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WI: The Frondeurs defeat Louis XIV

Circle of Willis

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France was plunged into a number of civil wars, collectively called 'La Fronde' after the slings used by Parisian rebels, immediately after its victory in the Thirty Years' War. To keep a long and complicated story short, basically the rebel 'frondeurs' opposed the French Crown's efforts to jack up taxes (to pay for the costs of fighting said 30YW, plus even more wars against Spain & other powers) and infringe on the established rights of the French parlements and nobility. Louis XIV defeated the rebels, despite their vast number and the leadership of figures such as the Grand Condé (who had previously defeated the Spanish at Rocroi and other battles in the last stages of the 30YW), and his victory cleared the path for him to become the famously absolutist, all-centralizing Sun King.

So, what if the Fronde had gone the other way and parliamentary/aristocratic forces humbled Louis and his ministers (of whom Cardinal Mazarin was the chief) instead?

Bonus: One of my first threads on the Sietch asked what if Charles I and the Royalists had won the English Civil War, where historically the Parliament's victory and the beheading of that king decisively charted England's course toward becoming a constitutional, parliamentary monarchy. What if both were to happen - that is to say, the Fronde wins in France but the Cavaliers prevail in England? How would England becoming absolutist while France goes the road of Parliament les parlements, the opposite of how they evolved IRL, affect the world?
 

PsihoKekec

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Centralization by the Louis XIV made the France that we know today, if it fails then we France would not be able to wage series of wars against the rest of Europe through 17th and 18th century, there would probably also be series of Fronde-like small scale civil wars, as various factions struggled for supremacy in internal matters. The butterflies coming from these developments are a legion. For example, Corsica would most likely never become part of France, preventing Napoleon's career.
While Europe would most likely come to the fortification standards as envisioned by Vauban it would probably not be named after him, as France would simply not have the money and willingness to conduct such an expansive fortification program.
 

Circle of Willis

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Centralization by the Louis XIV made the France that we know today, if it fails then we France would not be able to wage series of wars against the rest of Europe through 17th and 18th century, there would probably also be series of Fronde-like small scale civil wars, as various factions struggled for supremacy in internal matters. The butterflies coming from these developments are a legion. For example, Corsica would most likely never become part of France, preventing Napoleon's career.
While Europe would most likely come to the fortification standards as envisioned by Vauban it would probably not be named after him, as France would simply not have the money and willingness to conduct such an expansive fortification program.
Interesting. I agree that a late 17th/early-to-mid-18th century without France being top dog on the continent would be radically different. At the very least, Louis seems to have spent many years and much resources grinding away at the Habsburg possessions around France until the War of the Spanish Succession resulted in Spain coming under Bourbon management. Without him in the picture, could we see a Habsburg reunification once the Spanish Habsburgs go extinct (probably around the turn of the century if not a little later, much as was the case IRL; can't imagine they'll be able to avoid a Carlos II-tier mess forever), and the restoration of the empire of Charles V - albeit probably in a weaker, less wealthy state - under Austrian leadership?
 

PsihoKekec

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This is something that the Perfidious Albion simply could not allow, so we would see a coalition (probably including France) against Hapsburgs, instead of coalition against France. It would be even more heterogeneous and quarrelsome coalition than OTL.
 

Circle of Willis

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Yes - IIRC the possibility of a Habsburg reunification under Charles VI (the Habsburg that was originally supposed to inherit Spain if the Grand Alliance had beaten Louis XIV) following the death of his brother, the Holy Roman Emperor Joseph I, was one of the factors pushing the other Allies (Britain most of all) to the peace table. I'd imagine just having the Habsburg domains split between Charles and Joseph, with one ruling in Spain and the other getting Austria & the HRE, to preserve the status quo is the cleanest way to untangle the mess of Carlos' succession ITL. But if one or both of them die without sons (in the latter case marking the demise of the Habsburgs' male line altogether), as also happened historically, all bets are off...
 

WolfBear

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Bonus: One of my first threads on the Sietch asked what if Charles I and the Royalists had won the English Civil War, where historically the Parliament's victory and the beheading of that king decisively charted England's course toward becoming a constitutional, parliamentary monarchy. What if both were to happen - that is to say, the Fronde wins in France but the Cavaliers prevail in England? How would England becoming absolutist while France goes the road of Parliament les parlements, the opposite of how they evolved IRL, affect the world?
If England becomes absolutist, how would this affect the colonization and development of North America, especially but not only the territories that are now a part of the US?
 

Circle of Willis

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If England becomes absolutist, how would this affect the colonization and development of North America, especially but not only the territories that are now a part of the US?
A Puritan rising in Massachusetts that gets crushed by Royalist forces from Virginia and England proper is likely, according to the discussion from the previous thread. In general America will probably not become independent, much less the pillar of constitutional republicanism & liberal individualism we know today ITL, unless you somehow turn Cavalier Virginia (which will be even more firmly established as the most powerful colony) against its motherland. (Hell it wouldn't be that even if Massachusetts does beat the odds and break free of the Crown, an aggrieved Puritan theocracy flooded by refugees fleeing the King's wrath - if they don't flock to the Netherlands and Scandinavia/north Germany first - and founded in the flames of uprising against said King would almost certainly resemble John Calvin's Geneva writ large rather than the Massachusetts of John and Samuel Adams)
 

WolfBear

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A Puritan rising in Massachusetts that gets crushed by Royalist forces from Virginia and England proper is likely, according to the discussion from the previous thread. In general America will probably not become independent, much less the pillar of constitutional republicanism & liberal individualism we know today ITL, unless you somehow turn Cavalier Virginia (which will be even more firmly established as the most powerful colony) against its motherland. (Hell it wouldn't be that even if Massachusetts does beat the odds and break free of the Crown, an aggrieved Puritan theocracy flooded by refugees fleeing the King's wrath - if they don't flock to the Netherlands and Scandinavia/north Germany first - and founded in the flames of uprising against said King would almost certainly resemble John Calvin's Geneva writ large rather than the Massachusetts of John and Samuel Adams)
If Massachusetts looks like Geneva, then what European city does Virginia look like?
 
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