raharris1973
Well-known member
In OTL, the last Habsburg Emperor Karl twice tried to reassume power in Hungary in 1921. Facing the threat of invasion from the Little Entente powers, his "regent" and local dictator Admiral Horthy sent him off packing. Karl died brokenhearted in 1924 leaving leaving 12 year old son Otto as heir.
What if Karl had instead a few more years for things to settle down, and for others to take the blame for postwar chaos, stayed healthy, and not tried to get restored until 1926 or so. (I'm presuming his longevity, he died in his forties, was susceptible to his mental/emotional state and self-care).
The rationale for the delay is to give the Entente, big and little, a chance to let its guard down, let others take the fall for hard times, and let nostalgia build.
Further, suppose he focuses his restoration attempt on the Austrian Republic first, rather than Hungary.
The rationale for Austria-first is it's the dynasty's home and it's less immediately exposed to the combined pressures of the Little Entente states (Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia) than Hungary, and with its mountains a bit more defensible than flat Hungary. Additionally, Austria throughout the decade of the 1920s is ruled by Christian Social or independent Chancellors and Presidents, rather than Social Democrats, who should be amenable to monarchic restoration as part of their overall religious and social conservative package of beliefs.
Starting in April 1926, Karl, having organized supporters in Austria and made deals with Austrian Chancellor Rudy Ramek, and Christian Social Party boss Ignaz Seipel, makes a triumphal return to Austria as a wave of street demonstrations and petitions begin calling for the return of the Habsburg monarchy. By May, the Bundesrat and Nationalrat have voted to restore the Habsburg monarchy with Karl as either Emperor, King, or Archduke.
Things could end peacefully and uneventfully after that, but the chances are far less than even. The Little Entente Powers of Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia were focused on the threat of a Habsburg restoration (and assumed designs to reclaim their own lands) more than any other threats.
As the Vienna completes its process of restoring the monarchy, Czechoslovakia, is almost certainly threatening war if Vienna doesn't stop in its tracks and reverse course. It will seek, and may well get the diplomatic, and pledged military support of its partners Yugoslavia, and Romania.
Military, the Czechs and Yugoslavs could invade Austria, the Romanians are further away. Hungary would not grant passage. Sentimentally at least, the Hungarians will be pro-Austrian. If not outright taking the Austrian side militarily against the Little Entente, at a minimum, they will be a non-cooperating neutral, not permitting passage of Little Entente forces through their territory.
Can and would the Czechs and Yugoslavs invade and occupy Austria and overthrow Karl? What would happen after that?
Might Mussolini's Italy denounce Little Entente threats and warn those countries to leave Austria alone, seeking to build up Austria and later Hungary as clients for itself?
If it came to a test of arms, could we see the Little Entente countries attack Austria in 1926 over the restoration, maybe attack the Hungarians too over their non-cooperation, but then the Italians intervene to help the Austrians and take the opportunity to hit the Yugoslavs, take some disputed land, and if they hit them hard enough, try to break off Slovene and Croat states from Belgrade? Might Poland go to war with Czechoslovakia over Teschen to take advantage of Czech preoccupation?
Would Weimar Germany stay entirely out of an Austrian melee that spreads into Central Europe? What about the USSR or Lithuania?
What if Karl had instead a few more years for things to settle down, and for others to take the blame for postwar chaos, stayed healthy, and not tried to get restored until 1926 or so. (I'm presuming his longevity, he died in his forties, was susceptible to his mental/emotional state and self-care).
The rationale for the delay is to give the Entente, big and little, a chance to let its guard down, let others take the fall for hard times, and let nostalgia build.
Further, suppose he focuses his restoration attempt on the Austrian Republic first, rather than Hungary.
The rationale for Austria-first is it's the dynasty's home and it's less immediately exposed to the combined pressures of the Little Entente states (Czechoslovakia, Romania, Yugoslavia) than Hungary, and with its mountains a bit more defensible than flat Hungary. Additionally, Austria throughout the decade of the 1920s is ruled by Christian Social or independent Chancellors and Presidents, rather than Social Democrats, who should be amenable to monarchic restoration as part of their overall religious and social conservative package of beliefs.
Starting in April 1926, Karl, having organized supporters in Austria and made deals with Austrian Chancellor Rudy Ramek, and Christian Social Party boss Ignaz Seipel, makes a triumphal return to Austria as a wave of street demonstrations and petitions begin calling for the return of the Habsburg monarchy. By May, the Bundesrat and Nationalrat have voted to restore the Habsburg monarchy with Karl as either Emperor, King, or Archduke.
Things could end peacefully and uneventfully after that, but the chances are far less than even. The Little Entente Powers of Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia were focused on the threat of a Habsburg restoration (and assumed designs to reclaim their own lands) more than any other threats.
As the Vienna completes its process of restoring the monarchy, Czechoslovakia, is almost certainly threatening war if Vienna doesn't stop in its tracks and reverse course. It will seek, and may well get the diplomatic, and pledged military support of its partners Yugoslavia, and Romania.
Military, the Czechs and Yugoslavs could invade Austria, the Romanians are further away. Hungary would not grant passage. Sentimentally at least, the Hungarians will be pro-Austrian. If not outright taking the Austrian side militarily against the Little Entente, at a minimum, they will be a non-cooperating neutral, not permitting passage of Little Entente forces through their territory.
Can and would the Czechs and Yugoslavs invade and occupy Austria and overthrow Karl? What would happen after that?
Might Mussolini's Italy denounce Little Entente threats and warn those countries to leave Austria alone, seeking to build up Austria and later Hungary as clients for itself?
If it came to a test of arms, could we see the Little Entente countries attack Austria in 1926 over the restoration, maybe attack the Hungarians too over their non-cooperation, but then the Italians intervene to help the Austrians and take the opportunity to hit the Yugoslavs, take some disputed land, and if they hit them hard enough, try to break off Slovene and Croat states from Belgrade? Might Poland go to war with Czechoslovakia over Teschen to take advantage of Czech preoccupation?
Would Weimar Germany stay entirely out of an Austrian melee that spreads into Central Europe? What about the USSR or Lithuania?