Alternate History WI: The 1998 Iranian invasion of Afghanistan.

[Agent23]

So, apparently in 1998, due to a host of incidents and disputes, Afghanistan almost got invaded by Iran, with the Iranians massing over a quarter million troops on the border.

What would have happened if Iran had invaded?

 

[lordhen]

So, apparently in 1998, due to a host of incidents and disputes, Afghanistan almost got invaded by Iran, with the Iranians massing over a quarter million troops on the border.

What would have happened if Iran had invaded?

Iran would win the battle but if they occupy Afghanistan will lose the war, just ask the British, Soviets and Americans.

 

[Agent23]

Iran would win the battle but if they occupy Afghanistan will lose the war, just ask the British, Soviets and Americans.

Afghanistan is not a homogeneous place, there is a sizable Iranian/Persian minority there, and they had deep ties with the Northern Alliance.

They also have a much better motivation to fight and win on account of Afghanistan being able to choke off a strategically important portion of their water supply and are closer culturally to those they would be occupying.
To this you must add their close ties with the Northern Alliance.

So it is not necessary that they will do as badly as the others

 

[ATP]

Afghanistan is not a homogeneous place, there is a sizable Iranian/Persian minority there, and they had deep ties with the Northern Alliance.

They also have a much better motivation to fight and win on account of Afghanistan being able to choke off a strategically important portion of their water supply and are closer culturally to those they would be occupying.
To this you must add their close ties with the Northern Alliance.

So it is not necessary that they will do as badly as the others

If they keep only friendly territory - yes.
Otherwise,they get beaten,and there is possibility of war with Pakistan.

BUT,MOST IMPORTANT - BUSH MUST INVADE SOMEBODY ELSE IN 2001

 

[Agent23]

If they keep only friendly territory - yes.
Otherwise,they get beaten,and there is possibility of war with Pakistan.

BUT,MOST IMPORTANT - BUSH MUST INVADE SOMEBODY ELSE IN 2001

There are other ethnic groups over there, too, Tajiks, Uzbeks, lots of other non-Pushtuns, it is possible that those groups will be willing allies, and likely that they will get support from their ethnic homelands.

 

[filipina84]

If they keep only friendly territory - yes.
Otherwise,they get beaten,and there is possibility of war with Pakistan.

BUT,MOST IMPORTANT - BUSH MUST INVADE SOMEBODY ELSE IN 2001

Bush 43 will probably invade Iraq two years earlier or go after Syria as Cheney allegedly suggested.