What if the Shimabara Rebellion was successful?

[Circle of Willis]

Context. Since Shirou Amakusa & friends conquering all of Japan seems so exceedingly unlikely as to be impossible and the shogunate has already imposed sakoku and became intractably hostile toward Christianity by 1637 (such that them changing to a policy of religious tolerance seems equally impossible), I'll instead qualify the baseline for the rebels' success as 'independent Catholic Kyushu for at least the next 100-200 years'.

 

[gral]

Don't know nearly enough to really answer, but I'd guess no. It's been 34 years since the Tokugawa have taken and been consolidating power. I suspect the rebels have too high hurdles to clear, even if the objective is 'merely' Kyushu.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Could the rebels have gotten any meaningful help from the Spanish and Portuguese East Indies to even the odds? IIRC the shogunate forces got support from the Protestant Dutch historically, after all.

 

[CarlManvers2019]

I'm surprised this was even a thing, lots of stuff in history that sounds surprisingly convincing

All I know of Shirou Amakusa was that they based a character off him for Fate Apocrypha

 

[ATP]

Context. Since Shirou Amakusa & friends conquering all of Japan seems so exceedingly unlikely as to be impossible and the shogunate has already imposed sakoku and became intractably hostile toward Christianity by 1637 (such that them changing to a policy of religious tolerance seems equally impossible), I'll instead qualify the baseline for the rebels' success as 'independent Catholic Kyushu for at least the next 100-200 years'.

No,unless they got most of local daimio on their side,which is impossible,or get help of foreign army,which also is impossible.
All they could is to take more castles,hold them and built ships to evacuate to, let say,Philiphines.

But - there is good manga Amakusa 1637 when few SI from current Japan come back in time,replaced chief of rebels and try to defeat local lord and then negotiate with shogun.Manga is good,but not finished yet.

 

[Circle of Willis]

Curious, what exactly is keeping the Spanish and/or Portuguese (at the time of the rebellion, still united under Habsburg rule) from sending a fleet - if not an expeditionary force - to assist the rebels? The Dutch managed to provide naval and artillery support to the shogunal army in the same conflict.

Also, I just searched up Amakusa 1637, nice recommendation. I'll have to give that manga a read soon.

 

[stevep]

Curious, what exactly is keeping the Spanish and/or Portuguese (at the time of the rebellion, still united under Habsburg rule) from sending a fleet - if not an expeditionary force - to assist the rebels? The Dutch managed to provide naval and artillery support to the shogunal army in the same conflict.

Also, I just searched up Amakusa 1637, nice recommendation. I'll have to give that manga a read soon.

Just my 5p worth but at this time Spain is already past its peak and is very heavily involved in both trying to support their Austrian cousins in the 30 years war and also fighting the French themselves, as well as the Dutch who had a powerful fleet and economy. They might also be clashing with the Ottomans at the same time. Japan was a long way away and a relatively minor interest for the Portuguese, who were already suffering heavily from Dutch pressure around their empire and feeling abandon and abused by Madrid.

As such it would need a substantial force, sent in time which might be difficult with the communications at the time, to alter the outcome and almost certainly make the rest of Japan bitterly hostile to this foreign incursion. As such it would be a very expensive operation to perform and would very likely be even more expensive to maintain this Catholic foothold in the face of Japanese opposition. Especially since don't forget that Japan was only just turning inwards so there was no great technological gulf. Plus such a Spanish hostage to fortune is likely to attract Dutch opposition as OTL so the veyy likely result is that sooner [probably] or later [less likely] the Christian lodgement is crushed and the Dutch gain the only limited access to the Japanese market. I.e. you get the OTL result a little later but with considerable Spanish/Portuguese losses in gold and possibly men and ships as well.

Checking the Portuguese_Restoration_War-Events_leading_to_revolution there was already tension with Portugal feeling increasingly isolated and ignored in the union so there was tension there. As such even if the Spanish monarchy found out about the rebellion in time to aid it I suspect they would have decided it wasn't worthwhile an investment.

Steve

 

[Circle of Willis]

Hmm, I see. So then it seems the best POD for a Christian Japan (either in part or full) and/or serious intervention in the region by the Catholic powers would be one during the Sengoku period or at latest before the Siege of Osaka, not Shimabara.

 

[stevep]

Hmm, I see. So then it seems the best POD for a Christian Japan (either in part or full) and/or serious intervention in the region by the Catholic powers would be one during the Sengoku period or at latest before the Siege of Osaka, not Shimabara.

I must admit I don't know enough about the period but unless you can see somehow Catholicism becoming the dominating faith of Japan, which I suspect is unlikely, it needs to find some way to become accepted as a minority culture in Japan. Which would probably mean a break with Rome as otherwise its going to be seen as an agent of a foreign political/religious player. Which is always going to make it vulnerable, even if there's no actual control by Rome.

