty that after the Zemsky Sobor and Zemstvo Council ultimately select the Romanovs as the new dynasty and they get settled in, they will go for an autocratic/absolutist regime, there is a chance that a Russia with many fewer land threats and open to see trade may keep more of an ongoing role for representative institutions.

The sudden disappearance of Poland certainly will create a huge market opportunity for Russian grain estates, hemp farms and lumber yards to make sales to Western European countries. Grain prices will shoot up in Europe, possibly increasing unrest over the high level there already was on the continent, but also presenting profit opportunities for any country with a surplus.

Over the long-run for Russia, it will never have any border lands with Germany, Austria, Hungary, or Ottoman Turkey in Europe, which will reshape its history immensely, making it more of a maritime and Asian power. Where Russia has contact with the Ottomans it will be on the Caucasus side, and only the straits and onward access to the Med will make the Ottomans more interesting than the Persians to the Russians.

As for the Ottomans, they lose the tribute of the Crimean and Danubian vassals. I'm not sure how much of the Janissary Corps and general Devsirme they were getting from the latter. They will tax western Hungary as long as they can hold it, but the Habsburgs will fight to get it back when able. But, an eventual Holy League would never have Russia nor Poland in it to help the Habsburgs.

But before we even get there, we have to consider the impact on the Thirty Years War, of there being a big eastward extension of the Baltic Sea, instead of Poland.

Additionally, an interesting factor is that although both Brandenburg and East Prussia, now an island, are under Hohenzollerns, they are under different branches of the family. As an island, it seems like East Prussia would be a prime target of the navally minded and developed Swedes for expansion, and the Hohenzollerns might take so long in preparing a counter or be so lacking in the building blocks of a naval capability they might lose East Prussia for good.

 

[raharris1973]

And here's another version of pretty much the same basic idea.

I'll call it, "it's so easy, even a Saxon can do it"

Here, the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, but not the extra places like the Crimean Tatars, or Danubian Principalities, get teleported to the Pacific in 1700, right after Peter the Great's Treaty with the Ottomans.

Augustus the Strong of Saxony is the King of Poland at the time. So, the ASB teleports the Electorate of Saxony along with Poland-Lithuania to be an island neighbor.

In Europe, they are replaced by Pacific Ocean floor and water, so Poland becomes the Great Ruthenian Sea, and Saxony becomes the Saxon salt lake.





So Poland, in the Pacific, without neighbors, should be safe from partition, even with Saxon Kings and internal use of the liberum veto. As island neighbors, Saxony and Poland-Lithuania should be very complimentary. Poland as the agricultural center, Saxony as the craft and industrial center.

Back in Europe, Peter has the big "window to the west" he always wanted without having to get into the Great Northern War to get it. All Poland has become an extension of the Baltic Sea, and ships of all western nations can now come to trade in many places on Russia's newly much lengthened shoreline.

Without the Great Northern War and the struggle for Ingria and building a capital there, Peter can more easily just move the capital to Kiev, which is now practically on the coast, or Pskov, which may also be. Smolensk is quite close to the coastline and probably could be connected by a canal.

Brandenburg-Prussia would be in an interesting situation. Its two main eponymous parts would now be separated physically by water, instead of Polish land. That would probably strengthen the Great Elector's interest in having a navy. This is the one who did have a few colonies, and now well over fifty percent of his border would be island or peninsular coastline. This would be accentuated by the disappearance of Saxony and its replacement by a great salt lake.

There is a potential environmental risk for Brandenburg and all north Germany from the Saxon salt lake by the way. It stands in the path of the Elbe River and the Oder River. Since Saxony it swapped with a patch of Pacific Ocean, the ocean water is saltwater. If it the water level is not high, well, the flow, downriver of the Elbe and Oder is interrupted. But as the water level of the lake increases from rain, or from the upriver portion of the Elbe in Bohemia, or the Oder in Silesia, that would raise the level of Saxon lake. To my knowledge, it is not like the freshwater all stays floating on the top and floats on the surface of the lake and moves downstream. Rather it would mix with saltwater, and become brackish, and flow through downriver channels.
I would think that could cause dangers of excessive salination of the where Elbe and Oder river water is used for farming and irrigation purposes.

