Alternate History WI: No World wars or "general" wars in Europe.

[Agent23]

Given how massively the two World Wars and various other European conflicts of the late 19th and early 20th century damaged the entire continent and the world as a whole, I was wondering what would happen if warfare and the appetite for it within the confines of the European continent decreased massively.

And especially how the continent and the planet would look 100 years in the future.

 

[Buba]

Top of mind:
- richer Europe
- USA not a Superpower, but simply a Power
- USA economic growth set back by a few decades
- no communist genocides

 

[Agent23]

Top of mind:
- richer Europe
- USA not a Superpower, but simply a Power
- USA economic growth set back by a few decades
- no communist genocides

A lot less deaths, too.

What do you think will happen with the surplus population, will they move to the colonies and dominion and to the USA, thus bloating the development of those places?

And if that happens and also we do not have the authority of the European powers and their war making potential diminished, and with no Communism to muddy up the waters, would colonial rule gradually morph into more autonomy and the colonies gaining larger European minorities that might eventually start intermarrying with the natives and the new migrants pushing against the large plantstion owners, demanding similar rights as the normal french citizen for exsmple and siding with the locals?

What about technological advancement?

I would assume that some technologies would develop at a slower pace, given that there are no wars to drive innovation, like aerospace, computing, although that was actually invented by a Bulgarian pre WWII.

 

[Buba]

It is possible that population zero growth may come to Europe a generation earlier, to some degree driven by higher wealth.
I do not see any large move to the colonies - those without sizeable white populations are unhealthy.
Still, Brazil, Argentina and USA may take in more than in OTL. The first two - the latter in particular - due to no collapse of economic model, USA - no Red Scare delays immigration control?
Technology will advance roughly at par with OTL.

 

[Agent23]

It is possible that population zero growth may come to Europe a generation earlier, to some degree driven by higher wealth.

I am uncertain about that, many groups continue to breed fast despite being richer for a generation or two, because of their morals.

I can for example see a lot more people moving to South Africa, Canada and some parts of Latin America, and it might not be poor farmers, alone.
Those places will need to industrialize and might start paying decent wages to technically savvy migrants.

I also think that the various colonies will gradually morph into dominions and spheres of influence.

I do not see any large move to the colonies - those without sizeable white populations are unhealthy.
Still, Brazil, Argentina and USA may take in more than in OTL. The first two - the latter in particular - due to no collapse of economic model, USA - no Red Scare delays immigration control?

Well, the USA still got lots of migrants due to all the happenings in Europe.
At one point Chicago actually had more Poles in it than Warsaw did.

Technology will advance roughly at par with OTL.

I dunno, maybe if we have a polite cold war type thing between the Entente, the Central Powers, and the US block that might form.

But I kinda don't see rocketry and aircraft advancing as fast as in OTL.

But the lack of 2 world wars and the horrible mess that Tzarist Russia turned into after the commies got involved, and all the great scientists that got driven away or purged because their science did not go along with shit like Lyzankoism might boost development in other ways.

IMHO at some point the Russians will be forced to adopt a proper constitution and maybe give some areas that were a hedgehog in their pants more autonomy, with other groups getting russified or assimilated due to the high growth rates of the Russian population.

I can see Poland becoming a de fact dominion that has to pay lip service to the Tzar eventually, and two types of Poles arising, the Germanopole and the Russopole.

 

[Buba]

At one point Chicago actually had more Poles in it than Warsaw did.

Maybe ... then again, Warsaw was 1/3rd Jewish, hence possible.

maybe if we have a polite cold war type thing between the Entente, the Central Powers

I don't see the Entente surviving beyond 1915, i.e. the next UK elections which the Tories will win. Entente was a Liberal thing and made possible by Russia being uncharacteristically aware of its weaknesses. But that window was closing fast - look at OTL French and Russian battleship building plans.

 

[Agent23]

I don't see the Entente surviving beyond 1915, i.e. the next UK elections which the Tories will win. It was a Liberal thing and made possible by Russia being uncharacteristically aware of its weaknesses. But that window was closing fast - look at OTL French and Russian battleship building plans.

All Russia had to do was sit put and develop what it already had and consolidate.

The Russo-Japanese war was very bad for them and they lost 2 fleets and almost had a revolution on their hands, also that war made a lot of people think that they were weak enough to just keel over at the smallest application of external pressure.

A major reason why the Krauts for example were so eager to fight them was because Russia was developing very rapidly at the time and they thought that in 10 years the Russians would be too strong to fight.