 

[Circle of Willis]

I must admit I don't know enough about the period but unless you can see somehow Catholicism becoming the dominating faith of Japan, which I suspect is unlikely, it needs to find some way to become accepted as a minority culture in Japan. Which would probably mean a break with Rome as otherwise its going to be seen as an agent of a foreign political/religious player. Which is always going to make it vulnerable, even if there's no actual control by Rome.

Admittedly, what got me first considering the possibility of a Christian Japan was an Otomo campaign I'd finished in Shogun 2 Total War, so I really don't know all or even most of the ins and outs of feudal Japan either. But the Catholics have a successful record of assimilating the practices of other religions into their Christian framework in order to smooth over the proselytization process, and the Jesuits in particular seemed good at this during the age of exploration. They had some success spreading the faith in both China and Japan before events outside their control (the Pope's ruling against them in the Chinese rites controversy and the rise of staunchly anti-Christian successors to Nobunaga, respectively) happened to derail the progress they'd made.

Perhaps if a Catholic or Catholic-friendly daimyo, such as said Otomo clan or Oda Nobunaga, had decisively prevailed over all comers and consolidated power at the end of the Sengoku period, they could've pulled it off in conjunction with a slightly more accommodationist Catholic hierarchy (tall order during the Counter-Reformation, I know). It's a little outside the original scope of this thread: but I think it'd be interesting if the Catholic Church in Japan ended up venerating Saint Amaterasu, blessed-but-totally-not-divine progenitor of the ruling dynasty, or something along those lines.

 

[ATP]

Admittedly, what got me first considering the possibility of a Christian Japan was an Otomo campaign I'd finished in Shogun 2 Total War, so I really don't know all or even most of the ins and outs of feudal Japan either. But the Catholics have a successful record of assimilating the practices of other religions into their Christian framework in order to smooth over the proselytization process, and the Jesuits in particular seemed good at this during the age of exploration. They had some success spreading the faith in both China and Japan before events outside their control (the Pope's ruling against them in the Chinese rites controversy and the rise of staunchly anti-Christian successors to Nobunaga, respectively) happened to derail the progress they'd made.

Perhaps if a Catholic or Catholic-friendly daimyo, such as said Otomo clan or Oda Nobunaga, had decisively prevailed over all comers and consolidated power at the end of the Sengoku period, they could've pulled it off in conjunction with a slightly more accommodationist Catholic hierarchy (tall order during the Counter-Reformation, I know). It's a little outside the original scope of this thread: but I think it'd be interesting if the Catholic Church in Japan ended up venerating Saint Amaterasu, blessed-but-totally-not-divine progenitor of the ruling dynasty, or something along those lines.

Indeed.Oda Nobunaga was pragmatist,not catholic - but for that reason he would never close Japan if he lived,and there was no reason to ban catholic,too

Protestants and some spaniards lied about using catholic in taking over other countries - but that was lie in which shoguns belived,and japaneese catholics paid for that with their lives.

And jesuits really could easily accomodate catholics faith to asian cultures,/Roman Church is catholic Faith accomodated to roman culture after all/ ,but not only protestant,but spanish controlled orders,like dominicans countered that.

Exactly for that reason,i could see Japan Catholic Church run by jesuits and controlled directly by Rome,with spanish and french priest not able to do anything there.

They would still be catholics,at least till masons made pope destroy jesuits in 18th century.After that,we would have jesuit catholic Japan.

 

[ATP]

There is one way in which Shimabara rebellion could change history: if they took more castles and get evacuated by spaniards,there would be big merchant and ronin communities in both Philippines and Mexico.

Communities full of catholic loyal to Habsburg ruling Spain.Which would not like new,enlinghtened Bourbon kings.

As a result,they would :
1.prevent rebals from taking over Mexico
2.In 1835 support Don Carlos in civil war.We would get carlists Mexico and Philipinnes - with better economy and military.
USA would never become superpower,becouse they would not manage to steal from stronger Mexico.England would help Mexico here to counter USA,maybe retake it.

3.Japan would be opened by England,not USA.And face world with strong Philippinos co ruled by japaneese hating their guts.

WW1 would still occur - probably with much weaker USA supporting germans,and Mexico supporting allies.Interesting world,indeed.

 

[History Learner]

Hmm, I see. So then it seems the best POD for a Christian Japan (either in part or full) and/or serious intervention in the region by the Catholic powers would be one during the Sengoku period or at latest before the Siege of Osaka, not Shimabara.

Alternatively, you can play around with events in Europe; if the Dutch Revolt fails, they aren't in a position to help the Japanese authorities for example.

 

[WolfBear]

Alternatively, you can play around with events in Europe; if the Dutch Revolt fails, they aren't in a position to help the Japanese authorities for example.

Did they help the Japanese because they (the Dutch) were Protestant and thus anti-Catholic?

 

[ATP]

Did they help the Japanese because they (the Dutch) were Protestant and thus anti-Catholic?

That.And becouse they belive in gold more then Jesus - they have no problems with stomping on cross,for example,tho have economical privilages.
P.S if rebeliant was evacuated to Mexico and Philippines,we would get entire new world.