 

[Buba]

Both
Manilla Galleons find this mega island immediatelly. By running aground on it
You are missing/underplaying Persia which holds Azerbaijan and east Georgia. in 1600 it might push to its NW more as to gain access to the oceansea, more interesting than the Ottoman-locked Black Sea.

1600
In Time of Troubles Muscovy may get hammered by Sweden more than in OTL.
Prussia was to enter personal union with Brandenburg at death of Albrecht II. However, Sweden, Denmark or United Provinces could prop up its rebelious Estates and keep it spearate and/or vassalised. With PLC gone the principality is the Great Powers' plaything.

1700
Neither Elbe nor Oder were used for irrigation. No need, there is enough rain for crops.
Ruthenian Sea makes for wetter and even more productive south Russian wheat belt. This make Russia superpower, it come and make deathcamp filled KGBistan of gayropa earlier.

 

[Batrix2070]

1600
The scenario is interesting, even suitable as a basis for a story. I'm tempted to try to work something out with it. But to the point.

Here the situation is simple, Sigismund III, taking advantage of the collapse of the Magnate power base, uses this to strengthen his power based on the middle nobility, centralizing the state.

The Peak of Power prevailing at the time, by the way, and the grassroots energy that characterizes the nobility of the time causes a momentum that must find an outlet. One can expect a quick war with the Crimean Khanate to solve the afflicting PLC problem once and for all. In this way, the threat to the Rus' territories disappears, allowing the full potential of these lands to be unleashed, hitherto constantly hampered by incessant looters' invasions.

Other important factors are Danzig and the Zaporozhian Cossacks. The former will finance, on their own, exploratory expeditions to the West to find any land and restore the city's profitable Trade. It is safe to assume that they will reach the still-isolationist Japan relatively soon, as well as begin Danzig merchants to compete with Portuguese and Spanish merchants in this region of the world, probably quite successfully displacing them due to the much closer location of their base.

Gdansk will most likely be the first to form a powerful navy to protect its interests. The Commonwealth Navy is more likely to be the period of Wladyslaw IV "The Sailor", who will take advantage of the fact that his father secured the Polish continent for amen.

Zaporian Cossacks, on the other hand, will be the second force that will push for overseas expeditions. Mainly as pirates. Let off the leash they will attack the Tartars and play a major role in their conquest. Then, in turn, they will move into the Pacific, becoming a terror to the inhabitants of all the islands n. It is safe to assume that some band of Cossacks under the command of some Hetmatn (maybe Bogdan Khmelnytsky) will discover and conquer Hawaii. They will thus form a separate kingdom from the Crown of Poland and will be a nuisance to the Spaniards both on the sea routes connecting Asia with America and invade the Spanish colonies themselves in the New World.

Some of the Cossacks are also likely to try to establish their own settlements in North America as the ongoing colonization of the lands of Rus and Zaporozhye push the Cossacks out of those areas.

The last overseas power in the Republic that will be the first to push for naval expeditions will, of course, be Kurland.

The same thing that OTL's Ketlers tried unsuccessfully to accomplish will now be done with Success. I see the Frozen North as their direction: Chukotka, Kamchatka, Alaska, Oregon, British Columbia, etc.

In addition to this, in time they will be joined by what more ambitious Magnates who want to carve out power bases for themselves away from the monarchical power and the Sejm, what more ambitious nobles and even clever people from the pits.

It is possible that former vassals of the Sultan now vassals of the King in the south will try to carve out their own colonial empires. Such Austrialia or Papua and New Guinea will be discovered and colonized earlier and at the same time will be divided among ambitious princes.

The ultimate effect, of course, will be to shift the weight of the center of economic influence in the Pacific toward the Polish Continent, pushing Spain and Portugal out of East Asia by virtue of the fact that it is far from their main bases. It is even possible that Japan will not be able to close itself off to the world because of Poland's actions wanting convenient ports close to the Asian continent. Much will be helped here by Ieyasu's own hostile attitude toward Christianity, the 1614 edict could serve as a casus belli for either Sigismund III or his son Ladislaus to initiate a war to protect Christians in Japan.

