History Learner
Well-known member
In September of 1948, Spanish Anarchist exiles-including former members of the French Resistance-attempted to assassinate the Spanish Caudillo by bombing his fishing boat via air. Obviously, this attempt failed and Franco would go on to live until 1975, but what if it hadn't? What if Franco had died then; how would Francoist Spain develop from there?
Unlike OTL 1975, Luis Carrero Blanco is still alive and he is the natural successor that Franco wanted. So the succession is relatively easy, although a Carlist King is likely to be crowned sometime in the 1950s as there is no Unification Degree by Franco and associated purges of Royalists. Until that point the Carlists, since the 1930s, had been extremely powerful and influential, with a strong financial base, armed wing, and youth as well as women's groups; this would also help to give the regime more legitimacy and secure a power base for it, instead of leaving it increasingly as just a personality cult dedicated solely to Franco.
Economics is, however, much trickery to speculate upon. For one, I don't know what Blanco thought about Franco's economic policies, with the latter only moving from autarky in 1956. Doing so in 1948 is obviously better for not just the regime but also for Spain at large, because by the OTL 1960s Spain was absolutely booming to the extent it was speculated that Fascism would make a come-back based upon the success of the Spanish Model:
To get an idea of how much of an effect no autarky and earlier Marshall Aid funding would have:
A booming Spain from the late 1940s on, instead of a late start in the 1960s, might be sufficient to place it firmly on the same level as the UK or France; i.e. a $2 Trillion + economy. I wouldn't be surprised if "Francoist" Spain is able to last until the present given this, in the same way the PRC has outlived the collapse of Global Communism. The question is, however, whether the support/political ability to do such was there, by Blanco and the various factions in the regime.
Unlike OTL 1975, Luis Carrero Blanco is still alive and he is the natural successor that Franco wanted. So the succession is relatively easy, although a Carlist King is likely to be crowned sometime in the 1950s as there is no Unification Degree by Franco and associated purges of Royalists. Until that point the Carlists, since the 1930s, had been extremely powerful and influential, with a strong financial base, armed wing, and youth as well as women's groups; this would also help to give the regime more legitimacy and secure a power base for it, instead of leaving it increasingly as just a personality cult dedicated solely to Franco.
Economics is, however, much trickery to speculate upon. For one, I don't know what Blanco thought about Franco's economic policies, with the latter only moving from autarky in 1956. Doing so in 1948 is obviously better for not just the regime but also for Spain at large, because by the OTL 1960s Spain was absolutely booming to the extent it was speculated that Fascism would make a come-back based upon the success of the Spanish Model:
The biggest success was the acquisition of needed capital. The end of autarky brought in roughly $8 billion worth of foreign direct investment. Increased tourism, twenty million visitors came to Spain, and remittances from abroad supplied funds for needed capital goods. The new policies and flood of money into Spain from abroad fueled a fifteen-year growth in the economy, from $12 billion to $76 billion, that was surpassed only by Japan.
The economic transformation was so powerful that some thought it gave fascism a new lease on life. In an October 7, 1968 editorial entitled “Fascism for the Future,” the American historian Gabriel Jackson speculated that fascism would outlive Franco. As he wrote, “a Fraquist type of dictatorship may continue for decades in Spain and by doing so may provide a model for other nations that achieve a minimum of economic prosperity in the absence of strong traditions of political liberty.”
To get an idea of how much of an effect no autarky and earlier Marshall Aid funding would have:
A booming Spain from the late 1940s on, instead of a late start in the 1960s, might be sufficient to place it firmly on the same level as the UK or France; i.e. a $2 Trillion + economy. I wouldn't be surprised if "Francoist" Spain is able to last until the present given this, in the same way the PRC has outlived the collapse of Global Communism. The question is, however, whether the support/political ability to do such was there, by Blanco and the various factions in the regime.