In any case, I do see some form of a Franko-Russian alliance persisting due to the Kraut matter.


Or, somebody in Russia tries to marry Russian resources and Kraut manufacturing autism.

 

[Buba]

The Paris-Moscow Axis thrives - it is London which stops being cordial.

 

[Agent23]

The Paris-Moscow Axis thrives - it is London which stops being cordial.

Franco-Russo-Murika alliance vs. the Kraut-British sounds entertaining.

 

[Buba]

two types of Poles arising, the Germanopole and the Russopole.

This, in spite of the Polish National Mythos claiming otherwise, is very likely.
I've come across an opinion - no idea how veracious or how much trolling/clickbait - that in the Kingdom of Prussia, given a generation or two, Polish language and identity would be dead.

So it is possible that come 1960 or 1980 that there are only Austropoles and Russopoles.

 

[Agent23]

This, in spite of the Polish National Mythos claiming otherwise, is very likely.
I've come across an opinion - no idea how veracious or how much trolling/clickbait - that in the Kingdom of Prussia, given a generation or two, Polish language and identity would be dead.

So it is possible that come 1960 or 1980 that there are only Austropoles and Russopoles.

So basically one set will be the True Poles and the other the Polish Macedonian equivalent.

 

[ATP]

Given how massively the two World Wars and various other European conflicts of the late 19th and early 20th century damaged the entire continent and the world as a whole, I was wondering what would happen if warfare and the appetite for it within the confines of the European continent decreased massively.

And especially how the continent and the planet would look 100 years in the future.

Not possible,since everybody and his dog wonted short victorious war.
Even if germans do not start anytching,russians or french would do that.
Becouse french wanted REVENGE,and Russia wonted Czech,Lwów, and Constantinopole.

Thanks to that England would support Germany,but - we would still have bloodbath.

All Russia had to do was sit put and develop what it already had and consolidate.

The Russo-Japanese war was very bad for them and they lost 2 fleets and almost had a revolution on their hands, also that war made a lot of people think that they were weak enough to just keel over at the smallest application of external pressure.

A major reason why the Krauts for example were so eager to fight them was because Russia was developing very rapidly at the time and they thought that in 10 years the Russians would be too strong to fight.


In any case, I do see some form of a Franko-Russian alliance persisting due to the Kraut matter.


Or, somebody in Russia tries to marry Russian resources and Kraut manufacturing autism.

True,germans belived ,that after 1916 it would be too late.
But - there was strong german faction in Moscov/thanks to them they do not take East Prussia in 1914/ ,they could made tsar german bitch.

This, in spite of the Polish National Mythos claiming otherwise, is very likely.
I've come across an opinion - no idea how veracious or how much trolling/clickbait - that in the Kingdom of Prussia, given a generation or two, Polish language and identity would be dead.

So it is possible that come 1960 or 1980 that there are only Austropoles and Russopoles.

That is bullshit,becouse prussians were not nazis.They could beat few polish children to death and persecute us economically,but we still keep winning,and develop stronger cyvil society.
Prussians were leaving polish lands,unless somebody paid them to live there and persecute us - but becouse they never tried genocide us like they did with Herero,it only made us stronger.

But,we could have 2 kind of poles - rich dudes who knew how to create underground polish society,and russian-like poor dudes who drink a much and could not unite for anytching.

 

[TheRomanSlayer]

All Russia had to do was sit put and develop what it already had and consolidate.

The Russo-Japanese war was very bad for them and they lost 2 fleets and almost had a revolution on their hands, also that war made a lot of people think that they were weak enough to just keel over at the smallest application of external pressure.

A major reason why the Krauts for example were so eager to fight them was because Russia was developing very rapidly at the time and they thought that in 10 years the Russians would be too strong to fight.


In any case, I do see some form of a Franko-Russian alliance persisting due to the Kraut matter.


Or, somebody in Russia tries to marry Russian resources and Kraut manufacturing autism.

Convince the idiot Tsar Nicholas II that respecting Japan’s interest in Korea would be beneficial in exchange for Japan recognizing Russian interest in Manchuria. Alternatively, you could also have a bigger Japanese failure of the Gapsin Coup attempt that discourages Japanese adventurism in Korea, though that would require a pre-1900 PoD.

Although on the other hand, if the Qing had been a bit smarter in their dealings with the foreigners, that may potentially prevent the Boxer Rebellion from breaking out.