In the case of the Americas, there will be settlement of the west coast much earlier than OTL, although it is likely that most colonization will end against the wall of the Rocky Mountains. It is possible that in Canada there will be a transition further east to the Great Plains, called in this world the New Steppe, the new Tartary. Nevertheless, it is certain that if the U.S. were to emerge, it would by no means occupy the West Coast.

 

[raharris1973]

Manilla Galleons find this mega island immediatelly. By running aground on it

It is particularly long and tall, so hard to "miss" and easy to run aground on. Especially the 1600 version of the landmass that extends north to south from southern Estonia down to Wallachia. And the 1700 version, extending from Courland to Galicia & west-central Ukraine, while not as *tall* is not too shabby.

Not sure the Polish landmass has too many trade complementaries with New Spain and Spanish America in general. It makes for a safer port of call mainly on the return rout of the galleons [the Asia westbound routes were more tropical and Philippines aimed]. I don't think Spanish America was generally in food deficit. In 1600 in particular, both Spanish America, and Pacific Poland are mineral and precious metal rich.

Pacific Poland should have specie reserves to buy silks and other luxuries from East Asia, somewhat as a substitute for lost West European ones, so perhaps Chinoiserie becomes a fashionable thing earlier in the region. East Asia was not dependent on *overseas* grain and lumber trades, but in times of shortage and famine, and China was hit with several in the 1600s, perhaps the Poles could make a mint on big grain sales for the China market.

In the 1700 situation, most of these factors are similar, except Pacific Poland has less minerals and silver from Transylvania and less grain from Wallachia. However, it has more craft, clock and machine work from Saxony. Saxony may have a good smuggling trade with the west coast of Spanish America for that reason, as a nearer, less politically fraught, supplier than Britain or Netherlands.

You are missing/underplaying Persia which holds Azerbaijan and east Georgia. in 1600 it might push to its NW more as to gain access to the oceansea, more interesting than the Ottoman-locked Black Sea.

Indeed, in 1600 Safavid Persia is still a subject not a mere object.

We should not necessarily count it out in 1700, either. Is that too early for Nader Shah? He was a baller, and I would not put it past *him* to try to open a Caucasian "window to the west" for open trade in weapons and technology with states other than the Russians and Ottomans.

1600
In Time of Troubles Muscovy may get hammered by Sweden more than in OTL.
Prussia was to enter personal union with Brandenburg at death of Albrecht II. However, Sweden, Denmark or United Provinces could prop up its rebelious Estates and keep it spearate and/or vassalised. With PLC gone the principality is the Great Powers' plaything.

Why is Sweden hammering Muscovy more than OTL? Because Sweden gets extra naval approaches to Muscovite land? Because OTL Sweden and PLC wasted time and energy neutralizing each other?

On Ducal (East) Prussia, you are right, the personal union with Brandenburg is not guaranteed to be successful, Sweden, Denmark, even Netherlands could sabotage it. (although did Netherlands really ever have a feud with Brandenburg). Now if all the outside powers act with a low investment, mainly by action to support and gain support of local Estates, there is a chance it could end up back with the Hohenzollerns, if the Estates get tired of Swedish, Danish or Dutch terms of governance. But that only works if the Swedes, for example, give them a choice and don't hold them down for over a century with a fit garrison, settlers, administrators, clerics.

1700
Neither Elbe nor Oder were used for irrigation. No need, there is enough rain for crops.
Ruthenian Sea makes for wetter and even more productive south Russian wheat belt. This make Russia superpower, it come and make deathcamp filled KGBistan of gayropa earlier.

On the Elbe and Oder, even if rain is adequate for all agricultural water supply, I wonder if heavily saltwater rivers flowing will spoil some of the top soils close to the river bank, and render some reservoirs or aquifers close-by non-potable for human and animal consumption, so a little bit of productivity damage and Estate damage and damage to some town's viability.

On the boosted Russian agriculture leading to Russian superpowerdom then leading to Putinesque wet dream tropes, I would question it a little. Greater Russian power, and freedom of action of the global stage logically follows from this situation. Russian tyranny over Europe does not. Russian land-based *military* dominance over Europe is not made any easier than OTL, on the contrary, Russian armies, in Europe (save Scandinavia and the narrow isthmuses of Novorossiya/Crimean Tartary) need a significant sea-crossing journey to reach European battlefields. Russia is free to invest *much* more in its naval power, with its central cities more protected by water and the northwest and southwest land approached much more narrow. To a great extent, Russia and the Russian fleet still need to be highly concerned about the Turkish straits blocking the path to the Mediterranean beyond (and Gibraltar and Suez and Bad al-Mandeb beyond that) and the Danish Straits blocking the North Sea/Atlantic path. Russia is also much freer to focus its land focus south and east within Asia.

 

[raharris1973]

1600
The scenario is interesting, even suitable as a basis for a story. I'm tempted to try to work something out with it. But to the point.

Here the situation is simple, Sigismund III, taking advantage of the collapse of the Magnate power base, uses this to strengthen his power based on the middle nobility, centralizing the state.

The Peak of Power prevailing at the time, by the way, and the grassroots energy that characterizes the nobility of the time causes a momentum that must find an outlet. One can expect a quick war with the Crimean Khanate to solve the afflicting PLC problem once and for all. In this way, the threat to the Rus' territories disappears, allowing the full potential of these lands to be unleashed, hitherto constantly hampered by incessant looters' invasions.

Other important factors are Danzig and the Zaporozhian Cossacks. The former will finance, on their own, exploratory expeditions to the West to find any land and restore the city's profitable Trade. It is safe to assume that they will reach the still-isolationist Japan relatively soon, as well as begin Danzig merchants to compete with Portuguese and Spanish merchants in this region of the world, probably quite successfully displacing them due to the much closer location of their base.

Gdansk will most likely be the first to form a powerful navy to protect its interests. The Commonwealth Navy is more likely to be the period of Wladyslaw IV "The Sailor", who will take advantage of the fact that his father secured the Polish continent for amen.

Zaporian Cossacks, on the other hand, will be the second force that will push for overseas expeditions. Mainly as pirates. Let off the leash they will attack the Tartars and play a major role in their conquest. Then, in turn, they will move into the Pacific, becoming a terror to the inhabitants of all the islands n. It is safe to assume that some band of Cossacks under the command of some Hetmatn (maybe Bogdan Khmelnytsky) will discover and conquer Hawaii. They will thus form a separate kingdom from the Crown of Poland and will be a nuisance to the Spaniards both on the sea routes connecting Asia with America and invade the Spanish colonies themselves in the New World.

Some of the Cossacks are also likely to try to establish their own settlements in North America as the ongoing colonization of the lands of Rus and Zaporozhye push the Cossacks out of those areas.

The last overseas power in the Republic that will be the first to push for naval expeditions will, of course, be Kurland.

The same thing that OTL's Ketlers tried unsuccessfully to accomplish will now be done with Success. I see the Frozen North as their direction: Chukotka, Kamchatka, Alaska, Oregon, British Columbia, etc.

In addition to this, in time they will be joined by what more ambitious Magnates who want to carve out power bases for themselves away from the monarchical power and the Sejm, what more ambitious nobles and even clever people from the pits.

It is possible that former vassals of the Sultan now vassals of the King in the south will try to carve out their own colonial empires. Such Austrialia or Papua and New Guinea will be discovered and colonized earlier and at the same time will be divided among ambitious princes.

The ultimate effect, of course, will be to shift the weight of the center of economic influence in the Pacific toward the Polish Continent, pushing Spain and Portugal out of East Asia by virtue of the fact that it is far from their main bases. It is even possible that Japan will not be able to close itself off to the world because of Poland's actions wanting convenient ports close to the Asian continent. Much will be helped here by Ieyasu's own hostile attitude toward Christianity, the 1614 edict could serve as a casus belli for either Sigismund III or his son Ladislaus to initiate a war to protect Christians in Japan.

In the case of the Americas, there will be settlement of the west coast much earlier than OTL, although it is likely that most colonization will end against the wall of the Rocky Mountains. It is possible that in Canada there will be a transition further east to the Great Plains, called in this world the New Steppe, the new Tartary. Nevertheless, it is certain that if the U.S. were to emerge, it would by no means occupy the West Coast.

Very interesting scenario!

One note on Gdansk. I do not think Gdansk will be wrecked by this feature, but Gdansk will lose its riverine connection and status as the outlet of riverine trade?

Why? Because, if I am not mistaken, Ducal (East) Prussia's southwest border directly touched the Vistula river for several miles. And East Prussia is left back in Europe's neighborhood as an island. So this means the right bank of the Vistula river, where East Prussia used to start, abruptly disappears, and falls away, with the local Pacific Ocean replacing that space to sea level. So the Vistula river probably terminates with a big water right there, and the river water, having gone down the falls, stops its flow down the regular downriver channels to the north through Gdansk. So those downriver channels become mud flats that eventually dry out.

Now the loss of the river trade does not have to be a killing blow to Gdansk. It still has its seaport and docks and everything built in the city. But it means that the last kilometers/miles of anything that had been transported by river need to be ported off the Vistula before the falls and ported onto land for wagon transit to Gdansk.

Of course this invites the Poles to make a choice of alternate construction projects - Dredging and digging down the waterfall to make a new, smoother outlet for the Vistula south of Warmia that in time will grow into a new port that will outclass Gdansk.

Or, build extensive dam works at the top of the Vistula falls to contain their waters, and dredge the river bank to displace the river flow west for several miles, to keep the waters "on track" to flow down their traditional channels through the lowest reaches of the historic lower Vistula through Gdansk harbor.

 

[Buba]

Because OTL Sweden and PLC wasted time and energy neutralizing each other?

Exactly.

if I am not mistaken, Ducal (East) Prussia's southwest border directly touched the Vistula river for several miles.

You are correct. But the land is flat. Nevertheless, excellent point - the Vistula ends near Kwidzyń/Marienwerder. This probably kills off Danzig and Elbing as major ports. Even if they can easily be reached by boat, the distribuaries of the Vistula being easy to dredge (if even that is necessary), barges might not like to brave the Pacific waves. Especially as DRUMROLL DUM!DUM!DUM! the area has become tidal. The Baltic is tideless and all harbour infrastrcture is built accordingly. Gdańsk, Elbląg, the Kurland ports - these could be heavily damaged by the swings in sea level. The Żuławy polders, partly below sea level, are almost certain to be destroyed by the tides (and saltification).

I'd not expect Cossaks to become ocean faring pirates. They have neither the technology to build sea going craft, nor resources for them, or navigation experitise.

 

[raharris1973]

We should not necessarily count it out in 1700, either. Is that too early for Nader Shah? He was a baller, and I would not put it past *him* to try to open a Caucasian "window to the west" for open trade in weapons and technology with states other than the Russians and Ottomans.

1700 is way too early for Nader Shah (reign started in 1736) and certainly for Karim Khan Zand (reign started 1751). Instead, it is under one of the later, lame, harem-raised Safavids, an unimpressive dude and captive of the Hotakis in the last years of his life.

 

[Buba]

As to Persia - depending on how far east the Nogai Tatars roamed in 1600, the Caspian Sea basin could be connected to the world ocean.
DID SOME CHECKING

Sadly, no - the Lesser Nogai Horde subordiante to Crimea did not reach the Caspian Depression.
However, maybe the North Caucasus is wetter and it is possible to use the Kuma and Manych Rivers (visible on the map to the left of Maliy Nogai as a river and lake) for commerce.

 

[Agent23]

This helps the Ottomans in the long run, which instantly makes it a bad timeline!

 

[raharris1973]

This helps the Ottomans in the long run, which instantly makes it a bad timeline!

I mean does it absolutely *have* to?

It will not be getting a widening a creeping land border in Europe with Russia, which should be a security advantage for the Ottomans, OK.

But the Ottomans will not benefit from an entirely closed or closable Black Sea, and in the 1600 scenario, in particular, will have their Anatolian coast, Istanbul, and Rumelia exposed to naval attacks by the navies of all Northern Europeans including the English, French, Scandinavians, Dutch, and now the German states and Russians who will build fleets for the new Ruthenian sea.

 

[Buba]

1600
Why would the Maritime Powers attack the Ottomans? For all we know they could be busy shipping in African slaves (replacing previous supplies from PLC and Russia) and loving it.

 

[ATP]

1.1600 - we had good King,and magnates would lost most of moneys,so - stronger Poland ,and crushed Tatars.Becouse Poland would not need to fear about Sweden and Moscov,and send entire army for them.

Later - colonies in America,maybe Australia,too.

Navy - Gdańsk had strong navy,and Kettlers have some,too.King tried to create one in OTL,now it would happen.

When 1637 catholic rebellion happen,they could be evacuated to Poland.

Poland would never fall here,and USA never become superpower,if they even exist.

Europe - Habsburgs would lost 30 years war - in 1619 hungarians almost defeated them,and widraw only when polish mercaneries attacked Hungary.
Persia indeed could remain strong here.

2.1700 - Poland could still take part of America,and remind independent,but much weaker.

 

[Agent23]

When 1637 catholic rebellion happen,they could be evacuated to Poland.

Maybe that will also get some countries in the far east to be more outward looking, too.

Now tell me more about the Japano-Polish and Korean-Polish mixing we will get.

 

[Batrix2070]

One note on Gdansk.

I would rather expect Gdansk to remain important and influential for a simple reason. It was the largest and richest city in the Republic, hence even with the disaster that Transfer will make, it will have an upfront advantage over the yet-to-be existing competition because it is already an existing port.

In time, new ports will be built in Greater Poland or Lesser Poland, creating much shorter routes, but this is a matter of many decades. First the port infrastructure must be built, then the skills necessary for shipping must develop. (Incidentally, the second stage may be shortened, simply by attracting Portuguese and Spanish sailors willing to settle down, which is very possible).

In general, for Gdansk, Elblag or Riga, competition will not arise so soon. The first 50 years will be quiet, only from the second half of the century these new ports should begin to provide more serious competition and only the eighteenth century will make these old ports one of the many port cities on Polonia ( the Polish continent)

I'd not expect Cossaks to become ocean faring pirates. They have neither the technology to build sea going craft, nor resources for them, or navigation experitise.

Because it's more a matter of time than that right away. First they will start innocently, trying to reach the Nogai Tatars from the sea. Then they will try their hand at larger bodies of water, then they will discover Hawaii which lies relatively nearby. Only when they start sailing to Hawaii without too much trouble will they begin to venture out on their pirate voyages. Everything is actually a matter of willingness rather than ability. Each of the obstacles you mentioned are as possible to overcome. Especially since some in Ruthenia (or the Crown) may see the attempt to divert them to pirate voyages as an excellent way to give them an occupation that will not harm their interests in the Commonwealth.

Especially since the intensity of Cossack sea expeditions was just the first quarter of the 16th century. What was the reason for their raids then will exist here, and I doubt that the King would be satisfied with their raids on the new vassals to Romania, while the Tartars will be a target for a short time before eventually the Commonwealth Army together with the Cossacks beat the Tartars.

 

[Buba]

Korean-Polish mixing we will get.

I'd bet that kimchi-bigos will be explosive ...

 

[raharris1973]

1600
Why would the Maritime Powers attack the Ottomans? For all we know they could be busy shipping in African slaves (replacing previous supplies from PLC and Russia) and loving it.

touche. Some will make those profits, resulting in the addition of a West African and Malagasy element to the Ottoman slave pool and harems.

As for attacks, few "traditional" maritime powers, western and Scandinavian, would be routine or constant attackers of the Ottomans.....unless the latter make themselves into a pirate nuisance. But some new, formerly more land-bound, naval powers will be fairly often in conflict with the Ottomans. Most of all the Austrian Habsburgs, who will raise fleets from the coasts of Silesia and Upper Hungary to supplement their land forces on the central Hungarian-Croatian front. The Russians will grow their fleet and, even if they have less interest in the Balkans, will use the fleet as an adjunct of any rivalry with the Persians or Ottomans over influence/control over the Caucasus. And, since Austria-Bohemia and Russia are much more forested than the Ottoman Empire, in addition to integrated with western talent pools, they should be generally outcompeting the Ottomans in both fleet-building and sailing skills.

Persia indeed could remain strong here.

Why so? They import English, German, Swedish guns and mercenaries through ports in the Caucasus (in Georgia) that lets them hold stronger against Ottomans now and Russians later? It seems to me, long run Russians will be able to give them *too much attention*, and if Ottomans are dealing with Habsburgs who lost 30 Years War, Ottomans could be a bigger challenge and that could include cutting off their Georgian/Caucasian ports.

When 1637 catholic rebellion happen,they could be evacuated to Poland.

Oh, you mean Shimabara Catholic rebellion in Japan? Or something else?

Maybe that will also get some countries in the far east to be more outward looking, too.

Now tell me more about the Japano-Polish and Korean-Polish mixing we will get.

Well, it wouldn't open up Japan. It would sour Japan-Polish relations. Japan would seen Poland as subversive. But with exile/refugees living in Poland, that's interesting. Japan would try to restrict trade to the Dutch, and there would be a market for Japanese goods in Poland, not just from nobles, but from the Japanese refugees who can afford such things. Although some would have skills to produce some Japanese crafts in country.

I think Korea was at least as closed as Japan, but there were some historic converts, maybe some of them take refuge in Poland.

 

[raharris1973]

Looking at the society of 1600 continent of Polonia - (Sarmatia? if people want to be all classicist about it?)

It is interesting because the PLC government will likely, as multiple suggest, defeat and crush the Crimean and Nogai Tatars to end the slave raiding threats, keep the Cossacks busy, and bring land into estates.

Then the governments main concern, outside of the governing system itself, is the Cossacks, who should have less room for maneuver without being able to gain allies, and the PLC royal levies being better armed.

As noted earlier, Transylvania, Moldavia, and Wallachia *could* try to fight the PLC, but they wouldn't win or be very successful. They have no hope without internal divisions or support within the Commonwealth, and their elites and princes likely know this in advance, so with average common sense, they will not fight much. The elites probably have a pretty good understanding of each other.

So then power struggles are between King and magnates. As noted, magnate revenues decline with loss or at least distancing-caused reduction of export markets, which should strengthen the King and towns by comparison. However, rural estates should get surges of income to the extent that trans-Pacific exports are feasible in times of famine and shortage in China.

But an interesting thing is that once the Tatars, Cossacks, and magnates and szlachta are all to a degree under control, they are not likely exterminated to the last man, by what it is a fairly tolerant, pragmatic state. Cossacks worked as hirelings for the state at times, Lipka Tatars worked for the state in OTL. These former menacing enemies and tough guys can hire themselves out in military service to the King and was bodyguards and property guards to the magnates and greater Szlachta.

But there we get into an oddity of this big political area with these multiple warrior classes with no real substantial wars to fight, kind of like the Samurai class under the peaceful condition of the Tokugawa Shogunate.

So warriors, except for those who do pirate or gun boating abroad, become more like domestic enforcers, bureaucrats, and men of leisure than true soldiers.

Meanwhile, while Catholicism is the preferred and patronized state religion in the PLC and Danubian principalities, all have strong religious toleration laws and customs for multiple Christian denominations and non-Christian religions.

Weakening of the influence of the great nobility, and the need for a degree of "import-substitution industrialization" improves the lot of the crafts, guilds, towns, and middle classes compared to OTL.

But essentially, the result is a society where armed force, and the law, is set up for the benefit of the King, and a variety of ruling and middle classes, from townspeople to Jews of all religions, to freebooting military minorities, to nobles and landholders of all religions, clergy, merchants, organized to keep control of, and make sure all the "national plumbing" keeps flowing downstream onto the simple farming serf and peasant masses, mostly Catholic and Orthodox Christian.

The last will rarely starve because of cheap food abundance, and will multiply in a roomy country, but the society is not set up at all for their benefit, to rise, people will need to escape from those farming occupations.


----I think the same applies, without a lot of alteration, to the situation in 1700, except the dominance of Catholicism is a bit tighter and tolerance of Protestantism is lesser. But Saxony brings a Protestant element. There are also fewer food export opportunities to China in this century, perhaps more to Japan (via Deshima) and Russian Asia.----

 

[Buba]

There are also fewer food export opportunities to China in this century, perhaps more to Japan (via Deshima) and Russian Asia.----

How are you getting any bulk goods to Russian Asia?

 

[raharris1973]

How are you getting any bulk goods to Russian Asia?

Post 1700, when Russia has a Pacific coast, it has some coastal outposts and ports, if not Khabarovsk, a bit north. PLC sailing ships can go there with sacks of dried grain and salt pork in summertime, and collect payment in Nerchinsk silver and exotic furs that score high prices.